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Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 3 2008, 15:21:46     : The Guardian: Ïðàâäà î Þæíîé Îñåòèè

http://www.inopressa.ru/guardian/2008/11/03/14:34:16/osetia
Ïðàâäà î Þæíîé Îñåòèè
Ñåéìóñ Ìèëí

Âîçëîæèâ âèíó íà Ðîññèþ, Çàïàä èãíîðèðóåò íîâûå äîêàçàòåëüñòâà âîåííûõ ïðåñòóïëåíèé Ãðóçèè

"Òîëüêî òåïåðü, çíà÷èò, îíè íàì ãîâîðÿò" – ýòèìè ãîðüêî-èðîíè÷íûìè ñëîâàì íà÷èíàåò ñâîþ êîëîíêó â The Guardian æóðíàëèñò Ñåéìóñ Ìèëí. ×åðåç äâà ìåñÿöà ïîñëå âîéíû íà Êàâêàçå, âèíà çà êîòîðóþ çàïàäíûìè ïîëèòèêàìè è ÑÌÈ áûëà âîçëîæåíà íà Ðîññèþ, ðàññëåäîâàíèå BBC îáíàðóæèëî, ÷òî âñå áûëî ñîâñåì íå òàê.

Ôèëüì Òèì Óýìóýëëà, âûøåäøèé íà ýòîé íåäåëå â ïåðåäà÷å Newsnight è íà Ðàäèî 4, ïî ñëîâàì êîëóìíèñòà, íå òîëüêî ïîäòâåðæäàåò, ÷òî ïîääåðæèâàâøàÿñÿ Çàïàäîì Ãðóçèÿ ñîâåðøèëà àêò àãðåññèè â íî÷ü íà 7 àâãóñòà, íî â íåì ïðåäñòàâëåíî äîñòàòî÷íîå êîëè÷åñòâî äîêàçàòåëüñòâ ñàìûõ ðàçíûõ âîåííûõ ïðåñòóïëåíèé, ñîâåðøåííûõ ãðóçèíñêîé àðìèåé.

Ñðåäè íèõ, ïðîäîëæàåò Ñåéìóñ Ìèëí, îáñòðåë ïîäâàëîâ æèëûõ äîìîâ, ãäå ïðÿòàëîñü ìèðíîå íàñåëåíèå, èç òàíêîâ è àðòèëëåðèéñêèõ îðóäèé, áåñïîðÿäî÷íûå áîìáàðäèðîâêè æèëûõ êâàðòàëîâ è ïðåäíàìåðåííîå óáèéñòâî ãðàæäàíñêèõ ëèö, âêëþ÷àÿ áåæåíöåâ èç Öõèíâàëè. Òàêèì îáðàçîì, ôèëüì äåëàåò óòâåðæäåíèÿ Ãðóçèè î òîì, ÷òî îíà ââåëà âîéñêà â Þæíóþ Îñåòèþ ïîñëå âõîæäåíèÿ òóäà ðîññèéñêèõ ñèë, áåñïî÷âåííûìè.

Òîãäà, ïèøåò Ìèëí, ïðàâèòåëüñòâî Ãðóçèè çàÿâèëî, ÷òî øòóðì Öõèíâàëè áûë ïðèçâàí "âîññòàíîâèòü êîíñòèòóöèîííûé ïîðÿäîê" è ïðîòèâîñòîÿòü ïðîâîêàöèÿì ñî ñòîðîíû þæíîîñåòèíñêèõ ñèë. Íåóäèâèòåëüíî, ÷òî ÷åëîâåê, îòäàâøèé ïðèêàç î ââîäå âîéñê â Îñåòèþ, ïðåçèäåíò Ìèõàèë Ñààêàøâèëè, îòðèöàåò âñå îáâèíåíèÿ â âîåííûõ ïðåñòóïëåíèÿõ. Íî êàê áûòü, çàäàåòñÿ âîïðîñîì æóðíàëèñò, ñ åãî ïîêðîâèòåëÿìè â Àíãëèè è Àìåðèêå, êîòîðûå â òî âðåìÿ ãîâîðèëè, ÷òî "àãðåññèÿ Ðîññèè íå äîëæíà îñòàòüñÿ áåç îòâåòà"?

Êàê ñîîáùàåòñÿ, áðèòàíñêèé ìèíèñòð èíîñòðàííûõ äåë Äýâèä Ìèëèáýíä òåïåðü ïðèçíàåò, ÷òî Ãðóçèÿ âåëà ñåáÿ "îïðîìåò÷èâî", è ãîâîðèò, ÷òî ñëåäóåò îòíåñòèñü ê îáâèíåíèÿì â âîåííûõ ïðåñòóïëåíèÿõ "ïðåäåëüíî ñåðüåçíî". Äýíèåëü Ôðèä, ïîìîùíèê ãîññåêðåòàðÿ ÑØÀ, òåì âðåìåíåì ïðèçíàë, ÷òî ãðóçèíñêàÿ àòàêà áûëà "îøèáî÷íîé íà íåñêîëüêèõ óðîâíÿõ", íî çàÿâèë, ÷òî äèñêóññèÿ î âîåííûõ ïðåñòóïëåíèÿõ "åäâà ëè èìååò ñìûñë".

Ïî ìíåíèþ àâòîðà, â ñàìîì íà÷àëå àâãóñòîâñêîãî êîíôëèêòà çàïàäíûå ÑÌÈ ñîîáùàëè î ïðîèñõîäÿùåì íà Êàâêàçå îòíîñèòåëüíî îáúåêòèâíî, íî áûñòðî ïåðåêëþ÷èëèñü â ðåæèì "õîëîäíîé âîéíû" ïîñëå òîãî, êàê Ðîññèÿ âûñòóïèëà ïðîòèâ êëèåíòà ÑØÀ è ïðîòèâ ðàñøèðåíèÿ ÍÀÒÎ â ýòîì ðåãèîíå. À ñâèäåòåëüñòâà òîãî, êòî æå íà÷àë ýòó âîéíó, áûëè ïðîñòî ñêðûòû ïðè ïîìîùè âûñîêîýôôåêòèâíîé ïèàð-àêöèè Òáèëèñè.

Îòìåòàÿ îáâèíåíèÿ â ñâîé àäðåñ, êîëóìíèñò ïðèâîäèò ïîÿâèâøèåñÿ íà ýòîé íåäåëå äàííûå ïðàâîçàùèòíîé îðãàíèçàöèè Human Rights Watch, ïî ìíåíèþ êîòîðîé íå ìåíåå 300-400 ìèðíûõ æèòåëåé ïîãèáëè â Öõèíâàëè â íî÷ü íà 7 àâãóñòà.
_________________
A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 3 2008, 15:26:43     :

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/31/russia-georgia
The truth about South Ossetia
After the west heaped blame on Russia for the conflict, it ignores new evidence of Georgia's crimes of aggression
Comments (262)


So now they tell us. Two months after the brief but bloody war in the Caucasus which was overwhelmingly blamed on Russia by western politicians and media at the time, a serious investigation by the BBC has uncovered a very different story.

Not only does the report by Tim Whewell – aired this week on Newsnight and on Radio 4's File on Four - find strong evidence confirming western-backed Georgia as the aggressor on the night of August 7. It also assembles powerful testimony of wide-ranging war crimes carried out by the Georgian army in its attack on the contested region of South Ossetia.

They include the targeting of apartment block basements – where civilians were taking refuge – with tank shells and Grad rockets, the indiscriminate bombardment of residential districts and the deliberate killing of civilians, including those fleeing the South Ossetian capital of Tskinvali.
The carefully balanced report – which also details evidence of ethnic cleansing by South Ossetian paramilitaries – cuts the ground from beneath later Georgian claims that its attack on South Ossetia followed the start of a Russian invasion the previous night.

At the time, the Georgian government said its assault on Tskinvali was intended to "restore constitutional order" in an area it has never ruled, as well as to counter South Ossetian paramilitary provocations. Georgian intelligence subsequently claimed to have found the tape of an intercepted phone call backing up its Russian invasion story – but even Georgia's allies balk at a claim transparently intended to bolster its shaky international legal position .

Naturally the man who ordered the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia, president Mikheil Saakashvili, denies the war crimes accusations. But what of his Anglo-American sponsors, who insisted at the time that "Russian aggression must not go unanswered"?

British foreign secretary David Miliband now accepts Georgia was "reckless" and says he treats the war crimes allegations "extremely seriously". US assistant secretary of state, Daniel Fried, meanwhile concedes Georgia's attack on Tskhinvali was "wrong on several levels", but feels that discussion of its war crimes is "not terribly useful".

In the wake of the Georgian attack, Russian troops moved into Georgia proper, destroying Georgian military facilities used to mount the original assault – and inflicting their own civilian casualties in the process, notably in Gori. Earlier this month they pulled back from their Georgian buffer zone into now nominally-independent South Ossetia.

At the start of the August conflict, western media reporting was relatively even-handed, but rapidly switched into full-blown cold war revival mode as Russia turned the tables on the US's Georgian client regime and Nato expansion in the region. Clear initial evidence of who started the war and Georgian troops' killing spree in Tskhinvali was buried or even denied in a highly effective PR operation from Tbilisi.

Within a week, the former Foreign Office special adviser David Clark was for example accusing me on Comment is free of making an "important error of fact" by stating that "several hundreds civilians" had been killed by Georgian forces in Tskhinvali.

I based that on several reports, including in the Observer. Clark insisted there was "no independent support for this claim". But, as reported by the BBC this week, Human Rights Watch now regards the figure of 300-400 civilian dead in Tskhinvali as a "useful starting point".
Meanwhile, with the exception of a small item in the Independent, Whewell's significant new evidence about what actually took place in a conflict likely to have far-reaching strategic consequences has been simply ignored by the rest of the mainstream media.
_________________
A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 7 2008, 13:48:26     :

http://www.inopressa.ru/nytimes/2008/11/07/13:15:48/georgia

Ãðóçèíñêàÿ âåðñèÿ âîéíû ïîä âîïðîñîì

Êðèñòîôåð ×èâåðñ è Ýëåí Áàððè

Êàê ïèøåò ñåãîäíÿ The New York Times, ïîÿâèâøèåñÿ íåäàâíî îöåíêè íåçàâèñèìûõ âîåííûõ íàáëþäàòåëåé èç ÎÁÑÅ âíîâü çàñòàâëÿþò îáðàòèòüñÿ ê âîïðîñó î òîì, êàê íà÷àëàñü âîéíà ìåæäó Ðîññèåé è Ãðóçèåé, è ñòàâÿò ïîä ñîìíåíèå çàÿâëåíèÿ Ãðóçèè î òîì, ÷òî îíà ëèøü îáîðîíÿëàñü îò íàïàäåíèé Ðîññèè è ñåïàðàòèñòîâ.

Ñîãëàñíî íîâûì äàííûì, îòìå÷àþò àâòîðû ñòàòüè, íåîïûòíàÿ ãðóçèíñêàÿ àðìèÿ íàíåñëà óäàð ïî ñòîëèöå ñåïàðàòèñòîâ, Öõèíâàëè, áåñïîðÿäî÷íûì àðòèëëåðèéñêèì è ðàêåòíûì îãíåì.  ðåçóëüòàòå ïîñòðàäàëè ìèðíûå æèòåëè, ðîññèéñêèå ìèðîòâîðöû è áåçîðóæíûå ìåæäóíàðîäíûå íàáëþäàòåëè.

Ýòî ñòàâèò âîïðîñ î ÷åñòíîñòè ãðóçèíñêîé ñòîðîíû, òàê íàñòîé÷èâî ãîâîðèâøåé î íàíåñåíèè òî÷å÷íûõ óäàðîâ ïî þæíîîñåòèíñêîé ñòîëèöå. Ïî âåðñèè Òáèëèñè, ýòî áûëî âûíóæäåííûì îòâåòîì íà àðòîáñòðåë ãðóçèíñêèõ ñåë, ïðèçâàííûì âîññòàíîâèòü ïîðÿäîê è ïðîòèâîñòîÿòü ðîññèéñêîìó âòîðæåíèþ.

 òî æå âðåìÿ, êàê îòìå÷àþò ìåæäóíàðîäíûå íàáëþäàòåëè, â òå÷åíèå 7-8 àâãóñòà ãðóçèíñêèå ñíàðÿäû è ðàêåòû âçðûâàëèñü â ãîðîäå êàæäûå 15-20 ñåêóíä, è òîëüêî â òå÷åíèå ïåðâîãî ÷àñà îáñòðåëà ãîðîäà íå ìåíåå 48 âçðûâîâ ïðîçâó÷àëî â çîíå ïðîæèâàíèÿ ìèðíûõ æèòåëåé. Òàêæå íàáëþäàòåëè íå ñìîãëè ïîäòâåðäèòü èíôîðìàöèþ î ìàññèðîâàííûõ áîìáàðäèðîâêàõ ãðóçèíñêèõ ñåë â òîò âå÷åð.

Ãðóçèíñêèå îôèöèàëüíûå ëèöà, ïèøåò NYT, îïðîâåðãàþò ýòè çàÿâëåíèÿ è óæå ïðèçâàëè çàïàäíûõ ëèäåðîâ íå ïðèíèìàòü èõ â ðàñ÷åò. Òàê, çàìåñòèòåëü ìèíèñòðà èíîñòðàííûõ äåë Ãðóçèè Ãèãà Áîêåðèÿ ïîïðîáîâàë ïîøóòèòü: "Êòî òàì ñ÷èòàë âçðûâû? Ýòî çâó÷èò íåñêîëüêî ñòðàííî". Ìîñêâà ñ ðàäîñòüþ âîñïðèíÿëà çàÿâëåíèÿ íàáëþäàòåëåé, ïîñêîëüêó îíè, êàê çàÿâèë Ãðèãîðèé Êàðàñèí, çàìåñòèòåëü ìèíèñòðà èíîñòðàííûõ äåë, îòðàæàþò "äåéñòâèòåëüíûé õîä ñîáûòèé, ïðåäøåñòâîâàâøèõ ãðóçèíñêîé àãðåññèè".

Ìåæäóíàðîäíûå íàáëþäàòåëè, óòî÷íÿåò èçäàíèå, ðàáîòàþò â ðåãèîíå ïî ìàíäàòó Îðãàíèçàöèè ïî áåçîïàñíîñòè è ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâó â Åâðîïå (ÎÁÑÅ) ñ ìîìåíòà ïðåäûäóùåãî ãðóçèíî-îñåòèíñêîãî êîíôëèêòà â äåâÿíîñòûõ ãîäàõ. Íàáëþäàòåëè, ñðåäè êîòîðûõ â òîì ÷èñëå åñòü ôèíñêèé ìàéîð, êàïèòàí áåëîðóññêèõ ÂÄ è ïîëüñêèé ãðàæäàíñêèé ñïåöèàëèñò, ïðîâåëè äâà çàêðûòûõ áðèôèíãà ïåðåä èíîñòðàííûìè äèïëîìàòàìè â Òáèëèñè – îäèí â àâãóñòå, à äðóãîé â îêòÿáðå. Ëþäè, áûâøèå íà îáîèõ ìåðîïðèÿòèÿõ, ðàññêàçàëè The New York Times, î ÷åì òàì øëà ðå÷ü.

Êàê ñîîáùèëà ìèññèÿ ÎÁÑÅ 7 àâãóñòà â 15:00, áûëî çàìå÷åíî ìàññèðîâàííîå ïåðåìåùåíèå ãðóçèíñêîé àðòèëëåðèè è ðåàêòèâíûõ óñòàíîâîê "Ãðàä" ê ñåâåðó îò ãîðîäà Ãîðè.  18:10 òîãî æå äíÿ ðîññèéñêèå ìèðîòâîðöû ñîîáùèëè î ïðåäïîëîæèòåëüíî ãðóçèíñêîì àðòîáñòðåëå îñåòèíñêîãî ñåëà Õåòàãóðîâî. Èíôîðìàöèÿ íå ïîëó÷èëà äðóãèõ ïîäòâåðæäåíèé, à âñêîðå, îêîëî 19:00, Ãðóçèÿ îáúÿâèëà îá îäíîñòîðîííåì ïåðåìèðèè.

