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Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 17 2006, 22:48:14     :

http://www.cursorinfo.co.il/pressa/2006/07/17/inopressa/

Magazine: ÑØÀ ñòàðàþòñÿ ñîáëþñòè áàëàíñ â ïîääåðæêå Èçðàèëÿ
Îáíîâëåíî 17.07 13:44
Äæèì Ðóòåíáåðã, Magazine-The New York Times, 17.07.2006

 âîñêðåñåíüå àäìèíèñòðàöèÿ Áóøà äàëà Èçðàèëþ ìîë÷àëèâîå "äîáðî" íà óíè÷òîæåíèå "Õèçáàëëû", íàçâàâ ðàçðàñòàþùèéñÿ êîíôëèêò íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå âîéíîé ñ òåððîðèçìîì.

Ýòî áûëà ãëàâíàÿ òåìà ïóáëè÷íûõ è ñäåëàííûõ â ÷àñòíîì ïîðÿäêå çàÿâëåíèé âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûõ àìåðèêàíñêèõ ÷èíîâíèêîâ, äàæå êîãäà ïðåçèäåíò Áóø è åãî ñîâåòíèêè âûñòóïèëè ñ çàÿâëåíèåì, ñîäåðæàùèì ïðèçûâ ê ñäåðæàííîñòè â èçðàèëüñêèõ àòàêàõ íà Ëèâàí. Îíè äåëàëè âñå âîçìîæíîå, ÷òîáû ìèíèìèçèðîâàòü ðàçíîãëàñèÿ ñî ñòðàíàìè Åâðîïû è Ðîññèåé íà îòêðûòèè åæåãîäíîãî ñàììèòà "áîëüøîé âîñüìåðêè" â Ñòðåëüíå.

Íî ðàçíîãëàñèÿ áûëè î÷åâèäíû, êîãäà ëèäåðû ïðåäëàãàëè ñâîè òðàêòîâêè ïîäãîòîâëåííîãî íà ñàììèòå çàÿâëåíèÿ , êîòîðîå, ÿâíî ïîäðàçóìåâàÿ "Õèçáàëëó" è åå ïîêðîâèòåëåé â Ñèðèè è Èðàíå, ãëàñèëî, ÷òî íåëüçÿ äîïóñòèòü, ÷òîáû ýêñòðåìèñòñêèå ýëåìåíòû ïîãðóçèëè Áëèæíèé Âîñòîê â õàîñ.

Ïðåçèäåíò Ôðàíöèè Æàê Øèðàê íàçâàë çàÿâëåíèå ïðèçûâîì ê ïðåêðàùåíèþ îãíÿ – â ïîñëåäíèå äíè àäìèíèñòðàöèÿ Áóøà äèñòàíöèðóåòñÿ îò ýòîãî òåðìèíà âåçäå, ãäå îí ïîÿâëÿåòñÿ. Âëàäèìèð Ïóòèí, ïðåçèäåíò Ðîññèè, ïðèíèìàþùåé ñàììèò, çàÿâèë æóðíàëèñòàì, ÷òî, ïî ìíåíèþ Ðîññèè, öåëè Èçðàèëÿ âûõîäÿò çà ðàìêè âîçâðàùåíèÿ ïîõèùåííûõ ñîëäàò.

 áåñåäå ñ æóðíàëèñòàìè Íèêîëàñ Áåðíñ, çàìåñòèòåëü ãîññåêðåòàðÿ ÑØÀ ïî ïîëèòè÷åñêèì âîïðîñàì, ïðèçíàë, ÷òî çàÿâëåíèå íå ïðåäëàãàåò ïîðÿäêà äåéñòâèé ïî óðåãóëèðîâàíèþ êðèçèñà, îíî ñêîðåå ïðåäïîëàãàåò, ÷òî Èçðàèëü îñòàíîâèòñÿ ëèøü ïîñëå òîãî, êàê "Õèçáàëëà" è ÕÀÌÀÑ ïðåêðàòÿò îáñòðåëèâàòü èçðàèëüñêèå ãîðîäà è âåðíóò ïîõèùåííûõ ñîëäàò.