Îäíàêî â 23:00 ãðóçèíñêèå íîâîñòíûå àãåíòñòâà ñîîáùèëè îá àðòîáñòðåëå ãðóçèíñêèõ äåðåâåíü è î íà÷àëå îïåðàöèè ïî "âîññòàíîâëåíèþ êîíñòèòóöèîííîãî ïîðÿäêà" â Þæíîé Îñåòèè. Âñêîðå íà÷àëàñü áîìáàðäèðîâêà Öõèíâàëè.

Êàê îòìå÷àåò èçäàíèå, íàáëþäàòåëè ãîâîðÿò î òîì, ÷òî äî íà÷àëà ãðóçèíñêîãî îáñòðåëà íå áûëî ñëûøíî âçðûâîâ ðàçðûâàþùèõñÿ ñíàðÿäîâ. Ïðè ýòîì äâå èç ÷åòûðåõ ãðóçèíñêèõ äåðåâåíü, êîòîðûå, ïî âåðñèè Òáèëèñè, áûëè îáñòðåëÿíû, íàõîäÿòñÿ â íåïîñðåäñòâåííîé áëèçîñòè îò èõ øòàá-êâàðòèðû. Áîëåå òîãî, íàáëþäàòåëè âåëè ïîäñ÷åò êîëè÷åñòâà ðàçîðâàâøèõ ñíàðÿäîâ ñ íà÷àëà ãðóçèíñêîãî îáñòðåëà â 23:35.  23:45 âçðûâû ïðîèñõîäèëè ñ èíòåðâàëîì â 15-20 ñåêóíä. Óæå â 00:15 8 àâãóñòà êîìàíäóþùèé ðîññèéñêèìè ìèðîòâîðöàìè ãåíåðàë-ìàéîð Ì. Êóëàõìåòîâ ñîîáùèë, ÷òî ïî íèì áûë íàíåñåí óäàð, à åãî ïîäðàçäåëåíèå ïîíåñëî ïîòåðè. Ê 00:35 ìèññèè ÎÁÑÅ óäàëîñü çàôèêñèðîâàòü áîëåå ñòà âçðûâîâ â Öõèíâàëè, èç íèõ 48 ïðîçâó÷àëî âáëèçè åå çäàíèÿ, ðàñïîëàãàâøåãîñÿ â ìèðíîì êâàðòàëå. Ñîãëàñíî çàÿâëåíèþ ðîññèéñêîãî âîåííîãî âåäîìñòâà, ê óòðó 8 àâãóñòà äâîå ðîññèéñêèõ ñîëäàò áûëè óáèòû, ïÿòåðî – ðàíåíû.

Ãðóçèíñêàÿ ñòîðîíà óòâåðæäàåò, ÷òî óäàð áûë òî÷å÷íûì, à ãîðîä áûë ðàçðóøåí ðîññèéñêèì êîíòðóäàðîì íà ñëåäóþùèé äåíü. Îäíîâðåìåííî, ïîä÷åðêèâàþò àâòîðû ñòàòüè, â Òáèëèñè óäàðû ïî ìèðíûì êâàðòàëàìè îáúÿñíèëè òåì, ÷òî îñåòèíû ñêðûâàëè îðóæèå â ãðàæäàíñêèõ çäàíèÿõ. Ýòó òî÷êó çðåíèÿ ïîääåðæàë è çàìåñòèòåëü ïîìîùíèêà ãîññåêðåòàðÿ ÑØÀ Ìýòüþ Áðàéçà.  òî æå âðåìÿ, ïèøåò èçäàíèå, ãëàâà ìèññèè ÎÁÑÅ â Ãðóçèè, áûâøèé êàïèòàí áðèòàíñêîé àðìèè Ðàéàí Ãðèñò íàçâàë íàïàäåíèå ãðóçèíñêîé ñòîðîíû "áåñïîðÿäî÷íûì íàïàäåíèåì íà ãîðîä êàê òàêîâîé".  àâãóñòå Ãðèñò ïðîâåë áðèôèíã ïåðåä äèïëîìàòàìè ÅÑ, íà êîòîðîì èçëîæèë ñâîþ òî÷êó çðåíèÿ. Îäíàêî âñêîðå îí ïîäàë â îòñòàâêó ïî íåèçâåñòíîé ïðè÷èíå. Âòîðîé áðèôèíã ïåðåä âîåííûìè àòòàøå áûë ïðîâåäåí êîìàíäèðîì ßíãîì óæå â îêòÿáðå, íà íåì áûëà âíîâü èçëîæåíà ïîçèöèÿ íàáëþäàòåëåé.

Òðóäíî ðàçîáðàòüñÿ ñðåäè âçàèìíûõ îáâèíåíèé Ðîññèè è Ãðóçèè, ïèøóò àâòîðû ñòàòüè, îäíàêî áåç îòâåòà îñòàåòñÿ âîïðîñ: ÷òî æå èçìåíèëîñü ñ 19:00 7 àâãóñòà, êîãäà Ñààêàøâèëè îáúÿâèë î ïåðåìèðèè, äî 23:30 òîãî æå äíÿ, êîãäà îí ïðèêàçàë íà÷àòü áîåâûå äåéñòâèÿ? Êàê îòìå÷àåòñÿ, Ðîññèÿ è Þæíàÿ Îñåòèÿ ïîëàãàþò, ÷òî ýòî áûëà óëîâêà, ÷òîáû îáåñïå÷èòü âîçìîæíîñòü ïåðåãðóïïèðîâêè ñèë è ââåñòè â çàáëóæäåíèå ìèðíûõ æèòåëåé.

Íè Ãðóçèÿ, íè åå çàïàäíûå ñîþçíèêè, ïèøåò NYT, ïîêà ÷òî íå ïðåäñòàâèëè íè îäíîãî óáåäèòåëüíîãî äîêàçàòåëüñòâà òîãî, ÷òî Ðîññèÿ äåéñòâèòåëüíî ââîäèëà âîéñêà, èëè òîãî, ÷òî ñèòóàöèÿ è âïðÿìü òðåáîâàëà ïîëíîìàñøòàáíîãî âîåííîãî âìåøàòåëüñòâà. Ïðåäñòàâëåííûå òåëåôîííûå ïåðåõâàòû, ïî ðîññèéñêîé âåðñèè, îòðàæàþò íå áîëåå ÷åì òûëîâûå ïåðåìåùåíèÿ ïîäðàçäåëåíèé. À äàííûå îïðîñîâ æèòåëåé ÿêîáû îáñòðåëÿííûõ ãðóçèíñêèõ ñåë ïðîòèâîðå÷èâû.

Êàê çàêëþ÷àþò àâòîðû ñòàòüè, íàáëþäàòåëè ìèññèè ñòàâÿò òåïåðü ÑØÀ â ñëîæíîå ïîëîæåíèå. Ñ îäíîé ñòîðîíû, Âàøèíãòîí âñå ýòè ãîäû ïîääåðæèâàë ðåæèì Ñààêàøâèëè, ñ äðóãîé – îí âñåãäà ïîëàãàëñÿ íà ïðîôåññèîíàëèçì ÎÁÑÅ.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 11 2008, 22:05:57     :

http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/11/10/georgia-russia-obama-oped-cx_mk_1111kaylan.html
Georgia, Russia And The New Administration
Melik Kaylan 11.11.08, 12:00 AM ET

We can ask the world to give Obama breathing space to get his thoughts in order before, as Joe Biden had it, other countries "test" him with all manner of impossible crises. Not as preposterous as it sounds, this notion of asking the world to hold off, considering Obama generates so much genuine goodwill abroad and, after all, his decisions will shape other countries' futures significantly.

Any countries found to be misbehaving prematurely will instantly get the dog-in-a-manger treatment, for with George Bush gone, whose fault could it be but their own? But no, the Taliban won't stay their barbarism an extra hour for popularity's sake.

Perhaps we can adjust our view of the world, instead, so crises just don't seem as imminent or morally exigent. The latter approach seems to be prevailing. Witness the recent sudden uptick in media noise about the Russia-Georgia conflict.

On Nov. 6, in a long expository article, The New York Times informed us that, according to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Tbilisi had (a) initiated the hostilities and (b) done so with indiscriminate bombing of the South Ossetian capital without regard to civilian casualties--despite Georgian claims to the contrary. All sides consider the OSCE to be a highly dependable, impartial, monitoring body with long experience in the region.

On Nov. 8, the BBC Web site carried an oddly inchoate report that the OSCE had failed to warn member countries of the impending conflict. It quoted a senior OSCE official, who has since resigned, as saying he had "warned of Georgia's military activity before its move into the South Ossetia region" and his bosses failed to pass it on. His bosses deny his claims.

Whatever the BBC is pretending to report there, their subtext sneaks through loud and clear--Georgia invaded first. If Georgia invaded first, Russia was provoked, Russia could not but respond, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is a trigger-happy maniac, we should back off from confrontation with Moscow, this is no incipient or even full-fledged Cold War casus belli to test Obama, he can press the refresh button and the new world will pop up as a tabula rasa.

In the G.W. era this would fall under "faith-based" as opposed to "reality-based" reasoning. The Times and BBC can lay out their dream narrative all they want, but it's unlikely that Obama--as sober and intentional a politician as it's possible to wake up to with a hangover--will buy into it. Biden certainly won't.

Either way, they won't have a choice as Ex-President Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev ply their brutalist imperial course. Medvedev made his sentiments clear when he delivered his Moscow State of the Union speech sans any single reference to the U.S. election results. Meaning: Russia acts unilaterally no matter what happens elsewhere.

And Georgia? I have publicly defended Georgia's actions in this space, and others and I count Georgian President Saakashvili as a personal friend. Nothing has changed. Here's the real continuum of events, as I can best decipher them, that led to Aug. 7 and Aug. 8 when the hostilities escalated into full blown conflict.

First off, I cannot dispute the OSCE and the Times reports that the Georgian attack resulted in civilian casualties. I certainly never thought the Georgians carried out precise bombardments and I don't think they're capable of it. Neither are the Russkies.

I also believe the Georgians radically upped the confrontation--in effect, they attacked first. But they did so because they knew about the column of Russian tanks coming in through the Roki Tunnel that connects North and South Ossetia, that is, connects Russian territory to the breakaway region. A Russian invasion was in progress. The Times report addresses this glancingly toward the end:

"Neither Georgia nor its Western allies have as yet provided conclusive evidence that Russia was invading the country or that the situation for Georgians in the Ossetian zone was so dire that a large-scale military attack was necessary, as Mr. Saakashvili insists.

"Georgia has released telephone intercepts indicating that a Russian armored column apparently entered the enclave from Russia early on the Aug. 7, which would be a violation of the peacekeeping rules. Georgia said the column marked the beginning of an invasion. But the intercepts did not show the column's size, composition or mission, and there has not been evidence that it was engaged with Georgian forces until many hours after the Georgian bombardment; Russia insists it was simply a routine logistics train or troop rotation."

This is disingenuous. It makes no sense that the Russkies had some 200 fully armed, fueled tanks halfway into Georgia within two days, as a spontaneous and unplanned response to aggression. They're not that efficient. Both sides knew what was going down.

There is an argument that in shooting first, Saakashvili lost the moral propaganda advantage. It instantly looked like he had provoked a reaction. The other option was to let the Russkies invade and complain later from atop the moral high ground. He decided to fight first. He knew he wasn't going to win. The Russians owned the air. But worse, he knew that his allies were going to do nothing either way.

My bet is, he contacted the White House and they told him, as they'd done consistently up to then, that he was on his own. Think of the timing--Bush is in Beijing, the U.S. has an election coming, Saakashvili is abroad, everyone is on vacation--including all his allies. So the Georgians decide to attack South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali? No, I don't think so.

There is an additional misconception that underlies much of the programmatic left/right, Democrat/GOP, détente/Cold War binary thinking on the matter: that the Bush administration encouraged Saakashvili to confront the Russians or at least bolstered his sense of allied support.

This is manifestly untrue. Tbilisi insiders told me that Georgia had been asking the Bushies for anti-aircraft missiles for some years. The Bushies consistently refused. Georgia had managed to acquire some from Israel, but the supply abruptly stopped in early summer this year--nobody knows why but it's likely that the Russians had a conclusive word with Israel. The Russkies regularly overflew Georgian territory as constant provocation, dropping a stray bomb here and a missile there, by mistake, in open countryside.

Furthermore, the Bush administration had no practical measures in train for interceding Moscow's invasion. It wasn't until the scathing Wall Street Journal editorial of Aug. 12--"so far the administration has been missing in action"--that Washington was stung into taking practical measures. The White House even issued a press release specifically citing the Journal's editorial claims as inaccurate. But it followed the Journal's menu of suggestions precisely: send in Condi, supplies, boatlift and the like.

We probably have the Journal's editorial board to thank for Condi's hurried departure to Tbilisi at a time when Russian warplanes were still flying overhead--and with her arrival, perhaps even the halting of Russkie tanks short of Tbilisi.

The Georgians were always way down on the list of priorities for a fumble-prone White House. Saakashvili was never Washington's irreplaceable ally, at any rate never enough to keep the Russians at bay. Putin knew it. It may be a brave new post-Bush world, but he still knows it.

Melik Kaylan, a writer based in New York, writes a weekly column for Forbes.com. His story "Georgia In The Time of Misha" is featured in The Best American Travel Writing 2008.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 11 2008, 22:07:52     :

http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/11/10/georgia-russia-obama-oped-cx_mk_1111kaylan.html
Ãðóçèÿ, Ðîññèÿ è íîâàÿ àäìèíèñòðàöèÿ
Ìåëèê Êàéëàí

Òåïåðü, ïîñëå âûáîðîâ, ìîæíî ïîïðîñèòü ìèð äàòü Îáàìå íåáîëüøóþ ïåðåäûøêó è íå òðåáîâàòü îò íåãî âñåãî ñðàçó, ïèøåò êîëóìíèñò The Forbes Ìåëèê Êàéëàí. Ñàìèì æå àìåðèêàíöàì ïîêà ñëåäóåò çàíÿòüñÿ "êàëèáðîâêîé" ñâîåãî âèäåíèÿ ìèðà è âîñïðèÿòèÿ òåõ èëè èíûõ êðèçèñîâ.

Êàéëàí îáðàùàåò âíèìàíèå íà íîâûé âñïëåñê âíèìàíèÿ çàïàäíîé ïðåññû ê Ãðóçèè. Òàê, 6 íîÿáðÿ â The New York Times ïîÿâèëàñü áîëüøàÿ ðàçîáëà÷èòåëüíàÿ ñòàòüÿ, ãäå ñîîáùàëîñü ñî ññûëêîé íà ÎÁÑÅ, ÷òî à) Òáèëèñè ïåðâûì íà÷àë áîåâûå äåéñòâèÿ, á) ãðóçèíñêàÿ àðìèÿ âåëà áåñïîðÿäî÷íûé îãîíü ïî Öõèíâàëè, ÷òî ïðèâåëî ê æåðòâàì ñðåäè ìèðíîãî íàñåëåíèÿ. Óæå 8 íîÿáðÿ íà âåá-ñàéòå BBC ïîÿâèëîñü ñîîáùåíèå î òîì, ÷òî ÎÁÑÅ íå ñìîãëà ïðåäóïðåäèòü î íàäâèãàâøåìñÿ êîíôëèêòå. Ñî ññûëêîé íà âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííîå ëèöî â îðãàíèçàöèè, íûíå â îòñòàâêå, îòìå÷àëîñü, ÷òî ðóêîâîäñòâî ÎÁÑÅ íå ïðèñëóøèâàëîñü ê ñîîáùåíèÿì î âîåííîé àêòèâíîñòè ãðóçèíñêîé ñòîðîíû, "ïîêà Ãðóçèÿ íå âòîðãëàñü â þæíîîñåòèíñêèé ðåãèîí".

×èòàòü ìåæäó ñòðîê, çàìå÷àåò àâòîð ñòàòüè, òóò íåñëîæíî – Ãðóçèÿ-äå íàïàëà ïåðâîé. Âûõîäèò, ðàç Ãðóçèÿ íàïàëà ïåðâîé, òî Ðîññèÿ áûëà ñïðîâîöèðîâàíà è íå ìîãëà íå îòâåòèòü. Òîãäà ïðåçèäåíò Ãðóçèè – "ìàíüÿê ñ ïóøêîé", àìåðèêàíöàì íàäî ñâîðà÷èâàòü êîíôðîíòàöèþ ñ Ðîññèåé, è íåò äàæå ðå÷è î õîëîäíîé âîéíå èëè ïîïûòêå "èñïûòàòü" Îáàìó. Íîâûé ïðåçèäåíò ìîæåò ïðîñòî íàæàòü êíîïêó "îáíîâèòü", è ïåðåä íèì ïîÿâèòñÿ íîâûé ìèð – ÷èñòûé, êàê tabula rasa.

Âïðî÷åì, íà çàðå àìåðèêàíñêîãî ãîñóäàðñòâà òàêèå ðàññóæäåíèÿ íàçâàëè áû "îñíîâàííûìè íà âåðå", à íå íà "äåéñòâèòåëüíîñòè". The New York Times è BBC ìîãóò ìå÷òàòü, ñêîëüêî èì óãîäíî, ïðîäîëæàåò Êàéëàí, îäíàêî åäâà ëè Îáàìà, êàê ðàññóäèòåëüíûé ïîëèòèê, íà ýòî "êóïèòñÿ". Áàéäåí òî÷íî íå êóïèòñÿ.

 ëþáîì ñëó÷àå, ó íèõ íå áóäåò âûáîðà, âåäü ïðåìüåð Ïóòèí è ïðåçèäåíò Ìåäâåäåâ èçáðàëè æåñòêèé èìïåðñêèé êóðñ. Ñàì Ìåäâåäåâ, ïîÿñíÿåò êîëóìíèñò The Forbes, âïîëíå ÿñíî îáîçíà÷èë ñâîþ ïîçèöèþ, íå óïîìÿíóâ íè ðàçó â åæåãîäíîì ïîñëàíèè ïàðëàìåíòó ðåçóëüòàòû âûáîðîâ â ÑØÀ. Ýòî çíà÷èò: Ðîññèÿ äåéñòâóåò ñàìîñòîÿòåëüíî, áåç îãëÿäêè íà îñòàëüíûå ñòðàíû.

Æóðíàëèñò èçäàíèÿ ïîä÷åðêèâàåò, ÷òî îí ñ÷èòàåò ïðåçèäåíòà Ãðóçèè ñâîèì áëèçêèì äðóãîì è, êàê è ïðåæäå, ãîòîâ çàùèùàòü äåéñòâèÿ Ãðóçèè. Íèæå îí ïðèâîäèò ñîáñòâåííîå ìíåíèå î òîì, ÷òî ïðîèçîøëî 7-8 àâãóñòà.

Íå îñïàðèâàÿ ñîîáùåíèÿ ÎÁÑÅ è The New York Times î òîì, ÷òî íàïàäåíèå ãðóçèíñêîé ñòîðîíû ïðèâåëî ê æåðòâàì ñðåäè ìèðíîãî íàñåëåíèÿ, àâòîð çàìå÷àåò, ÷òî íè ðóññêèå, íè ãðóçèíñêèå ñèëû íå ñïîñîáíû îñóùåñòâëÿòü òî÷å÷íûå îáñòðåëû.

Êàéëàí ñîãëàøàåòñÿ ñ òåì, ÷òî, ïî ñóòè, Ãðóçèÿ ïåðâîé íàíåñëà óäàð, ÷åì ðåçêî îáîñòðèëà êîíôðîíòàöèþ. Òåì íå ìåíåå, ãðóçèíû ñäåëàëè ýòî, ïî åãî ìíåíèþ, óæå çíàÿ î ïðîõîæäåíèè êîëîííû ðîññèéñêèõ òàíêîâ ÷åðåç Ðîêñêèé òîííåëü, ñîåäèíÿþùèé Ñåâåðíóþ è Þæíóþ Îñåòèþ.

Ïî ìíåíèþ àâòîðà ñòàòüè, íåâîçìîæíî ïðåäñòàâèòü, ÷òî ðóññêèå ïîäãîòîâèëè, çàïðàâèëè è îáåñïå÷èëè áîåïðèïàñàìè êîëîííó èç 200 òàíêîâ ìåíåå ÷åì çà äâà äíÿ, ÷òî ýòî áûë âíåçàïíûé, íåçàïëàíèðîâàííûé îòâåò íà àãðåññèþ. Ðîññèéñêàÿ àðìèÿ, ïèøåò Êàéëàí, íå íàñòîëüêî ýôôåêòèâíà. Çíà÷èò, îáå ñòîðîíû ïðåêðàñíî çíàëè, ÷òî ïðîèñõîäèò.

Ñ÷èòàåòñÿ, ïðîäîëæàåò îí, ÷òî, îòêðûâ îãîíü ïåðâûì, Ñààêàøâèëè êàê áû ñïðîâîöèðîâàë êîíôëèêò è óòðàòèë ìîðàëüíîå ïðåèìóùåñòâî. Íî àëüòåðíàòèâíûì âàðèàíòîì áûëî áû äàòü ðóññêèì âòîðãíóòüñÿ è çàòåì íà÷àòü æàëîâàòü, ñòîÿ íà áåçóïðå÷íûõ ïîçèöèÿõ. Îí æå ðåøèë ïåðâûì äàòü áîé. Îí çíàë, ÷òî íè÷åãî íå ñìîæåò ñäåëàòü, ïîñêîëüêó íåáî êîíòðîëèðîâàëîñü ðîññèéñêîé àâèàöèåé. Áîëåå òîãî, îí çíàë, ÷òî ñîþçíèêè åìó íå ïîìîãóò.

Àâòîð ñòàòüè óâåðåí, ÷òî Ñààêàøâèëè ñâÿçàëñÿ ñ Áåëûì äîìîì, è åìó ñêàçàëè, ÷òî îí ñàì ïî ñåáå. Çäåñü íåâåðíî ïðèìåíÿòü áèíàðíóþ ëîãèêó õîëîäíîé âîéíû: ìîë, àäìèíèñòðàöèÿ Áóøà ïîäòàëêèâàëà Òáèëèñè íà÷àòü ýòó âîéíó. Ñêîðåå, íàïðîòèâ: â òå÷åíèå ìíîãèõ ëåò Âàøèíãòîí îòâå÷àë îòêàçîì íà ïðîñüáû Ãðóçèè ïðîäàòü ñèñòåìû ÏÂÎ.  êîíå÷íîì ñ÷åòå, Òáèëèñè óäàëîñü ïðèîáðåñòè èõ ó Èçðàèëÿ, íî ïîñòàâêè íåîæèäàííî ïðåêðàòèëèñü â íà÷àëå ëåòà ýòîãî ãîäà – ñ÷èòàåòñÿ, ÷òî ïî ïðîñüáå Ðîññèè.

Êðîìå ýòîãî, àäìèíèñòðàöèÿ Áóøà â ïåðâûå äíè êîíôëèêòà íå äåëàëà ïðàêòè÷åñêè íè÷åãî, ÷òîáû îñòàíîâèòü Ìîñêâó, ïèøåò Êàéëàí. Ëèøü ïîñëå ðåäàêòîðñêîé ñòàòüè â The Wall Street Journal ("Ïîêà ÷òî àäìèíèñòðàöèÿ ïðîïàëà áåç âåñòè") Âàøèíãòîí íà÷àë ïðåäïðèíèìàòü êàêèå-òî øàãè. Êàê èðîíèçèðóåò Êàéëàí, íàâåðíîå, íàäî ïîáëàãîäàðèòü WSJ çà ïîñïåøíûé âèçèò Êîíäîëèçû Ðàéñ â Òáèëèñè – âåðîÿòíî, áëàãîäàðÿ åìó ðîññèéñêèå òàíêè òàê è íå äîøëè äî ãðóçèíñêîé ñòîëèöû.

Ãðóçèÿ âñåãäà áûëà â êîíöå ñïèñêà ïðèîðèòåòîâ Áåëîãî äîìà, çàêëþ÷àåò àâòîð. Ñààêàøâèëè íå áûë "íåçàìåíèìûì ñîþçíèêîì" íàñòîëüêî, ÷òîáû äåðæàòü ðóññêèõ íà ïî÷òèòåëüíîì ðàññòîÿíèè. È Ïóòèí çíàë ýòî. Ïóñòü òåïåðü íàñòàë äèâíûé íîâûé ìèð áåç Áóøà – Ïóòèí ïî-ïðåæíåìó ýòî çíàåò.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 11 2008, 22:21:11     :

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/07/world/europe/07georgia.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Georgia Claims on Russia War Called Into Question
Vano Shlamov/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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By C. J. CHIVERS and ELLEN BARRY
Published: November 6, 2008

TBILISI, Georgia — Newly available accounts by independent military observers of the beginning of the war between Georgia and Russia this summer call into question the longstanding Georgian assertion that it was acting defensively against separatist and Russian aggression.

Georgia moved forces toward the border of the breakaway region of South Ossetia on Aug. 7, at the start of what it called a defensive war with separatists there and with Russian forces.
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Instead, the accounts suggest that Georgia’s inexperienced military attacked the isolated separatist capital of Tskhinvali on Aug. 7 with indiscriminate artillery and rocket fire, exposing civilians, Russian peacekeepers and unarmed monitors to harm.

The accounts are neither fully conclusive nor broad enough to settle the many lingering disputes over blame in a war that hardened relations between the Kremlin and the West. But they raise questions about the accuracy and honesty of Georgia’s insistence that its shelling of Tskhinvali, the capital of the breakaway region of South Ossetia, was a precise operation. Georgia has variously defended the shelling as necessary to stop heavy Ossetian shelling of Georgian villages, bring order to the region or counter a Russian invasion.

President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia has characterized the attack as a precise and defensive act. But according to observations of the monitors, documented Aug. 7 and Aug. 8, Georgian artillery rounds and rockets were falling throughout the city at intervals of 15 to 20 seconds between explosions, and within the first hour of the bombardment at least 48 rounds landed in a civilian area. The monitors have also said they were unable to verify that ethnic Georgian villages were under heavy bombardment that evening, calling to question one of Mr. Saakashvili’s main justifications for the attack.

Senior Georgian officials contest these accounts, and have urged Western governments to discount them. “That information, I don’t know what it is and how it is confirmed,” said Giga Bokeria, Georgia’s deputy foreign minister. “There is such an amount of evidence of continuous attacks on Georgian-controlled villages and so much evidence of Russian military buildup, it doesn’t change in any case the general picture of events.”

He added: “Who was counting those explosions? It sounds a bit peculiar.”

The Kremlin has embraced the monitors’ observations, which, according to a written statement from Grigory Karasin, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, reflect “the actual course of events prior to Georgia’s aggression.” He added that the accounts “refute” allegations by Tbilisi of bombardments that he called mythical.

The monitors were members of an international team working under the mandate of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or O.S.C.E. A multilateral organization with 56 member states, the group has monitored the conflict since a previous cease-fire agreement in the 1990s.

The observations by the monitors, including a Finnish major, a Belarussian airborne captain and a Polish civilian, have been the subject of two confidential briefings to diplomats in Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, one in August and the other in October. Summaries were shared with The New York Times by people in attendance at both.

Details were then confirmed by three Western diplomats and a Russian, and were not disputed by the O.S.C.E.’s mission in Tbilisi, which was provided with a written summary of the observations.

Mr. Saakashvili, who has compared Russia’s incursion into Georgia to the Nazi annexations in Europe in 1938 and the Soviet suppression of Prague in 1968, faces domestic unease with his leadership and skepticism about his judgment from Western governments.

The brief war was a disaster for Georgia. The attack backfired. Georgia’s army was humiliated as Russian forces overwhelmed its brigades, seized and looted their bases, captured their equipment and roamed the country’s roads at will. Villages that Georgia vowed to save were ransacked and cleared of their populations by irregular Ossetian, Chechen and Cossack forces, and several were burned to the ground.

Massing of Weapons

According to the monitors, an O.S.C.E. patrol at 3 p.m. on Aug. 7 saw large numbers of Georgian artillery and grad rocket launchers massing on roads north of Gori, just south of the enclave.

At 6:10 p.m., the monitors were told by Russian peacekeepers of suspected Georgian artillery fire on Khetagurovo, an Ossetian village; this report was not independently confirmed, and Georgia declared a unilateral cease-fire shortly thereafter, about 7 p.m.


During a news broadcast that began at 11 p.m., Georgia announced that Georgian villages were being shelled, and declared an operation “to restore constitutional order” in South Ossetia. The bombardment of Tskhinvali started soon after the broadcast.

According to the monitors, however, no shelling of Georgian villages could be heard in the hours before the Georgian bombardment. At least two of the four villages that Georgia has since said were under fire were near the observers’ office in Tskhinvali, and the monitors there likely would have heard artillery fire nearby.

Moreover, the observers made a record of the rounds exploding after Georgia’s bombardment began at 11:35 p.m. At 11:45 p.m., rounds were exploding at intervals of 15 to 20 seconds between impacts, they noted.

At 12:15 a.m. on Aug. 8, Gen. Maj. Marat M. Kulakhmetov, commander of Russian peacekeepers in the enclave, reported to the monitors that his unit had casualties, indicating that Russian soldiers had come under fire.

By 12:35 a.m. the observers had recorded at least 100 heavy rounds exploding across Tskhinvali, including 48 close to the observers’ office, which is in a civilian area and was damaged.

Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, a spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, said that by morning on Aug. 8 two Russian soldiers had been killed and five wounded. Two senior Western military officers stationed in Georgia, speaking on condition of anonymity because they work with Georgia’s military, said that whatever Russia’s behavior in or intentions for the enclave, once Georgia’s artillery or rockets struck Russian positions, conflict with Russia was all but inevitable. This clear risk, they said, made Georgia’s attack dangerous and unwise.

Senior Georgia officials, a group with scant military experience and personal loyalties to Mr. Saakashvili, have said that much of the damage to Tskhinvali was caused in combat between its soldiers and separatists, or by Russian airstrikes and bombardments in its counterattack the next day. As for its broader shelling of the city, Georgia has told Western diplomats that Ossetians hid weapons in civilian buildings, making them legitimate targets.

“The Georgians have been quite clear that they were shelling targets — the mayor’s office, police headquarters — that had been used for military purposes,” said Matthew J. Bryza, a deputy assistant secretary of state and one of Mr. Saakashvili’s vocal supporters in Washington.

Those claims have not been independently verified, and Georgia’s account was disputed by Ryan Grist, a former British Army captain who was the senior O.S.C.E. representative in Georgia when the war broke out. Mr. Grist said that he was in constant contact that night with all sides, with the office in Tskhinvali and with Wing Commander Stephen Young, the retired British military officer who leads the monitoring team.

“It was clear to me that the attack was completely indiscriminate and disproportionate to any, if indeed there had been any, provocation,” Mr. Grist said. “The attack was clearly, in my mind, an indiscriminate attack on the town, as a town.”

Mr. Grist has served as a military officer or diplomat in Northern Ireland, Cyprus, Kosovo and Yugoslavia. In August, after the Georgian foreign minister, Eka Tkeshelashvili, who has no military experience, assured diplomats in Tbilisi that the attack was measured and discriminate, Mr. Grist gave a briefing to diplomats from the European Union that drew from the monitors’ observations and included his assessments. He then soon resigned under unclear circumstances.

A second briefing was led by Commander Young in October for military attachés visiting Georgia. At the meeting, according to a person in attendance, Commander Young stood by the monitors’ assessment that Georgian villages had not been extensively shelled on the evening or night of Aug. 7. “If there had been heavy shelling in areas that Georgia claimed were shelled, then our people would have heard it, and they didn’t,” Commander Young said, according to the person who attended. “They heard only occasional small-arms fire.”

The O.S.C.E turned down a request by The Times to interview Commander Young and the monitors, saying they worked in sensitive jobs and would not be publicly engaged in this disagreement.

Disentangling the Russian and Georgian accounts has been complicated. The violence along the enclave’s boundaries that had occurred in recent summers was more widespread this year, and in the days before Aug. 7 there had been shelling of Georgian villages. Tensions had been soaring.

Each side has fresh lists of grievances about the other, which they insist are decisive. But both sides also have a record of misstatement and exaggeration, which includes circulating casualty estimates that have not withstood independent examination. With the international standing of both Russia and Georgia damaged, the public relations battle has been intensive.

Russian military units have been implicated in destruction of civilian property and accused by Georgia of participating with Ossetian militias in a campaign of ethnic cleansing. Russia and South Ossetia have accused Georgia of attacking Ossetian civilians.