 èíòåðâüþ ïðîãðàììå ABC News "This Week" ãîññåêðåòàðü Êîíäîëèçà Ðàéñ çàÿâèëà: "Èçðàèëü èìååò ïðàâî çàùèùàòü ñåáÿ. Ìû íå ìîæåì îæèäàòü ìåíüøåãî". Îíà òóò æå äîáàâèëà, ÷òî àäìèíèñòðàöèÿ íàõîäèòñÿ "â ïîñòîÿííîì êîíòàêòå ñ Èçðàèëåì, ïðèçûâàåò ê ñäåðæàííîñòè, ïðèçûâàåò çàäóìàòüñÿ î ïîñëåäñòâèÿõ òîãî, ÷òî îí äåëàåò".

 ñâÿçè ñ âîçîáíîâèâøåéñÿ êðèòèêîé ñî ñòîðîíû äåìîêðàòîâ ïî ïîâîäó ýïèçîäè÷åñêîãî âíèìàíèÿ ê Áëèæíåìó Âîñòîêó, Ðàéñ ñêàçàëà, ÷òî íå ïðèíèìàåò ðåøåíèé, åõàòü ëè â ðåãèîí. Ïî ïîâîäó ïðåêðàùåíèÿ îãíÿ îíà çàÿâèëà â ïðîãðàììå "Fox News Sunday", ÷òî "ïðåêðàùåíèå íàñèëèÿ ÷ðåçâû÷àéíî âàæíî, íî åñëè ñëîæèòñÿ ñèòóàöèÿ, êîãäà âñå áóäåò çàâèñèòü îò î÷åðåäíîãî ðåøåíèÿ "Õèçáàëëû" îáñòðåëÿòü Èçðàèëü ðàêåòàìè èëè î÷åðåäíîãî ðåøåíèÿ ÕÀÌÀÑà ïîõèòèòü èçðàèëüñêîãî ãðàæäàíèíà, ýòî íèêóäà íå âåäåò".

Êóäà-òî äîáðàòüñÿ – ÿâíàÿ öåëü àìåðèêàíöåâ, çàÿâèë îñâåäîìëåííûé èñòî÷íèê, îòìåòèâøèé, ÷òî àäìèíèñòðàöèÿ "ïðåäëîæèò ðåøåíèå, ñ êîòîðûì ìû ÷åðåç ÷åòûðå íåäåëè íå îêàæåìñÿ íà òîì æå ìåñòå".

Èñòî÷íèê çàÿâèë òàêæå, ÷òî Ðàéñ ïîåäåò â ðåãèîí, òîëüêî åñëè ñî÷òåò, ÷òî ìîæåò ïîâëèÿòü íà ñèòóàöèþ. Ïîêà æå ÑØÀ ðàññ÷èòûâàþò íà Åãèïåò, Ñàóäîâñêóþ Àðàâèþ è Èîðäàíèþ, êîòîðûå îêàçûâàþò äàâëåíèå íà Èðàí è Ñèðèþ, òðåáóÿ îêàçàòü äàâëåíèå íà "Õèçáàëëó".

Ðàéñ è äðóãèå ÷èíîâíèêè íåðåäêî óïîìèíàëè îá èðàíñêîé ïîääåðæêå "Õèçáàëëû" – Èðàí ïîñòàâèë ìíîãî ðàêåò, óïàâøèõ â Õàéôå, äðóãèõ ðàéîíàõ Èçðàèëÿ è, âîçìîæíî, ïîïàâøèõ â èçðàèëüñêèé êîðàáëü, – è íåêîòîðûå èç íèõ ãîâîðèëè, ÷òî íàñòàë ìîìåíò ðàçðóøèòü ñâÿçü ìåæäó Èðàíîì è Ñèðèåé, ñ îäíîé ñòîðîíû, è áîåâèêàìè "Õèçáàëëû", áåçíàêàçàííî äåéñòâóþùèìè â Þæíîì Ëèâàíå, – ñ äðóãîé.

 òî æå âðåìÿ ïðåäñòàâèòåëè ÑØÀ îñòîðîæíû â îáâèíåíèÿõ â àäðåñ Èðàíà, íå íàçûâàÿ ýòó ñòðàíó âäîõíîâèòåëåì íûíåøíåé âñïûøêè íàñèëèÿ. Íî íåêîòîðûå îòìå÷àëè, ÷òî êðèçèñ îòâëåê ëèäåðîâ îò òîãî, ÷òî íåñêîëüêî äíåé íàçàä áûëî îäíèì èç ãëàâíûõ âîïðîñîâ ïîâåñòêè äíÿ, – äàâëåíèå íà Èðàí ñ öåëüþ äîáèòüñÿ îñòàíîâêè ïðîèçâîäñòâà ÿäåðíîãî ìàòåðèàëà â îáìåí íà ýêîíîìè÷åñêèå èíèöèàòèâû, ïðåäëîæåííûå Åâðîïîé è ÑØÀ. Íåêîòîðûå èñòî÷íèêè âûñêàçàëè ïðåäïîëîæåíèå, ÷òî èðàíñêîå ðóêîâîäñòâî âèäèò â âîçîáíîâèâøåéñÿ âîéíå âîçìîæíîñòü ïðîäåìîíñòðèðîâàòü ñâîþ ñïîñîáíîñòü íàíåñòè óäàð ïî àìåðèêàíñêèì èíòåðåñàì â ðåãèîíå, êàê â Èçðàèëå, òàê è â Èðàêå.

Íî â âîñêðåñåíüå Áóø äîáèëñÿ ïîáåäû, òàê êàê çàÿâëåíèå ëèäåðîâ, ñîäåðæàùåå ïðèçûâû ê ñäåðæàííîñòè â àäðåñ Èçðàèëÿ, îïèñûâàëî êîíôëèêò â òåðìèíàõ âîéíû ñ òåððîðèçìîì.  çàÿâëåíèè îáâèíèëè áîåâèêîâ â ðàçâÿçûâàíèè êîíôëèêòà, îòìåòèâ, ÷òî èõ íàìåðåíèåì ÿâëÿåòñÿ äåñòàáèëèçàöèÿ ðåãèîíà è ïðåêðàùåíèå äåìîêðàòè÷åñêîãî ïðîöåññà â Ëèâàíå.

Àìåðèêàíñêèå èñòî÷íèêè íàçâàëè çàÿâëåíèå ëèäåðîâ G8 ñâèäåòåëüñòâîì ïðîãðåññà â ïîíèìàíèè äðóãèìè ñòðàíàìè ïðè÷èí òåððîðèçìà íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå.

Õîòÿ ó òàêèõ ñàììèòîâ îáû÷íî îáøèðíàÿ ïîâåñòêà äíÿ – îò ýêîíîìè÷åñêèõ èíèöèàòèâ äî áîðüáû ñ áåäíîñòüþ, ÑÏÈÄîì è ÿäåðíûì ðàñïðîñòðàíåíèåì, – Áóø èñïîëüçîâàë êàæäûé èç íèõ ïîñëå òåðàêòîâ 11 ñåíòÿáðÿ 2001 ãîäà äëÿ ïðèâëå÷åíèÿ ñîþçíèêîâ ïî "ãëîáàëüíîé âîéíå ñ òåððîðèçìîì", õîòÿ ìíîãèå ñòðàíû Åâðîïû íå ãîòîâû ïðèíÿòü òàêóþ ôîðìóëèðîâêó.

Íî â ÷àñòíîì ïîðÿäêå ìíîãèå åâðîïåéñêèå ÷èíîâíèêè ãîâîðèëè, ÷òî Áóø ñòîëêíóëñÿ ñ î÷åðåäíûì ñëåäñòâèåì âîéíû â Èðàêå. Îíè íàïîìíèëè î çàÿâëåíèÿõ 2003 ãîäà, ÷òî ñâåðæåíèå Ñàääàìà Õóñåéíà âäîõíåò íîâûå ñèëû â áëèæíåâîñòî÷íûé ìèðíûé ïðîöåññ; òåïåðü, îòìåòèëè îíè, âîéíà âîçîáíîâèëàñü, à ìèðíûé ïðîöåññ óìèðàåò. Èðàí, ïî èõ ìíåíèþ, îñìåëåë èç-çà òîãî, ÷òî ÑØÀ çàíÿëèñü Èðàêîì.

Áóø, Ðàéñ è äðóãèå âîçðàæàëè, ÷òî êðèòèêè óïóñòèëè èç âèäó âàæíûé ïîâîðîò ñîáûòèé: íåêîòîðûå àðàáñêèå ãîñóäàðñòâà, âêëþ÷àÿ Èîðäàíèþ è Ñàóäîâñêóþ Àðàâèþ, ïðèñîåäèíèëèñü ê êðèòèêå äåéñòâèé ÕÀÌÀÑà è "Õèçáàëëû".