But a critical and as yet unanswered question has been what changed for Georgia between 7 p.m. on Aug 7, when Mr. Saakashvili declared a cease-fire, and 11:30 p.m., when he says he ordered the attack. The Russian and Ossetian governments have said the cease-fire was a ruse used to position rockets and artillery for the assault.

That view is widely held by Ossetians. Civilians repeatedly reported resting at home after the cease-fire broadcast by Mr. Saakashvili. Emeliya B. Dzhoyeva, 68, was home with her husband, Felix, 70, when the bombardment began. He lost his left arm below the elbow and suffered burns to his right arm and torso. “Saakashvili told us that nothing would happen,” she said. “So we all just went to bed.”

Neither Georgia nor its Western allies have as yet provided conclusive evidence that Russia was invading the country or that the situation for Georgians in the Ossetian zone was so dire that a large-scale military attack was necessary, as Mr. Saakashvili insists.

Georgia has released telephone intercepts indicating that a Russian armored column apparently entered the enclave from Russia early on the Aug. 7, which would be a violation of the peacekeeping rules. Georgia said the column marked the beginning of an invasion. But the intercepts did not show the column’s size, composition or mission, and there has not been evidence that it was engaged with Georgian forces until many hours after the Georgian bombardment; Russia insists it was simply a routine logistics train or troop rotation.

Unclear Accounts of Shelling

Interviews by The Times have found a mixed picture on the question of whether Georgian villages were shelled after Mr. Saakashvili declared the cease-fire. Residents of the village of Zemo Nigozi, one of the villages that Georgia has said was under heavy fire, said they were shelled from 6 p.m. on, supporting Georgian statements.

In two other villages, interviews did not support Georgian claims. In Avnevi, several residents said the shelling stopped before the cease-fire and did not resume until roughly the same time as the Georgian bombardment. In Tamarasheni, some residents said they were lightly shelled on the evening of Aug. 7, but felt safe enough not to retreat to their basements. Others said they were not shelled until Aug 9.

With a paucity of reliable and unbiased information available, the O.S.C.E. observations put the United States in a potentially difficult position. The United States, Mr. Saakashvili’s principal source of international support, has for years accepted the organization’s conclusions and praised its professionalism. Mr. Bryza refrained from passing judgment on the conflicting accounts.

“I wasn’t there,” he said, referring to the battle. “We didn’t have people there. But the O.S.C.E. really has been our benchmark on many things over the years.”

The O.S.C.E. itself, while refusing to discuss its internal findings, stood by the accuracy of its work but urged caution in interpreting it too broadly. “We are confident that all O.S.C.E. observations are expert, accurate and unbiased,” Martha Freeman, a spokeswoman, said in an e-mail message. “However, monitoring activities in certain areas at certain times cannot be taken in isolation to provide a comprehensive account.”
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 11 2008, 22:32:45     :

http://www.inopressa.ru/boston/2008/11/11/11:29:47/georgia
Áåçðàññóäíàÿ Ãðóçèÿ
Ðåäàêöèÿ

Ñåãîäíÿøíÿÿ ðåäàêöèîííàÿ ñòàòüÿ â The Boston Globe ïîñâÿùåíà àíàëèçó ïîñëåäñòâèé âñïëûâøèõ íåäàâíî â àíãëîÿçû÷íîé ïå÷àòè ñâèäåòåëüñòâ äâóõ ñîòðóäíèêîâ ìèññèè ÎÁÑÅ â Ãðóçèè, êîòîðûå óòâåðæäàþò, ÷òî èìåííî êàâêàçñêàÿ ðåñïóáëèêà, à íå Ðîññèÿ, íà÷àëà àâãóñòîâñêóþ âîéíó.

"Çíàòü, êàêàÿ èç ñòîðîí íà÷àëà â àâãóñòå ðîññèéñêî-ãðóçèíñêóþ âîéíó, âàæíî. Åñëè ïåðâîñòåïåííàÿ âèíà ëåæèò íà Ðîññèè, êàê óòâåðæäàåò ïðåçèäåíò Ãðóçèè Ìèõàèë Ñààêàøâèëè, ó íîâîé àäìèíèñòðàöèè âî ãëàâå ñ Îáàìîé áóäåò îãðàíè÷åííàÿ ñâîáîäà ìàíåâðà â äåëå âîññòàíîâëåíèÿ îòíîøåíèé ñ Ðîññèåé. Åñëè æå âûÿñíèòñÿ, ÷òî áîëüøå âèíîâàòà Ãðóçèÿ, íîâîìó ïðåçèäåíòó Îáàìå ïðèäåòñÿ äîâåñòè äî ïîíèìàíèÿ Ñààêàøâèëè, ÷òî íàäåæíûå ñîþçíèêè íå ïðîÿâëÿþò íåïîâèíîâåíèÿ âîëå Âàøèíãòîíà è ñ áåçðàññóäñòâîì íå âîâëåêàþò Àìåðèêó â íåíóæíóþ êîíôðîíòàöèþ ñ Ðîññèåé", – ïèøåò ðåäàêöèÿ The Boston Globe.

"Îñíîâàíèé ñîìíåâàòüñÿ â êîìïåòåíòíîñòè èëè ÷åñòíîñòè íàáëþäàòåëåé ÎÁÑÅ íåò. Íåèçáåæíûé âûâîä ñîñòîèò â òîì, ÷òî Ñààêàøâèëè ñàì íà÷àë âîéíó è ñîëãàë íà ýòîò ñ÷åò. Ïóñòü Êðåìëü ñî ñâîåé ñòîðîíû íà ïðîòÿæåíèè êàêîãî-òî âðåìåíè ïðîâîöèðîâàë Ãðóçèþ è åãî ðåàêöèÿ íà íàïàäåíèÿ ñî ñòîðîíû Ãðóçèè áûëà óìûøëåííî æåñòêîé, íî ýòî íå îïðàâäûâàåò Ñààêàøâèëè, êîòîðûé ïîçâîëèë ñåáÿ ñïðîâîöèðîâàòü", – âûíîñèò âåðäèêò èçäàíèå.

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/editorials/articles/2008/11/11/reckless_georgia/
Reckless Georgia
November 11, 2008

IT IS IMPORTANT to know which side initiated the war in August between Russia and Georgia. If primary blame falls on Russia, as Georgia's President Mikheil Saakashvili claims, a new Obama administration will have limited latitude in rebuilding relations with Russia. If it turns out that Georgia is mostly to blame, the new President Obama will have to make sure Saakashvili understands that a reliable ally does not defy the will of Washington and recklessly implicate America in an unnecessary confrontation with Russia.

Which is why Obama should take note of emerging accounts about the beginning of the war from seasoned monitors sponsored by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Those monitors, who were on the ground in the breakaway region of South Ossetia when hostilities commenced the night of Aug. 7, reported seeing Georgian artillery and rocket launchers assembling just outside South Ossetia at 3 p.m. that day, well before any Russian convoy had crossed into the enclave.

They also observed unprovoked shelling of South Ossetia's capital, Tskhinvali, that night. The shells were falling on civilians huddled in their homes. And the monitors heard nothing that would confirm Saakashvili's claim that Georgian artillery attacks on Tskhinvali were in response to the shelling of ethnic Georgian villages.

There is no reason to doubt the competence or honesty of the OSCE monitors. The inescapable conclusion is that Saakashvili started the war and lied about it. The Kremlin may have done its part to provoke Georgia over a period of time - and its reaction to the Georgian attacks was deliberately harsh - but that is no excuse for Saakashvili allowing himself to be provoked.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 12 2008, 10:44:18     :

http://www.inopressa.ru/independent/2008/11/12/12:10:12/georgia
Ïî÷åìó Çàïàä ïðîèãíîðèðîâàë ïðàâäó î âîéíå â Ãðóçèè
Ìýðè Äåæåâñêè

Ïî÷åìó Çàïàä ïðîèãíîðèðîâàë ïðàâäó î âîéíå â Ãðóçèè? – çàäàåòñÿ âîïðîñîì îáîçðåâàòåëü The Independent Ìýðè Äåæåâñêè.

Ïî åå ìíåíèþ, Ãîñäåïàðòàìåíò ÑØÀ è áðèòàíñêèé Ôîðèí-îôôèñ áëàãîäàðÿò áîãà çà ôèíàíñîâûé êðèçèñ, îòâëåêøèé ïðåññó îò äðóãîãî ñêàíäàëà – ñêàíäàëà âîêðóã îòíîøåíèé ýòèõ ñòðàí ñ Ðîññèåé è ïðàâäû î ðîññèéñêî-ãðóçèíñêîé âîéíå.

"Çà ïîñëåäíèå äâå íåäåëè â àìåðèêàíñêèõ è áðèòàíñêèõ ÑÌÈ ïîÿâèëîñü ìíîãî ìàòåðèàëîâ, ãäå îñïàðèâàåòñÿ öåëûé ðÿä ðàñõîæèõ ïðåäñòàâëåíèé îá ýòîé âîéíå. Æóðíàëèñòû BBC, The New York Times è êàíàäñêîãî æóðíàëà Embassy çíàêîìèëèñü ñ ôàêòàìè, îòïðàâèâøèñü â Þæíóþ Îñåòèþ", – ïèøåò Äåæåâñêè, ïîä÷åðêèâàÿ, ÷òî ïîä ôàêòàìè ïîäðàçóìåâàþòñÿ íå âåðñèè ãðóçèíñêîé ïèàð-ìàøèíû èëè ïðåññ-ñëóæáû Êðåìëÿ, à ðåàëüíûé îïûò î÷åâèäöåâ, â òîì ÷èñëå áåçîðóæíûõ íàáëþäàòåëåé ÎÁÑÅ.

Êàê ïèøåò îáîçðåâàòåëü, ñîîáùåíèÿ æóðíàëèñòîâ ñîâïàäàþò â òîì, ÷òî Ãðóçèÿ ïîäâåðãëà Öõèíâàëè ìàññèðîâàííîé àòàêå, îáñòðåëèâàÿ îáúåêòû áåç ðàçáîðà, â òîì ÷èñëå áîëüíèöó. Ïî ìíåíèþ Äåæåâñêè, ýòè ìàòåðèàëû ïîäòâåðæäàþò, ÷òî ðîññèéñêèå âîéñêà âîøëè â Ãðóçèþ êàê òàêîâóþ – òî åñòü âòîðãëèñü íà òåððèòîðèþ ñóâåðåííîãî ãîñóäàðñòâà – òîëüêî ñïóñòÿ äâà äíÿ.

Ìåæäó òåì, îòìå÷àåò Äåæåâñêè, îáùàÿ ðàñïëûâ÷àòîñòü îôèöèàëüíûõ âåðñèé ÑØÀ è Âåëèêîáðèòàíèè ñîçäàëà âïå÷àòëåíèå, ÷òî Ðîññèÿ ÿâëÿåòñÿ âèíîâíèêîì êîíôëèêòà, à Ãðóçèÿ – õðàáðîé ìàëåíüêîé äåìîêðàòèåé, êîòîðóþ îãðîìíàÿ íåõîðîøàÿ Ðîññèÿ çàõîòåëà ðàçäàâèòü. "Ìàëî òîãî, ÷òî ýòà âåðñèÿ ÷óòü ëè íå ìãíîâåííî ïîëó÷èëà ïðèçíàíèå – Ðîññèè áûëî ïî÷òè íåâîçìîæíî åå îñïîðèòü ââèäó åå ñîîòâåòñòâèÿ âñåì óæå ñóùåñòâóþùèì íåãàòèâíûì ñòåðåîòèïàì", – ïèøåò àâòîð.

Íî òåïåðü âûÿñíèëîñü, ÷òî ÑØÀ è Âåëèêîáðèòàíèÿ íå âïðàâå ññûëàòüñÿ íà ñâîå íåâåäåíèå îá îáñòîÿòåëüñòâàõ íà÷àëà âîéíû – íà ñàìîé ðàííåé ñòàäèè èì ïîñòóïàëà èíôîðìàöèÿ îò íàáëþäàòåëåé ÎÁÑÅ, â òîì ÷èñëå äâóõ îïûòíåéøèõ îòñòàâíûõ îôèöåðîâ áðèòàíñêîé àðìèè, ñîîáùàåò Äåæåâñêè.

Àâòîð ïðåäïîëàãàåò, ÷òî çà âûñòóïëåíèÿìè áðèòàíñêèõ ïîëèòèêîâ â ïîääåðæêó Ãðóçèè è Óêðàèíû ñòîÿëà ñêîðåå èäåîëîãè÷åñêàÿ ñëåïîòà, ÷åì íåâåäåíèå. "Âîçìîæíî, îíè ïðåäïî÷ëè íå ïðèçíàâàòü íåíàäåæíîñòü ñâîåãî ãðóçèíñêîãî ïðîòåæå, îïàñàÿñü äèñêðåäèòèðîâàòü âñþ ñâîþ çàòåþ ïî ðàñïðîñòðàíåíèþ äåìîêðàòèè è âåðáîâêå ñîþçíèêîâ â áûâøèõ ðåñïóáëèêàõ ÑÑÑÐ?" – çàäàåò îíà ðèòîðè÷åñêèé âîïðîñ.

Ñîñëàâøèñü íà òî, ÷òî Âåëèêîáðèòàíèÿ ïåðåñòàëà âîçðàæàòü ïðîòèâ ïåðåãîâîðîâ ìåæäó Ðîññèåé è ÅÑ î íîâîì ïàðòíåðñêîì ñîãëàøåíèè, Äåæåâñêè ïðåäïîëàãàåò, ÷òî î÷åðåäíîé ðàóíä âîð÷àíèÿ íà Ðîññèþ çàêîí÷èëñÿ. "Îäíàêî ÷óâñòâî îáèäû â Ìîñêâå ñîõðàíèòñÿ, ïîêà êòî-íèáóäü â Ëîíäîíå èëè Âàøèíãòîíå íå ïðèçíàåò, ÷òî ñîâåðøåííî íåâåðíî ïîíÿë ðîññèéñêî-ãðóçèíñêóþ âîéíó", – çàêëþ÷àåò àâòîð.

Ref
Mary Dejevsky: Why did the West ignore the truth about the war in Georgia?

Thank goodness, they might be thinking at the US State Department and the British Foreign Office, for the financial crisis. Were it not for the ever-blacker news about the Western world's economy, another scandal would be vying for the headlines – and one where the blame would be easier to apportion. It concerns our two countries' relations with Russia and the truth about this summer's Georgia-Russia war.

Over the past couple of weeks, a spate of reports has appeared in the American and British media, questioning many assumptions about that war, chief among them that Russia was the guilty party. Journalists from the BBC, The New York Times and Canada's Embassy magazine, among others, travelled to South Ossetia, the region at the centre of the conflict, in an effort to establish the facts.

Not the "facts" as told by the super-slick Georgian PR machine at the time, nor the "facts" as eventually dragged from the hyper-defensive and clod-hopping communicators of the Kremlin. But the facts as experienced on the ground by those who were there: civilians, the local military commander, and the small number of unarmed monitors stationed in the region by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

The journalists travelled to the region separately and by different routes. They spoke to different people. But their findings are consistent: Georgia launched an indiscriminate military assault on South Ossetia's main town, Tskhinvali. The hospital was among the buildings attacked; doctors were injured even as they operated.

The timing of the Georgian attack, as of the arrival of the first Russian reinforcements two days later, coincides for the most part with the original Russian version. It was only then that the Russians crossed into Georgia proper in the invasion of sovereign territory that has been universally decried. For the record, it should be added that Russia has now withdrawn from uncontested Georgian territory, in accordance with the agreement mediated by President Sarkozy.

Now you could argue – and the State Department and the Foreign Office have done pretty much from the start – that it really does not matter who started the war; there had long been provocations on both sides and the priority was bringing hostilities to an end. You could also argue – more plausibly – that while Russia might have had a case at the start, it put itself in the wrong by applying excessive force and then recognising South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent.

But surely it does matter, crucially, how this conflict began. It matters legally and morally. And it is bound, rightly so, to affect how we view the two countries concerned. Yet the general fuzziness of official US and British accounts left the impression that Russia was the guilty party, and Georgia a brave little democracy that big bad Russia wanted to snuff out. Not only did this version gain almost instantaneous acceptance, but it was almost impossible for Russia to contest, confirming as it did every existing negative stereotype.

What has now transpired, however, is that the US and Britain had no excuse for not knowing how the war began. They were briefed by the OSCE monitors at a very early stage, and those monitors included two highly experienced former British Army officers.

So why were British and US officials so cagey about acknowledging, or perhaps even believing, what had really happened? Why did the Conservative leader, David Cameron, rush to Tbilisi to support Georgia as the unquestioned victim? And why – except to trump Mr Cameron – did the Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, give a tub-thumping speech in Kiev shortly afterwards that perpetuated the impression (without actually using the words) that the war was all about Moscow's supposed ambition to reconstitute its empire?

Was it ignorance? Or was it rather ideological blindness? Did they choose not to acknowledge the unreliability of their Georgian protégé, lest it discredit their whole project for spreading democracy and recruiting allies among former Soviet republics? It is only now, three months on, that either Mr Miliband or US officials have brought themselves to describe Georgia's action as "reckless".

Actions, though, tell another story. Earlier this week, Britain quietly lifted its objections to the start of EU talks on a new partnership treaty with Russia – talks that it, almost alone, had held up in sympathy with Georgia. So the latest bout of official harrumphing against Russia would seem to be over. Ill-feeling in Moscow, though, will persist, until someone in London or Washington concedes how badly they got the Russia-Georgia war wrong.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 20 2008, 13:42:59     :

http://www.inopressa.ru/nytimes/2008/11/20/13:27:47/misha

Îáàìà, Ìèøà è ìåäâåäü

Íèêîëàñ Ä. Êðèñòîô

Ñåðäèòûé ðàíåíûé ìåäâåäü òåðçàåò ïðåêðàñíóþ ñòðàíó, êîòîðàÿ áîãîòâîðèò Àìåðèêó è êîòîðàÿ èñêîðåíèëà êîððóïöèþ, – òàê îïèñûâàåò îáîçðåâàòåëü The New York Times Íèêîëàñ Êðèñòîô ðàñõîæèå çàïàäíûå ïðåäñòàâëåíèÿ î ñîâðåìåííîé Ãðóçèè, ÷òîáû çàòåì èõ îïðîâåðãíóòü. "Ïîñëå òîãî êàê â àâãóñòå åå ïîêóñàë ìåäâåäü, Ãðóçèÿ æàæäåò ðàäè ñâîåé áåçîïàñíîñòè âñòóïèòü â ÍÀÒÎ, è â ïåðèîä ïðåçèäåíòñêîé êàìïàíèè Îáàìà è Ìàêêåéí, êîòîðûå âîîáùå-òî ìàëî â ÷åì ìåæäó ñîáîé ñîãëàøàëèñü, åäèíîãëàñíî îáåùàëè ïîñïîñîáñòâîâàòü ýòîìó", – ïèøåò àâòîð.

 äåéñòâèòåëüíîñòè, åñëè Çàïàä õî÷åò èçáåæàòü íîâîé õîëîäíîé âîéíû, Îáàìå íåîáõîäèìî âûðàáîòàòü íîâûé ïîäõîä ê Ðîññèè, à Àìåðèêå – îòáðîñèòü ñëåïóþ âëþáëåííîñòü â Ìèøó, êàê çîâóò Ñààêàøâèëè â íàðîäå, îòìå÷àåò îáîçðåâàòåëü.

Êðèñòîô äîêàçûâàåò, ÷òî Ãðóçèÿ íå âî âñåì ïîõîæà íà ñèÿþùèé ìàÿê äåìîêðàòèè. Îí öèòèðóåò ñëîâà òåëåæóðíàëèñòêè Ñîôî Ìîøèäçå: "Ïðåññå â ïðèíöèïå çàïðåùåíî ñîîáùàòü ëþäÿì ïðàâäó" – è îòìå÷àåò, ÷òî âñå íàöèîíàëüíûå òåëåêàíàëû ôàêòè÷åñêè êîíòðîëèðóþòñÿ ïðàâèòåëüñòâîì.

"Äî ñèõ ïîð íåÿñíî, êàê èìåííî íà÷àëàñü ðîññèéñêî-ãðóçèíñêàÿ âîéíà, íî âåðñèÿ Ìèøè î íåñïðîâîöèðîâàííîì ðîññèéñêîì âòîðæåíèè – î÷åâèäíàÿ ÷óøü", – ïèøåò Êðèñòîô.

Ïî ìíåíèþ îáîçðåâàòåëÿ, ñàìîå âåðîÿòíîå îáúÿñíåíèå ñîñòîèò â òîì, ÷òî Ìèøà, óñòàâøèé îò ïîñòîÿííûõ ðîññèéñêèõ ïðîâîêàöèé è îñìåëåâøèé áëàãîäàðÿ ïîääåðæêå Àìåðèêè, óâèäåë øàíñ âåðíóòü ñåáå òåððèòîðèè, îò êîòîðûõ Ðîññèÿ îòùèïûâàëà ïî êóñî÷êó.

Ìåæäó òåì ïîìîãàòü ãðóçèíñêîé àðìèè áåññìûñëåííî: îíà íèêîãäà íå ñòàíåò äîñòàòî÷íî ñèëüíà, ÷òîáû ñäåðæàòü Ðîññèþ, óòâåðæäàåò îáîçðåâàòåëü, ïðèçûâàÿ âçàìåí àêòèâèçèðîâàòü òîðãîâëþ ñ Ãðóçèåé è èíâåñòèöèè â åå ýêîíîìèêó, äàáû ñòðàíà ïîëó÷èëà âåñ â ìèðå.

"Ê ñâåäåíèþ ãîñïîäèíà Îáàìû: åñëè íàøè âîéñêà áóäóò â ðàìêàõ ÍÀÒÎ çàâèñåòü îò âîëè Ìèøè, ýòî ñòàíåò êîøìàðîì.  ëþáîì ñëó÷àå, åùå íåî÷åâèäíî, ÷òî Ãðóçèÿ îòâå÷àåò êðèòåðèÿì ÷ëåíñòâà â ÍÀÒÎ, òàê êàê îíà íå êîíòðîëèðóåò âñþ ñâîþ òåððèòîðèþ", – ïèøåò àâòîð.

Êðèñòîô îòìå÷àåò, ÷òî Ðîññèÿ âåäåò ñåáÿ áåçîòâåòñòâåííî – â ÷àñòíîñòè, îáåùàåò ðàçìåñòèòü ðàêåòû áëèç ïîëüñêîé ãðàíèöû, à ïîòîìó ó àäìèíèñòðàöèè Îáàìû áóäåò ñîáëàçí ïðîäîëæàòü ðàñøèðåíèå ÍÀÒÎ.

"Âìåñòî ýòîãî äàâàéòå ñîòðóäíè÷àòü ñ Ðîññèåé òî÷íî òàê æå, êàê ñ Êèòàåì, õîòÿ íàì è ñëåäóåò áåç îáèíÿêîâ îò÷èòûâàòü Ðîññèþ çà åå íåêóëüòóðíîå ïîâåäåíèå", – çàêëþ÷àåò àâòîð, ïîä÷åðêèâàÿ, ÷òî äðàçíèòü íåâîñïèòàííûõ ìåäâåäåé – ýòî íå àëüòåðíàòèâà òðåçâûì äèïëîìàòè÷åñêèì óñèëèÿì.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Loanka



: 06.04.2006
: 3745
: Paris

: , 20 2008, 15:08:29     :

:


Ñåðäèòûé ðàíåíûé ìåäâåäü òåðçàåò ïðåêðàñíóþ ñòðàíó, êîòîðàÿ áîãîòâîðèò Àìåðèêó è êîòîðàÿ èñêîðåíèëà êîððóïöèþ, – òàê îïèñûâàåò îáîçðåâàòåëü The New York Times Íèêîëàñ Êðèñòîô.


Laughing òóò ÿ ÷óòü íå ïîäàâèëàñü! ûûûûûû.... Laughing Laughing
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Ó÷åíüå — ñâåò, à íåó÷åíüå — ïðèÿòíûé ïîëóìðàê. (ñ) Æâàíåöêèé
Thais



: 10.03.2005
: 2238
: Kaliningrad-Petersburg-Paris

: , 20 2008, 15:49:51     :

Êëàññèêà. Êðàñàâèöà è ÷óäîâèùå. Cool
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Âîò òàê ýòî ïðîèñõîäèò. Âàì õî÷åòñÿ ñ êåì-òî ïîäðóæèòüñÿ. Ðàçãîâàðèâàòü âàì íåîõîòà, âñòðå÷àòüñÿ ëåíü, çâîíèòü íåêîãäà, òóñîâàòüñÿ íàäîåëî, óæèíàòü òÿæåëî, ïðèõîäèòü ñî ñâîåé äèåòîé - íåýòè÷íî, ñïàòü è ëåæàòü ñ âàìè â øèðîêîì ñìûñëå íîâûå äðóçüÿ îòêàçûâàþòñÿ, ìîë÷àòü ñ âàìè èì íå î ÷åì.  îáùåì, äðóæèòü íàäî áûëî ðàíüøå. (Ì. Æâàíåöêèé)
Zabava



: 09.03.2005
: 3059

: , 20 2008, 15:50:34     :

Äà, ÿ òîæå ÷èòàëà, ÷òî îíè åå èñêîðåíèëè. Íàâåðíîå, ðàññòðåëàìè
    e-mail
Loanka



: 06.04.2006
: 3745
: Paris

: , 24 2008, 12:17:31     :

http://www.vz.ru/politics/2008/11/24/231970.html

Ãëàâíàÿ îøèáêà Ñààêàøâèëè
Ñîöèîëîãè âûÿñíèëè, ÷òî ãðàæäàí Ãðóçèè íå óñòðàèâàåò â Ìèõàèëå Ñààêàøâèëè
24 íîÿáðÿ 2008, 13:09
Òåêñò: Äìèòðèé Àëåêñàíäðîâ,
Òáèëèñè



Ïåðå÷èñëÿÿ ãëàâíûå íåóäà÷è ïðàâèòåëüñòâà Ñààêàøâèëè çà ïÿòü ëåò ïðàâëåíèÿ, ðåñïîíäåíòû íàçûâàþò è äàâëåíèå íà áèçíåñ, è áåçðàáîòèöó, è îãðàíè÷åíèå ñâîáîäû ÑÌÈ, è ñìåðòü Çóðàáà Æâàíèè, è æåñòîêèé ðàçãîí îïïîçèöèîííîãî ìèòèíãà îñåíüþ ïðîøëîãî ãîäà. Îäíàêî ïåðâîå ìåñòî çàíÿë àâãóñòîâñêèé êîíôëèêò â Þæíîé Îñåòèè, ïîäêîñèâøèé ãðóçèíñêóþ ýêîíîìèêó è ëèøèâøèé îôèöèàëüíûé Òáèëèñè ëþáûõ øàíñîâ âîññòàíîâèòü êîíòðîëü íàä ÐÞÎ è Àáõàçèåé.

Ê ïÿòîé ãîäîâùèíå «ðåâîëþöèè ðîç», êîòîðóþ Ãðóçèÿ îòìåòèëà â âîñêðåñåíüå, àâòîðèòåòíûé òáèëèññêèé åæåíåäåëüíèê «Êâèðèñ ïàëèòðà» («Ïàëèòðà íåäåëè») ïðîâåë îïðîñ íà òåìó: â ÷åì ñàìàÿ áîëüøàÿ îøèáêà è ÷òî åñòü ñàìîå êðóïíîå ïîðàæåíèå «ðåâîëþöèîííûõ» âëàñòåé çà ïÿòèëåòíèé ïåðèîä.



«Àòàêà íà áèçíåñ è íà ïðàâî ÷àñòíîé ñîáñòâåííîñòè – âîò ñàìîå ïëîõîå èç òîãî, ÷òî ñäåëàëà ýòà âëàñòü, – âûñêàçûâàåò ìíåíèå ïîëèòîëîã Øàëâà Ïè÷õàäçå» «Âîéíà ñ Ðîññèåé» – òàêèì áûë îòâåò ãðàæäàí Ãðóçèè.  îïðîñå ãàçåòû ó÷àñòâîâàëî 522 ðåñïîíäåíòà. Ïî 8-áàëëüíîé øêàëå îöåíîê «âîéíà» ïîëó÷èëà 7 áàëëîâ.


Äåéñòâèòåëüíî, àâãóñòîâñêèé êîíôëèêò êàðäèíàëüíî èçìåíèë ñèòóàöèþ â ðåñïóáëèêå. Ðå÷ü èäåò è îá îáîñòðèâøåìñÿ ïîëèòè÷åñêîì êëèìàòå, è î íåçäîðîâîé ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé àòìîñôåðå. Êðîìå òîãî, ìíîãèå ïîëèòèêè è ïîëèòîëîãè îáðàùàþò âíèìàíèå íà òî, ÷òî â ãðàæäàí Ãðóçèè âñåëèëñÿ ïåññèìèçì. Ïîòåðÿíû òåððèòîðèè, ïîãèáëè ëþäè, ïîÿâèëèñü íîâûå áåæåíöû.


Ïî ñëîâàì ýêñ-ñïèêåðà ïàðëàìåíòà Íèíî Áóðäæàíàäçå, êîòîðàÿ ó÷ðåäèëà íàêàíóíå îïïîçèöèîííîå «Äåìîêðàòè÷åñêîå äâèæåíèå «Åäèíàÿ Ãðóçèÿ», âëàñòè íàâÿçûâàþò ñòðàíå «âèðòóàëüíûé ìèð»: êàê áóäòî Ãðóçèÿ âîéíó âûèãðàëà, è âñå ó íå¸ õîðîøî.


«Ó âëàñòåé íå õâàòèëî ìóæåñòâà ïðèçíàòü ïîðàæåíèå è äàæå èçâèíèòüñÿ», – ãîâîðèò Íèíî Áóðäæàíàäçå, ïîëàãàþùàÿ, ÷òî ìîðàëüíîãî ïðàâà îñòàâàòüñÿ ó ðóëÿ ãîñóäàðñòâà ó ïðåçèäåíòà Ìèõàèëà Ñààêàøâèëè è åãî îêðóæåíèÿ áîëüøå íåò.


Ðàçðóøåíû è âñå ñâÿçè Ãðóçèè ñ Ðîññèåé. Íèêîãäà ðàíåå îòíîøåíèÿ äâóõ ñîñåäíèõ ñòðàí íå áûëè òàêèìè íåïðèìèðèìûìè. Íî è â Òáèëèñè, è â Ìîñêâå ïîíèìàþò, ÷òî âûñòðîèòü èõ çàíîâî õîòü íà êàêîì-òî óðîâíå ïðîñòî íåîáõîäèìî.


Íåäàâíî â Ðîññèè ïîáûâàëè ãðóçèíñêèå äóõîâíûå ëèöà. À âñêîðå ïðèáóäåò â Ìîñêâó è ãðóïïà îáùåñòâåííûõ è êóëüòóðíûõ äåÿòåëåé ðåñïóáëèêè. Îá ýòîì ñîîáùèë èçâåñòíûé àêòåð è ðåæèññåð Ãåîðãèé Êàâòàðàäçå. Ïî åãî ñëîâàì, èì ïîëó÷åíî ñîîòâåòñòâóþùåå ïðèãëàøåíèå îò Îáùåñòâåííîé ïàëàòû Ðîññèè. Óæå ïëàíèðóþòñÿ âñòðå÷è ñ ðîññèéñêèìè ïîëèòèêàìè, îáùåñòâåííûìè è êóëüòóðíûìè äåÿòåëÿìè.


Íà âòîðîì ìåñòå â ðååñòðå îøèáîê è ïîðàæåíèé Ñààêàøâèëè è åãî êîìàíäû ïîòåðÿ òåððèòîðèé Ãðóçèè – 6,78 áàëëîâ, íà òðåòüåì – ðàçãîí àêöèè ïðîòåñòà îïïîçèöèè îò 7 íîÿáðÿ 2007 ãîäà – 5,44 áàëëà.


Ñëåäóþùèå ïîçèöèè ðàñïðåäåëèëèñü ñëåäóþùèì îáðàçîì: áåçðàáîòèöà – 3,95 áàëëîâ, áåçäåéñòâèå â âîïðîñå óðåãóëèðîâàíèÿ îòíîøåíèé ñ Ðîññèåé – 3,84, òàèíñòâåííàÿ ñìåðòü áûâøåãî ïðåìüåð-ìèíèñòðà Çóðàáà Æâàíèÿ – 3,49, ýêîíîìè÷åñêàÿ íåñòàáèëüíîñòü – 2,95 è íà ïîñëåäíåì – äåëî îá óáèéñòâå âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûìè ñîòðóäíèêàìè ÌÂÄ ìîëîäîãî áàíêîâñêîãî êëåðêà Ñàíäðî Ãèðãâëèàíè – 2,55.


«À âîò äëÿ ìåíÿ óáèéñòâî Ãèðãâëèàíè íà ïåðâîì ìåñòå, – ãîâîðèò ýêñ-ìèíèñòð èíîñòðàííûõ äåë Ãðóçèè Ãåîðãèé Õîøòàðèÿ. – Ïîñëå ýòîãî ïîÿâèëñÿ â îáùåñòâå ñèíäðîì íåçàùèùåííîñòè, áåçíàêàçàííîñòè äëÿ ïðåñòóïíèêîâ».


Ïðè ýòîì, ïî åãî ñëîâàì, íåëüçÿ çàêðûâàòü ãëàçà è íà äîñòèæåíèÿ. Íàïðèìåð, íà òî, ÷òî â Ãðóçèè «åñòü àðìèÿ, êîòîðóþ óâàæàþò». Èëè íà òî, ÷òî, â îòëè÷èå îò ðåæèìà ýêñ-ïðåçèäåíòà Ýäóàðäà Øåâàðäíàäçå, îòíîñèòåëüíî ðåøåíû ïðîáëåìû ýíåðãîïîñòàâîê.


«Àòàêà íà áèçíåñ è íà ïðàâî ÷àñòíîé ñîáñòâåííîñòè – âîò ñàìîå ïëîõîå èç òîãî, ÷òî ñäåëàëà ýòà âëàñòü, – âûñêàçûâàåò ìíåíèå ïîëèòîëîã Øàëâà Ïè÷õàäçå. – Ñåðüåçíàÿ ïðîáëåìà è â òîì, ÷òî ñâîáîäû äëÿ ÑÌÈ».


Êàê áû òàì íè áûëî, «âîéíå» â äàííîì îïðîñå ïåðâåíñòâî ïðèíàäëåæèò âïîëíå çàñëóæåííî. Ãðóçèÿ ïðîäîëæàåò ðàçãðåáàòü ïîñëåäñòâèÿ àâãóñòîâñêîãî êðèçèñà è ðàññëåäîâàòü åãî ïåðâîïðè÷èíû. Îäíàêî ëèøü íåçíà÷èòåëüíàÿ ÷àñòü îáùåñòâà âåðèò â òî, ÷òî ýòî ïðîèñõîäèò ÷åñòíî è îáúåêòèâíî. Îá ýòîì ñâèäåòåëüñòâóþò äàííûå âòîðîãî îïðîñà «Êâèðèñ ïàëèòðà».


Òîëüêî 12,3% èç 413 ðåñïîíäåíòîâ äîâåðÿþò ðàáîòå âðåìåííîé ïàðëàìåíòñêîé êîìèññèè Ãðóçèè ïî ðàññëåäîâàíèþ îáñòîÿòåëüñòâ âîéíû ñ Ðîññèåé. Íåãàòèâíî îöåíèâàþò å¸ ðàáîòó 46,4% èç ÷èñëà ó÷àñòíèêîâ îïðîñà, îñòàëüíûå çàòðóäíèëèñü ñ îòâåòîì.


Ê ñëîâó, â ïîíåäåëüíèê êîìèññèÿ çàñëóøàåò ñïèêåðà ïàðëàìåíòà Äàâèäà Áàêðàäçå, à â ïÿòíèöó – ñàìîãî Ìèõàèëà Ñààêàøâèëè.  ñîñòàâå êîìèññèè 10 äåïóòàòîâ, âîçãëàâëÿåò åå îïïîçèöèîíåð Ïààòà Äàâèòàÿ. Îäíàêî ïàðëàìåíòñêóþ îïïîçèöèþ â Ãðóçèè ñ÷èòàþò «êàðìàííîé».


Ñàì æå Äàâèòàÿ, âçÿâøèé ìàíäàò âîïðåêè ðåøåíèþ «Îáúåäèíåííîé îïïîçèöèè» è ïðîñëûâøèé çà ýòî ïðåäàòåëåì, íà ýòî îáèæàåòñÿ è ïðîñèò ïîäîæäàòü çàêëþ÷åíèé, êîòîðûå áóäóò îáíàðîäîâàíû â íà÷àëå äåêàáðÿ. Îí òàêæå îòìåòèë, ÷òî âî âðåìÿ ñëóøàíèé ïðåìüåð-ìèíèñòð, ñåêðåòàðü ÑÍÁ è íà÷àëüíèê Îáúåäèíåííîãî øòàáà óæå ïðèçíàëè ñâîè îøèáêè.


«Ñòðàíå íóæíû ôóíäàìåíòàëüíûå èçìåíåíèÿ, – îòìåòèë îí. – Ýòî ïîäðàçóìåâàåò è îòâåòñòâåííîñòü ïîëèòè÷åñêîé êîìàíäû».
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Ó÷åíüå — ñâåò, à íåó÷åíüå — ïðèÿòíûé ïîëóìðàê. (ñ) Æâàíåöêèé
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 4 2008, 12:18:53     :

http://caucasica.org/analytics/detail.php?ID=1415&print=Y&PHPSESSID=fa9599e79c993f0cece48cbadefca725
Àíàëèç çàÿâëåíèé íåêîòîðûõ îôèöèàëüíûõ ëèö Ãðóçèè â àâãóñòå 2008 ãîäà

03.12.2008

Âìåñòî ýïèãðàôà:

«…Áîëåå òîãî, íàðîä íå âûøåë íà óëèöó è ñòàë ñâåðãàòü ïðàâèòåëüñòâî, íå ïîääàëñÿ ïàíèêå è ïðîäîëæàåò ïàññèâíîå ãåðîè÷åñêîå ñîïðîòèâëåíèå»
(Ïðåçèäåíò Ãðóçèè Ì. Í. Ñààêàøâèëè, 18 àâãóñòà 2008 ãîäà)

Íà÷èíàÿ ñ àâãóñòà 2008 ãîäà è ïî ñåãîäíÿøíèé äåíü ìû âñå íàáëþäàåì ïîïûòêè ãðóçèíñêîãî ðóêîâîäñòâà ñ ïîìîùüþ ñðåäñòâ ìàññîâîé èíôîðìàöèè è óñèëåííîé ïðîïàãàíäèñòñêîé ðàáîòû ïîñòàâèòü «ñ íîã íà ãîëîâó» ñîáûòèÿ àâãóñòà 2008 ãîäà â Þæíîé Îñåòèè.

Ãðóçèíñêèå âëàñòè ïîïûòàëèñü ïðåäñòàâèòü ñâîå âîåííîå âòîðæåíèå â Þæíóþ Îñåòèþ êàê ïîïûòêó îêêóïàöèè Ãðóçèè Ðîññèåé (!).

Ñåãîäíÿ ãðóçèíñêàÿ ñòîðîíà ïûòàåòñÿ äîêàçàòü âñåìó ìèðó, ÷òî Ðîññèÿ ââåëà ñâîè âîéñêà â çîíó êîíôëèêòà åùå 7 àâãóñòà, ÷òî àðòèëëåðèéñêèé øòóðì è òàíêîâàÿ àòàêà íà Öõèíâàë áûëè íå çàïëàíèðîâàííîé îïåðàöèåé ïî «íàâåäåíèþ êîíñòèòóöèîííîãî ïîðÿäêà» âî âñåé Þæíîé Îñåòèè, à âñåãî ëèøü ïîïûòêîé îòáèòü àòàêó íà ãðóçèíñêèå íàñåëåííûå ïóíêòû «ñî ñòîðîíû ñåïàðàòèñòîâ» è «îêêóïàöèîííîé ðîññèéñêîé àðìèè».

Ïðîñòîé àíàëèç âûñêàçûâàíèé (â èõ õðîíîëîãè÷åñêîì ïîðÿäêå) ãðóçèíñêèõ îôèöèàëüíûõ ëèö âî âðåìÿ àâãóñòîâñêèõ ñîáûòèé, ïîçâîëÿåò îïðîâåðãíóòü ñïåøíî ñîçäàííûå ëåãåíäû ñëîâàìè ñàìèõ æå ìèôîòâîðöåâ.

Óæå íàêàíóíå àòàêè íà Öõèíâàë ãðóçèíñêèå âëàñòè ïîïûòàëèñü îïðàâäàòü ñâîè ïîñëåäóþùèå äåéñòâèÿ ÷åðåç íåîäíîêðàòíûå óòâåðæäåíèÿ î òîì, ÷òî â ñëó÷àå âîîðóæåííîãî êîíôëèêòà âñÿ îòâåòñòâåííîñòü ëÿæåò íà ðîññèéñêóþ ñòîðîíó. Îäíîâðåìåííî ðàçëè÷íûìè îôèöèàëüíûìè ëèöàìè óñèëåííî òðàíñëèðóåòñÿ íåæåëàíèå Ãðóçèè âåñòè âîåííûå äåéñòâèÿ ïðîòèâ Þæíîé Îñåòèè è ïðèçûâ ê ïåðåãîâîðàì (êîòîðûå, êñòàòè ñêàçàòü, è äîëæíû áûëè ïðîéòè 8 àâãóñòà).  òî æå âðåìÿ îçâó÷èâàëàñü è óâåðåííîñòü î «ìèðíûõ æèòåëÿõ, ñòðàäàþùèõ ïîä ãíåòîì ñåïàðàòèñòñêîãî ïðàâèòåëüñòâà».

Çàÿâëåíèÿ ðóêîâîäñòâà Òáèëèñè çà ñóòêè äî íà÷àëà àòàêè ìîæíî îïðåäåëèòü ÷åðåç ñëåäóþùóþ ñõåìó:
«Îòâåòñòâåííîñòü çà íàøè ïîñëåäóþùèå äåéñòâèÿ ëåæàò ïîëíîñòüþ íà Ðîññèéñêîé ñòîðîíå» + «Ìû íå õîòèì âîéíû» + «Íàñåëåíèå Þæíîé Îñåòèè ñòðàäàåò îò äåéñòâèé ñåïàðàòèñòîâ».

Íàêàíóíå àãðåññèè ãðóçèíñêèå ïîëèòèêè çàÿâëÿþò:

«Â ñëó÷àå âîåííûõ äåéñòâèé âñþ îòâåòñòâåííîñòü çà ïîñëåäñòâèÿ ãðóçèíñêàÿ ñòîðîíà âîçëàãàåò íà Ðîññèþ, òàê êàê îíà íå ìîæåò êîíòðîëèðîâàòü ñèòóàöèþ è òåõ ñåïàðàòèñòîâ, êîòîðûõ âîîðóæèëà, êîðìèëà è âûðàñòèëà» (11:19 [Çäåñü è äàëåå óêàçàíà äàòà è âðåìÿ ïóáëèêàöèè ñòàòüè] , 7 àâãóñòà, Ãîñìèíèñòð Ãðóçèè ïî ðåèíòåãðàöèè Òåìóðè ßêîáàøâèëè);

«Òî, ÷òî ñåé÷àñ ïðîèñõîäèò - ðåçóëüòàò ìíîãîëåòíåé ïîëèòèêè… èñòåðè÷åñêîé ìèëèòàðèçàöèè è ïîñòîÿííîé âîåííîé ðèòîðèêè è íàñòîÿùåé âîåííîé ïðîïàãàíäû ïîñëåäíèõ äíåé ñî ñòîðîíû ðîññèéñêèõ òåëåêàíàëîâ. Îòâåòñòâåííîñòü ïîýòîìó âîçëàãàåòñÿ íà òåõ, êòî ðàçâèâàåò âñå ýòî ïîñëåäíèå ãîäû» (12:56, 7 àâãóñòà, Ïðåçèäåíò Ãðóçèè Ìèõàèë Ñààêàøâèëè) ;

«Ìû ãîòîâû âåñòè ìèðíûå ïåðåãîâîðû ïî óðåãóëèðîâàíèþ êîíôëèêòà. Åñòü åùå âîçìîæíîñòü ê ïåðåãîâîðàì äëÿ ðåøåíèÿ ýòîãî êðèçèñà»…«Ïðèçûâàþ Ðîññèéñêóþ Ôåäåðàöèþ, ïîêà åñòü âîçìîæíîñòü, ñîõðàíèòü ìèð â ðåãèîíå» (19:33, 7 àâãóñòà, Ñåêðåòàðü íàöáåçîïàñíîñòè Ãðóçèè Àëåêñàíäð Ëîìàÿ);

«Ãðóçèÿ åñòåñòâåííûé ñîþçíèê Ðîññèè. Ëþáîé ïðåçèäåíò Ãðóçèè áóäåò ïðèçâàí èìåòü õîðîøèå îòíîøåíèÿ ñ Ðîññèåé. Ðîññèÿ èìååò øàíñ óðåãóëèðîâàòü êîíôëèêò â Öõèíâàëüñêîì ðåãèîíå» (19:52, 7 àâãóñòà, Ïðåçèäåíò Ãðóçèè Ìèõàèë Ñààêàøâèëè).

Ïî÷òè â êàæäîì âûñòóïëåíèè çâó÷àò ïðèçûâû ê ìèðó:

«Ìû â îäíîñòîðîííåì ïîðÿäêå âðåìåííî ïðåêðàùàåì îãîíü â çîíå êîíôëèêòà. Ýòî íàøà ïîñëåäíÿÿ ïîïûòêà ïðåäîòâðàùåíèÿ øèðîêîìàñøòàáíûõ âîåííûõ äåéñòâèé»…«Ìû ñäåëàåì âñå, ÷òîáû èçáåæàòü âîåííîãî ïðîòèâîñòîÿíèÿ» (19:05, 7 àâãóñòà, Ãîñìèíèñòð Ãðóçèè ïî ðåèíòåãðàöèè Òåìóðè ßêîáàøâèëè);

«Ïðåçèäåíò è Âåðõîâíûé ãëàâíîêîìàíäóþùèé Ãðóçèè îòäàë ïðèêàç âñåì ïîäðàçäåëåíèÿì Âîîðóæåííûõ ñèë ñòðàíû íå îòâå÷àòü íà îãîíü ñåïàðàòèñòîâ. Òàêîå ðåøåíèå áûëî ïðèíÿòî íåñìîòðÿ íà òî, ÷òî â ðåçóëüòàòå îáîñòðåíèÿ ñèòóàöèè â çîíå êîíôëèêòà íåäàâíî ïîãèá îäèí ãðóçèíñêèé ìèðîòâîðåö»… «Ìû ãîòîâû âåñòè ìèðíûå ïåðåãîâîðû ïî óðåãóëèðîâàíèþ êîíôëèêòà. Åñòü åùå âîçìîæíîñòü ê ïåðåãîâîðàì äëÿ ðåøåíèÿ ýòîãî êðèçèñà» (19:33, 7 àâãóñòà, Ñåêðåòàðü íàöáåçîïàñíîñòè Ãðóçèè Àëåêñàíäð Ëîìàÿ);

«Äàâàéòå äàäèì øàíñ ìèðó è äèàëîãó»… «ß ñîçíàòåëüíî ïîøåë íà òàêîå ðåøåíèå. Òåì ñàìûì ÿ õîòåë ïîëó÷èòü âîçìîæíîñòü ïðåäëîæèòü âàì ïåðåãîâîðû íà òåìó ìîèõ ìèðíûõ èíèöèàòèâ ïî óðåãóëèðîâàíèþ êîíôëèêòà» (19-52, 7 àâãóñòà, Ïðåçèäåíò Ãðóçèè Ìèõàèë Ñààêàøâèëè);

Íåñìîòðÿ íà ïðèçûâû ê ìèðíîìó ïðîöåññó óðåãóëèðîâàíèÿ, îôèöèàëüíûé Òáèëèñè âñÿ÷åñêè ïûòàåòñÿ äèñêðåäèòèðîâàòü âëàñòè Þæíîé Îñåòèè è ïðåäñòàâèòü èõ â òàêîì ñâåòå, êîãäà î ïåðåãîâîðàõ íå ìîæåò áûòü è ðå÷è:

«Êîêîéòû âûøåë èç ïîä êîíòðîëÿ Ðîññèè è ïûòàåòñÿ äåéñòâîâàòü ñàìîñòîÿòåëüíî»… «Êîêîéòû âçÿë â çàëîæíèêè ñîáñòâåííûé íàðîä, ÷òîáû ñïðîâîöèðîâàòü Ãðóçèþ íà íà÷àëî âîåííûõ äåéñòâèé»… «èìåííî îí ïðèâåë ê òîìó, ÷òî ïðîèñõîäèò â ðåãèîíå». «Ìû íå ñîáèðàåìñÿ èäòè íà ïîâîäó ó Êîêîéòû» (11:19, 7 àâãóñòà, Ãîñìèíèñòð Ãðóçèè ïî ðåèíòåãðàöèè Òåìóðè ßêîáàøâèëè);

«Ìû ðàáîòàåì è íàäååìñÿ, ÷òî ðîññèéñêèå äèïëîìàòû áóäóò ðàáîòàòü ñ íàìè. ß ïðèçûâàþ Ðîññèþ ïðèçâàòü âñåõ îôèöèàëüíûõ ëèö, êîòîðûå ñàìè ñåáÿ íàçûâàþò "ïðàâèòåëüñòâîì Þæíîé Îñåòèè" è êîòîðûå ïî óêàçàíèÿì èç Ìîñêâû óïðàâëÿþò ýòîé òåððèòîðèåé»… «Ýòî ñóìàñøåñòâèå, âñå âìåñòå ìû äîëæíû îñòàíîâèòñÿ. Ìû äîëæíû íàéòè ìåðû, ÷òîáû ïðåêðàòèòü íàñèëèå è èíöèäåíòû, êîòîðûå ñîçäàþò ïðîáëåìû ìèðíîìó íàñåëåíèþ. Ìû áóäåì ïðîÿâëÿòü ìàêñèìàëüíóþ ñäåðæàííîñòü, íî íèêîìó íå ñîâåòóåì ïðîäîëæàòü ïðîâîêàöèè» (12:56, 7 àâãóñòà, Ïðåçèäåíò Ãðóçèè Ìèõàèë Ñààêàøâèëè);

Ïîñëå íà÷àëà áîåâûõ äåéñòâèé â ïðåññå íà÷èíàþò çâó÷àòü çàÿâëåíèÿ î ôàòàëüíîé íåèçáåæíîñòè ïðîèñõîäÿùåãî, ÷òî âûáîðà ó ãðóçèíñêîãî ðóêîâîäñòâà íå îñòàåòñÿ, à íàâåäåíèå «êîíñòèòóöèîííîãî ïîðÿäêà» íà òåððèòîðèè Þæíîé Îñåòèè – åäèíñòâåííî ïðàâèëüíîå ðåøåíèå:

«Ãðóçèíñêàÿ ñòîðîíà ïðèíÿëà ðåøåíèå î âîññòàíîâëåíèè êîíñòèòóöèîííîãî ïîðÿäêà â Öõèíâàëüñêîì ðåãèîíå. Ñîîáùåíèå îá ýòîì ðàñïðîñòðàíèë òáèëèññêèé èíôîðìàöèîííî-àíàëèòè÷åñêèé ïîðòàë «Ãðóçèÿ Online» ñî ññûëêîé íà çàÿâëåíèå êîìàíäóþùåãî ìèðîòâîð÷åñêèìè îïåðàöèÿìè ÎØ ÂÑ Ãðóçèè, áðèãàäíîãî ãåíåðàëà Ìàìóêó Êóðàøâèëè. Ïî åãî ñëîâàì, â ñâÿçè ñ òåì, ÷òî îñåòèíñêàÿ ñòîðîíà íå ïîæåëàëà ìèðà è äèàëîãà äëÿ ñòàáèëèçàöèè îáñòàíîâêè â çîíå êîíôëèêòà, ãðóçèíñêàÿ ñòîðîíà ïðèíÿëà ðåøåíèå î âîññòàíîâëåíèè êîíñòèòóöèîííîãî ïîðÿäêà â çîíå êîíôëèêòà» ;

«Ìèðíîå íàñåëåíèå â çîíå êîíôëèêòà íèêîãäà áîëüøå íå áóäåò ïîäâåðãàòüñÿ îïàñíîñòè»… «Ìû áûëè âûíóæäåíû ñäåëàòü ýòî äëÿ óñòàíîâëåíèÿ ìèðà»… «ýòè äåéñòâèÿ áóäóò ïðîäîëæàòüñÿ äî òåõ ïîð, ïîêà â ðåãèîíå íå áóäåò óñòàíîâëåí îêîí÷àòåëüíûé ìèð è ïîðÿäîê» , «Â íàñòîÿùåå âðåìÿ ïðàâèòåëüñòâåííûå ñèëû îñóùåñòâëÿþò äåéñòâèÿ ïî âîññòàíîâëåíèþ è óñòàíîâëåíèþ ãàðàíòèðîâàííîãî ìèðíîãî óðåãóëèðîâàíèÿ, ïðè êîòîðîì íå áóäåò ñîçäàâàòüñÿ óãðîçà ìèðíîìó íàñåëåíèþ ðåãèîíà»… «Ýòè äåéñòâèÿ ïðîäîëæàþòñÿ è â ýòó ìèíóòó è ïðîäîëæàòñÿ äî òåõ ïîð, ïîêà íå äîñòèãíåì æåëàåìîé öåëè» (09:28 8 àâãóñòà, Ïðåìüåð-ìèíèñòð Ãðóçèè Âëàäèìèð Ãóðãåíèäçå);

«Ãðóçèÿ íèêîãäà íå áûëà èíèöèàòîðîì ýòîé êîíôðîíòàöèè, íî Ãðóçèÿ íå óñòóïèò ñâîåé òåððèòîðèè. Ãðóçèÿ íå îòêàæåòñÿ îò ñâîåãî ïðàâ» (11:50, 8 àâãóñòà, Ïðåçèäåíò Ãðóçèè Ìèõàèë Ñààêàøâèëè).

Óäèâèòåëüíà ðèòîðèêà îôèöèàëüíûõ ëèö Ãðóçèè â îòíîøåíèè âëàñòåé Þæíîé Îñåòèè – ïîñòîÿííûå óòâåðæäåíèÿ î íåîáõîäèìîñòè ïåðåãîâîðíîãî ïðîöåññà, ïðè÷åì íà ëþáûõ óñëîâèÿõ è îäíîâðåìåííî, â òîì æå ñàìîì òåêñòå, äàíà óñòàíîâêà íà íåîáõîäèìîñòè óñòðàíåíèÿ ýòèõ ñàìûõ ñåïàðàòèñòñêèõ âëàñòåé. Î ÷åì æå áóäóò òîãäà ýòè ïåðåãîâîðû? Âåðîÿòíî, ïðåäëîæåíèÿ î ìèðå âñåãî ëèøü êðàñèâî ñîñòàâëåííûé óëüòèìàòóì: âåðíóòü Þæíóþ Îñåòèþ ïîä þðèñäèêöèþ Ãðóçèè ëþáûì ñïîñîáîì - áóäü òî âîåííàÿ îïåðàöèÿ èëè äîáðîâîëüíàÿ ñäà÷à îðóæèÿ. Äðóãèõ ïðåäëîæåíèé â çàÿâëåíèÿõ íàìè óâèäåíî íå áûëî. Íàèáîëåå õàðàêòåðíûé ñïè÷ ïðèíàäëåæèò Ãîñìèíèñòðó Ãðóçèè ïî ðåèíòåãðàöèè Òåìóðè ßêîáàøâèëè (12:04, 8 àâãóñòà): «ß ñ÷èòàþ ïîåçäêó â Öõèíâàëè íåöåëåñîîáðàçíîé, ìîæíî íàéòè ìåñòî ïîëó÷øå. ×òî êàñàåòñÿ ôîðìàòà ïåðåãîâîðîâ, òî ìû ñîãëàñíû êàê íà ïðÿìûå ïåðåãîâîðû ñ îñåòèíñêèìè ñåïàðàòèñòàìè, òàê è ïðè ïîñðåäíè÷åñòâå ìåæäóíàðîäíûõ îðãàíèçàöèé»… à ãðóçèíñêèõ ñîëäàò â ðåãèîíå «ñòîëüêî, ñêîëüêî íóæíî, à ñåïàðàòèñòîâ òàì áûòü íå äîëæíî».

Òàêèì îáðàçîì, èíôîðìàöèîííàÿ êîíöåïöèÿ ñèëîâîãî ðåøåíèÿ êîíôëèêòà ñâîäèëàñü ê òîìó, ÷òîáû äèñòàíöèèðîâàòü Ðîññèþ îò Þæíîé Îñåòèè, ïîëó÷èòü åñëè íå ïîääåðæêó, òî, ïî êðàéíåé ìåðå, õîòÿ áû íå àêòèâíîå ïðîòèâîäåéñòâèå.

Ïåðåëîìíûé ìîìåíò íàñòóïàåò 8 àâãóñòà, êîãäà Ãðóçèÿ íà÷èíàåò ïîíèìàòü, ÷òî Ðîññèÿ íå îñòàíîâèòñÿ íà óñòíûõ ïîðèöàíèÿõ.

 èíôîðìàöèîííîì ïîëå íàñòóïàåò ïóòàíèöà è íåñîãëàñîâàííîñòü. Êîíöåïöèÿ íà÷èíàåò òåðÿòü îñíîâíîå íàïðàâëåíèå. Íà÷èíàåò âûðèñîâûâàòüñÿ íîâûé îáðàç âðàãà – Ðîññèè.

Ïîçæå, 22 àâãóñòà Ïðåçèäåíò Ãðóçèè âî âðåìÿ âûñòóïëåíèÿ ïåðåä ãðóçèíñêèì ïàðëàìåíòîì çàÿâèò:
«…7 àâãóñòà íà÷àëîñü â íåñêîëüêèõ íàøèõ äåðåâíÿõ. Èõ îáñòðåëèâàëè èç äåðåâíè Õåòàãóðîâî è äðóãèõ òî÷åê, ñ ïîçèöèé ðîññèéñêèõ ìèðîòâîðöåâ, ÷òî ðóññêèå îòðèöàþò. Íî êîãäà ìû íî÷üþ ïîëó÷èëè èíôîðìàöèþ, ÷òî âîåííàÿ òåõíèêà ïîäõîäèò ê Ðîêñêîìó òóííåëþ, ìû ïðèíÿëè ðåøåíèå. Ìû âûïîëíÿëè ìèðíûé äîãîâîð äî êîíöà, âîçìîæíî, â ýòîì áûëà íàøà îøèáêà. Ó íàñ íå áûëî òÿæåëîé òåõíèêè è âîîðóæåíèé â Òàìàðàøåíè, Êóðòå è äðóãèõ äåðåâíÿõ - â ñîîòâåòñòâèè ñ ñîãëàøåíèåì…».

 äàëüíåéøåì òåçèñ î ââîäå ðîññèéñêèõ âîéñê â çîíó êîíôëèêòà áóäåò îçâó÷åí åùå íå ðàç.

Îñòàíîâèìñÿ ñíà÷àëà íà îáâèíåíèÿõ â àäðåñ ðîññèéñêèõ ìèðîòâîð÷åñêèõ ñèë, êîòîðûå, ÿêîáû, ó÷àñòâîâàëè â áîåâûõ äåéñòâèÿõ ïðîòèâ ãðóçèíñêèõ ñèë. Âîò ÷òî ãîâîðÿò î ìèðîòâîð÷åñêèõ ñèëàõ îôèöèàëüíûå ëèöà Ãðóçèè:

«Ðîññèéñêèå ìèðîòâîðöû íå âêëþ÷àëèñü â ñîáûòèÿ, ïðîòåêàþùèå ïîñëåäíèå ñóòêè â Öõèíâàëè è, åñòåñòâåííî, ñ ó÷åòîì èõ ìàíäàòà, ìû âñÿ÷åñêè ñòàðàåìñÿ çàùèòèòü èõ áåçîïàñíîñòü» (12:13, 8 àâãóñòà, Çàìåñòèòåëü ìèíèñòðà âíóòðåííèõ äåë Ãðóçèè Åêàòåðèíà Çãóëàäçå);

«…Ãîâîðÿ î ïîçèöèè, çàíÿòîé ðîññèéñêèìè ìèðîòâîð÷åñêèìè ñèëàìè, äèñëîöèðîâàííûìè â çîíå ãðóçèíî-îñåòèíñêîãî êîíôëèêòà, ãîñìèíèñòð Ãðóçèè ßêîáàøâèëè ñêàçàë ÷òî “îíè, ìèðîòâîðöû, âûñîêèå ïðîôåññèîíàëû, èõ íå íàäî âìåøèâàòü â ýòó ñèòóàöèþ”. “ß âîñõèùàþñü ãåíåðàëîì Êóëàõìåòîâûì, îí íàñòîÿùèé ïàòðèîò Ðîññèè, äîñòîéíûé ÷åëîâåê”…» (13:53, 8 àâãóñòà).

Êàê âèäíî èç çàÿâëåíèé îôèöèàëüíûõ ëèö äî ââîäà âîéñê ÐÔ â ïîìîùü ìèðîòâîðöàì, íèêàêèõ ïðåòåíçèé ñî ñòîðîíû Òáèëèñè åùå íå áûëî.

Çàÿâëåíèå Ñààêàøâèëè äíåì 8 àâãóñòà ìîæíî ñ÷èòàòü ïåðåëîìíûì ìîìåíòîì â ñòðàòåãèè èíôîðìàöèîííîãî îáåñïå÷åíèÿ êîíôëèêòà:

«Äîðîãèå ñîîòå÷åñòâåííèêè!
Êàê âàì èçâåñòíî, â÷åðà â îòâåò íà áîìáîâûé îáñòðåë ñî ñòîðîíû ñåïàðàòèñòîâ (ñåëà) Òàìàðàøåíè è äðóãèõ ñåë, íàõîäÿùèõñÿ ïîä íàøèì êîíòðîëåì, ìû îòêðûëè îãîíü è ïåðåøëè â àòàêó. ß õî÷ó âûñòóïèòü ïåðåä âàìè îò÷åòîì î ïðîøåäøåé íî÷è.
… òî æå âðåìÿ, ÿ õî÷ó çàÿâèòü âî âñåóñëûøàíèå âñåìè ìèðó – ïðîòèâ Ãðóçèè îñóùåñòâëÿåòñÿ øèðîêîìàñøòàáíàÿ âîåííàÿ àãðåññèÿ.  òå÷åíèå ïîñëåäíèõ ìèíóò, â òå÷åíèå ïîñëåäíèõ ÷àñîâ áûëà îñóùåñòâëåíà áîìáàðäèðîâêà òåððèòîðèè Ãðóçèè ñî ñòîðîíû Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè, è áîìáåæêå ïîäâåðãëèñü íàñåëåííûå ïóíêòû, ìèðíûå îáúåêòû, è ýòî íè ÷òî èíîå, êàê êëàññè÷åñêàÿ ìåæäóíàðîäíàÿ àãðåññèÿ…» (11:50, 8 àâãóñòà, Ïðåçèäåíò Ãðóçèè Ìèõàèë Ñààêàøâèëè).

Èç âðåìåíè âûñòóïëåíèÿ Ïðåçèäåíòà Ãðóçèè âèäíî - íè î êàêîé àãðåññèè è îêêóïàöèè ñî ñòîðîíû Ðîññèè äî óòðà 8 àâãóñòà ðå÷è åùå íå áûëî. Íî ýòî ïåðâîå çàÿâëåíèå î ïðè÷àñòíîñòè Ðîññèè ê âîîðóæåííîìó êîíôëèêòó. Õîòÿ ê òîìó ìîìåíòó âîéñêà Ãðóçèè óæå çàíÿëè çíà÷èòåëüíóþ ÷àñòü òåððèòîðèè Þæíîé Îñåòèè.

Ñåêðåòàðü íàöáåçîïàñíîñòè Ãðóçèè Àëåêñàíäð Ëîìàÿ ëèøü ê âå÷åðó 8 àâãóñòà âûäàåò ñâîè ïåðâûå îïàñåíèÿ î âõîæäåíèè Ðîññèéñêèõ âîéñê â Þæíóþ Îñåòèþ:

«Åñëè òî, ÷òî ðîññèéñêèå ñîëäàòû è âîîðóæåíèå áûëè îòïðàâëåíû íà òåððèòîðèþ Ãðóçèè, - ïðàâäà, ýòî îçíà÷àåò, ÷òî ìû íàõîäèìñÿ â ñîñòîÿíèè âîéíû ñ Ðîññèåé» .

Ê òîìó âðåìåíè Ä. Ìåäâåäåâ óæå ïðèíÿë ðåøåíèå î ââîäå âîéñê â Þæíóþ Îñåòèþ äëÿ ïîìîùè íàñåëåíèþ è ðîññèéñêèì ìèðîòâîðöàì.

Èñòèííûå ïðè÷èíû íà÷àëà îïåðàöèè ïî «âîññòàíîâëåíèþ êîíñòèòóöèîííîãî ïîðÿäêà» - îôèöèàëüíûå ëèöà â ïåðâûå äíè êîíôëèêòà íå ñêðûâàëè. Íàñåëåíèå Ãðóçèè, ðàâíî êàê è ãðóçèíñêèå âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûå ëèöà, âîñïðèíèìàëè ïðîèñõîäÿùåå êàê âîçâðàùåíèå Þæíîé Îñåòèè â ëîíî Ãðóçèè è óíè÷òîæåíèå ñåïàðàòèñòîâ:

«…ß íå çíàþ ãäå íàõîäèòñÿ (Êîêîéòû), è íàäåþñü, ÷òî Êîêîéòû íàõîäèòñÿ òàì, ãäå äîëæåí íàõîäèòüñÿ – â òþðüìå… Ïîëîæåíèå â çîíå êîíôëèêòà òÿæåëàÿ. Âåäóòñÿ èíòåíñèâíûå áîè.  íàñòîÿùåå âðåìÿ ñàìûå èíòåíñèâíûå áîè. Èíôîðìàöèÿ, ðàñïðîñòðàíåííàÿ âàìè (Ðóñòàâè-2) îá óñòàíîâëåíèè êîíòðîëÿ íàä 5 ñåëàìè, ñîîòâåòñòâóåò äåéñòâèòåëüíîñòè. Åñëè íå îøèáàþñü Öõèíâàëè ïîëíîñòüþ â îêðóæåíèè íàøèõ âîîðóæåííûõ ôîðìèðîâàíèé. Ìû íå ñîáèðàåìñÿ áðàòü øòóðìîì íè îäíî ñåëî èëè ãîðîä, íàøåé öåëüþ íå ÿâëÿåòñÿ áðàòü øòóðìîì, íàøà öåëüþ â òîì, ÷òîáû ïðåêðàòèëñÿ îãîíü â íàøåì íàïðàâëåíèè, ÷òîáû ïðåêðàòèëñÿ îãîíü âîîáùå, ÷òîáû ïðåêðàòèëñÿ ðàçãóë áàíäôîðìèðîâàíèé, è ÷òîáû òåððèòîðèÿ Ãðóçèè íå ïðåâðàùàëàñü äëÿ êîãî-ëèáî â ñêëàä îðóæèÿ, ñêëàä íàðêîòèêîâ è ò.ä. è äîëæíî áûòü ïðåêðàùåíî òî áåçîáðàçèå, êîòîðîå â áîëüøîì îáúåìå ïðèòåêàëî ÷åðåç Ðîêñêèé òîííåëü» (03:53, 8 àâãóñòà Ãîñìèíèñòð Ãðóçèè ïî ðåèíòåãðàöèè Òåìóðè ßêîáàøâèëè);

«Ìèðíîå íàñåëåíèå â çîíå êîíôëèêòà íèêîãäà áîëüøå íå áóäåò ïîäâåðãàòüñÿ îïàñíîñòè»… «Ìû áûëè âûíóæäåíû ñäåëàòü ýòî äëÿ óñòàíîâëåíèÿ ìèðà»… «ýòè äåéñòâèÿ áóäóò ïðîäîëæàòüñÿ äî òåõ ïîð, ïîêà â ðåãèîíå íå áóäåò óñòàíîâëåí îêîí÷àòåëüíûé ìèð è ïîðÿäîê» (09:28, 8 àâãóñòà, Ïðåìüåð-ìèíèñòð Ãðóçèè Âëàäèìèð Ãóðãåíèäçå);

«Ïðàâèòåëüñòâåííûå ñèëû Ãðóçèè áûëè âûíóæäåíû ïðèñòóïèòü ê ïðèíÿòèþ ìåð ïî óñòàíîâëåíèþ ìèðà â ðåãèîíå ïîñëå òîãî, êàê íà ìèðíûå èíèöèàòèâû ïðåçèäåíòà Ñààêàøâèëè ñåïàðàòèñòñêèå ñèëû îòâåòèëè áîìáîâûì îáñòðåëîì»… «Â íàñòîÿùåå âðåìÿ ïðàâèòåëüñòâåííûå ñèëû îñóùåñòâëÿþò äåéñòâèÿ ïî âîññòàíîâëåíèþ è óñòàíîâëåíèþ ãàðàíòèðîâàííîãî ìèðíîãî óðåãóëèðîâàíèÿ, ïðè êîòîðîì íå áóäåò ñîçäàâàòüñÿ óãðîçà ìèðíîìó íàñåëåíèþ ðåãèîíà»… «Ýòè äåéñòâèÿ ïðîäîëæàþòñÿ è â ýòó ìèíóòó è ïðîäîëæàòñÿ äî òåõ ïîð, ïîêà íå äîñòèãíåì æåëàåìîé öåëè» (10:54, 8 àâãóñòà, Ïðåìüåð-ìèíèñòð Ãðóçèè Âëàäèìèð Ãóðãåíèäçå);

«…Ãðóçèíñêèé ìèíèñòð ñ÷¸ë íóæíûì îòìåòèòü: "Óìíîæàòü æåðòâû íå â èíòåðåñàõ Ãðóçèè, â ñëó÷àå ñäà÷è îðóæèÿ ìû îáåùàåì, ÷òî íèêòî íå áóäåò òðîíóò, â òîì ÷èñëå äàäèì ìåæäóíàðîäíûå ãàðàíòèè áåçîïàñíîñòè".  òî æå âðåìÿ, îí ñêàçàë, ÷òî åñëè ýòî óñëîâèå öåíòðàëüíûõ âëàñòåé Ãðóçèè áóäåò ïðîèãíîðèðîâàíî, òî ãðóçèíñêàÿ ñòîðîíà íàìåðåíà ïðîäîëæèòü ïîäàâëÿòü îãíåâûå òî÷êè þãîîñåòèíñêîé ñòîðîíû, âçÿòü ïîä ïîëíûé êîíòðîëü Ðîêñêèé òîííåëü, îòêóäà, êàê óòâåðæäàåò ßêîáàøâèëè, íà òåððèòîðèþ Ãðóçèè "ïîñòóïàþò îðóæèå è íàðêîòèêè".
"Íàøà öåëü íå óïðàçäíèòü àâòîíîìèþ Þæíîé Îñåòèè, à çàêðåïèòü ïîëèòè÷åñêèé ñòàòóñ ýòîé ðåñïóáëèêè â ñîñòàâå Ãðóçèè ïîä ãàðàíòèè ìåæäóíàðîäíîãî ñîîáùåñòâà"…» (13:28, 8 àâãóñòà 2008 ã., Ãîñìèíèñòð Ãðóçèè ïî ðåèíòåãðàöèè Òåìóðè ßêîáàøâèëè);

«ß äóìàþ, ÷òî ãðàæäàíå Ðîññèè äîëæíû îñîçíàòü îäíó âåùü: èç-çà êàêîãî-òî êðèìèíàëà Êîêîéòû Ðîññèÿ íà÷àëà âîéíó ñ Ãðóçèåé. Âî âñÿêîì ñëó÷àå, ñî ñòîðîíû òàê âèäíî. Ó ýòîé âîéíû áóäóò ñåðüåçíûå ïîñëåäñòâèÿ äëÿ Êàâêàçà â öåëîì. ß, ÷åñòíî ãîâîðÿ, äî êîíöà íå ïîíèìàþ, íà ÷òî íàäåþòñÿ ðóññêèå. Ìû âûäåðæèì ëþáóþ áîìáåæêó, íå ðàç âûäåðæèâàëè è âûäåðæèì âïðåäü, îòðàçèì ëþáóþ èíòåðâåíöèþ» (18:45, 9 àâãóñòà, Ãîñìèíèñòð Ãðóçèè ïî ðåèíòåãðàöèè Òåìóðè ßêîáàøâèëè);

«Ýòî íàøà îáùàÿ òðàãåäèÿ, íî îáÿçàòåëüíî, ÷òîáû âñå çíàëè, è îñîáåííî íàñåëåíèå Öõèíâàëüñêîãî ðåãèîíà (à òàêæå è æèòåëè Àáõàçèè), ÷òî ãðóçèíû ñ íèìè íå áîðþòñÿ, è íèêòî íå æåëàåò èõ èçãíàíèÿ. Ãðóçèÿ çàùèùàåò öåëîñòíîñòü ñâîèõ ãðàíèö. Ýòî ñïðàâåäëèâîå æåëàíèå è ýòî ïðåäóñìàòðèâàåòñÿ ìåæäóíàðîäíûìè íîðìàìè»… «Âñå õîðîøî çíàþò, ÷òî àâòîíîìèÿ Þæíîé Îñåòèè - ðåçóëüòàò ñèëîâîé ñîâåòèçàöèè Ãðóçèè è áûëà íà íàøåé èñòîðè÷åñêîé òåððèòîðèè ñîçäàíà 80-90 ëåò íàçàä, è îíà íå äîëæíà áûòü èñïîëüçîâàíà îñíîâîé ñåïàðàòèçìà. Íà ýòîé çåìëå íà ïðîòÿæåíèè âåêîâ âñåãäà âìåñòå ñ ãðóçèíàìè ìèðíî æèëè îñåòèíû, òàê êàê è â Àáõàçèè àáõàçû»… «Ãðóçèÿ íèêîãäà íå çàõâàòûâàëà ÷óæèõ òåððèòîðèé, íî ñâîþ çàùèòèò äî êîíöà. Òàê ÷òî ýòî áîðüáà çà òåððèòîðèàëüíóþ öåëîñòíîñòü, à íå ýòíîêîíôëèêò» . (20:49, 9 àâãóñòà, Êàòîëèêîñ-Ïàòðèàðõ Âñåÿ Ãðóçèè Èëèÿ Âòîðîé);

«…ñèòóàöèÿ â Þæíîé Îñåòèè «äîëæíà ñëóæèòü ïðèìåðîì, òàê êàê òàì î÷åíü áîëüøèå ïîòåðè, è ýòî ïðåäñòàâëÿåò îïàñíîñòü óíè÷òîæåíèÿ ìàëûõ íàðîäîâ». «Ìû ìíîãèå âåêà æèëè áîê î áîê, âìåñòå, è ìû íå äîëæíû äîïóñòèòü ðàçðîçíåííîñòè íàðîäîâ Êàâêàçà. Ýòî íå ðàç íàì äîðîãî îáîøëîñü â ïðîøëîì è íàäååìñÿ, ÷òî è â ýòîò ðàç íå áóäåò äîïóùåíà òà æå îøèáêà. Ãðóçèÿ ãîòîâà ê ïîëèòè÷åñêîìó äèàëîãó ñ ó÷åòîì òÿæåñòè ñèòóàöèè è ïðèçûâàåì àáõàçîâ íå ïîääàâàòüñÿ íà èìïåðñêèå ðàñ÷åòû Ðîññèè» (12:10, 10 àâãóñòà 2008 ãîäà, Ãîñìèíèñòð Ãðóçèè ïî âîïðîñàì ðåèíòåãðàöèè Òåìóð ßêîáàøâèëè);

«Íèêàêîãî îòñòóïëåíèÿ â çîíå ãðóçèíî-îñåòèíñêîãî êîíôëèêòà ãðóçèíñêèõ âîéñê íåò è íå áóäåò»… ãðóçèíñêèå âîéñêà âûäåðæàëè òðè ôàçû íàñòóïëåíèÿ: «Ñåé÷àñ íàñòóïèëà ÷åòâåðòàÿ - Ðîññèÿ ïåðåêèíóëà â çîíó áîåâûõ äåéñòâèé âñå ñâîè âîîðóæåííûå ñèëû, êîòîðûå áûëè ñãðóïïèðîâàíû ïî òó ñòîðîíó Ðîêñêîãî òîííåëÿ. Ìû íå íàìåðåíû ãðîáèòü ñâîèõ ñîëäàò è ïðîâîäèì ïåðåãðóïïèðîâêó, ÷òîáû âîñïðåïÿòñòâîâàòü ïðîäâèæåíèþ âïåðåä ïðåâîñõîäÿùèõ ïî ÷èñëó ðîññèéñêèõ âîéñê. Ìû ãîòîâû ê ñîïðîòèâëåíèþ» (17:12, 10 àâãóñòà 2008, Ãîñìèíèñòð Ãðóçèè ïî ðåèíòåãðàöèè Òåìóð ßêîáàøâèëè).

Äàííûå çàÿâëåíèÿ è âûñòóïëåíèé îôèöèàëüíûõ ëèö Ãðóçèè ÿðêî äåìîíñòðèðóþò ðåàëüíûå ïðè÷èíû âòîðæåíèÿ â Þæíóþ Îñåòèþ.

Ïîçæå èíôîðìàöèîííàÿ ñòðàòåãèÿ áóäåò èçìåíåíà. Ðîññèÿ áóäåò ïðåäñòàâëåíà àãðåññîðîì, à Ãðóçèÿ áåççàùèòíûì äåìîêðàòè÷åñêèì ãîñóäàðñòâîì, áåçóñïåøíî ïûòàþùèìñÿ çàùèùàòü ñâîþ ðîäèíó.

Íî â âîåííûõ óñëîâèÿõ ïåðåìåíà âåêòîðà èíôîðìàöèîííîé ïîëèòèêè ïðîèñõîäèò íå òàê ðåçêî è ÿâíî, êàê òîãî áû õîòåëîñü. Ìíîæåñòâî çàÿâëåíèé è âûñòóïëåíèé ïåðâûõ äíåé êîíôëèêòà äàþò ÿñíóþ êàðòèíó ïðè÷èíû íà÷àëà âîîðóæåííîãî âòîðæåíèÿ Ãðóçèè.

À çàâåðøèòü «ïàðàä äåêëàðàöèé» ãðóçèíñêîãî èñòåáëèøìåíòà õîòåëîñü áû öèòàòîé Ñïèêåðà Ïàðëàìåíòà Ãðóçèè Äàâèäà Áàêðàäçå, îïóáëèêîâàííîé â ãðóçèíñêîé ïðåññå 12 àâãóñòà:

«…ìû âñå ñäåëàåì äëÿ òîãî, ÷òîáû ÷åðåç äåñÿòü, ñòî èëè òûñÿ÷ó ëåò Öõèíâàëè è Ñóõóìè áûëè íàøèìè» .

Ýêñïåðòû "Èññëåäîâàòåëüñêîãî Öåíòðà CHARTA CAUCASICA"
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â ðàáîòå èññïîëüçîâàíû ñëåäóþùèå èñòî÷íèêè:
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080807/42291254.html
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080807/42291434.html
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080807/42291992.html
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080807/42292010.html
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080807/42291969.html
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080807/42291992.html
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080807/42292010.html
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080807/42291254.html
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080807/42291434.html
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080808/42292249.html
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080808/42292937.html
http://www.civil.ge/rus/article.php?id=17153
http://www.civilgeorgia.ge/rus/article.php?id=17157
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080808/42293331.html
http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/19758.html
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080808/42293358.html
http://www.regnum.ru/news/1038335.html
http://www.civilgeorgia.ge/rus/article.php?id=17157
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080808/42293808.html
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080808/42292553.html
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080808/42292937.html
http://www.civil.ge/rus/article.php?id=17153
http://www.regnum.ru/news/1038309.html
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080809/42300898.html
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080809/42301094.html
http://www.regnum.ru/news/1038994.html
www.regnum.ru/news/1039078.html
http://www.novosti.ge/geo1/20080812/42302802.html

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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Loanka



: 06.04.2006
: 3745
: Paris

: , 16 2008, 13:43:45     :

À âû âèäåëè ýòîò ôèëüì?

http://www.russia.ru/video/war080808/


Åñòü åñ÷î àíãëèéñêàÿ âåðñèÿ: http://www.russia.ru/video/war080808en/
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