Ñ òî÷êè çðåíèÿ Áóøà, çàÿâèëè åãî ñîâåòíèêè, íûíåøíèå àòàêè ÿâëÿþòñÿ ðåàêöèåé íà ðàñïðîñòðàíåíèå äåìîêðàòèè â ðåãèîíå, âêëþ÷àÿ Ëèâàí, ãäå ñëàáîå, íî äåìîêðàòè÷åñêè èçáðàííîå ïðàâèòåëüñòâî ïîÿâèëîñü ïîñëå òîãî, êàê Ñèðèÿ áûëà âûíóæäåíà âûâåñòè âîéñêà èç ýòîé ñòðàíû.

"Íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå íàñòóïèë íîâûé äåíü, è ýòî äåíü, êîãäà íàðîäû Áëèæíåãî Âîñòîêà – íàðîä Ëèâàíà áåç ñèðèéñêîé àðìèè, íàðîä ïàëåñòèíñêèõ òåððèòîðèé ñ äåìîêðàòè÷åñêèì ëèäåðîì Ìàõìóäîì Àááàñîì – ñòðåìÿòñÿ ê äåìîêðàòè÷åñêîì áóäóùåìó, – çàÿâèëà Ðàéñ. – Ìû ïîääåðæèâàåì âñå îòâåòñòâåííûå ñèëû â ðåãèîíå, óìåðåííûå ñòîðîíû, êîòîðûå õîòÿò, ÷òîáû Áëèæíèé Âîñòîê ñòàë èíûì".

Îíà íå îñòàíîâèëàñü íà òîì, ÷òî âûáîðû ïðèâåëè ÕÀÌÀÑ ê âëàñòè íà ïàëåñòèíñêèõ òåððèòîðèÿõ è Ìàõìóäà Àõìàäèíåæàäà – â Èðàíå.

Ñîâåòíèê Áåëîãî äîìà Äýí Áàðòëåò çàÿâèë, ÷òî íåñïîñîáíîñòü çàíÿòüñÿ ãëóáèííûìè ïðîáëåìàìè Áëèæíåãî Âîñòîêà ïðèâåëà ê ïîÿâëåíèþ "Àëü-Êàèäû". Ãîâîðÿ î ñòàðîé ïîëèòèêå, ñ êîòîðîé íåðåäêî ñâÿçûâàþò ñòàáèëüíîñòü â ðåãèîíå, Áàðòëåò ïîä÷åðêíóë, ÷òî "ýòî áûëî çðåþùåå èçíóòðè íåäîâîëüñòâî, èç-çà êîòîðîãî 3 òûñ. àìåðèêàíöåâ ïîãèáëè 11 ñåíòÿáðÿ".

Âûñêàçûâàíèÿ Áàðòëåòà ïðåäñòàâëÿþòñÿ ÷àñòüþ óñèëèé Áåëîãî äîìà ïî ñâÿçûâàíèþ âñåõ äåñòðóêòèâíûõ ýëåìåíòîâ Áëèæíåãî Âîñòîêà è ñîçäàíèþ ïðåäñòàâëåíèÿ î òîì, ÷òî óíè÷òîæåíèå èõ âñåõ, îò "Õèçáàëëû" äî "Àëü-Êàèäû", íåîáõîäèìî äëÿ äîëãîñðî÷íîãî ìèðà.

Âî âðåìÿ ïåðåãîâîðîâ ïî çàÿâëåíèþ ëèäåðîâ âðåìåíàìè êàçàëîñü, ÷òî ÑØÀ îäèíîêè â ñâîåé ïîääåðæêå Èçðàèëÿ, â òî âðåìÿ êàê äðóãèå ñòðàíû æàëîâàëèñü, ÷òî Àìåðèêà ïðåäïðèíèìàåò íåäîñòàòî÷íî óñèëèé, ÷òîáû âîçëîæèòü âèíó çà ýñêàëàöèþ êîíôëèêòà íà Èçðàèëü, ÷üþ ðåàêöèþ íà ïîõèùåíèå ñîëäàò ìíîãèå ñ÷èòàþò ÷ðåçìåðíîé.

Ñàì Áóø, êàçàëîñü, ïûòàåòñÿ íàéòè òî÷íûå ôîðìóëèðîâêè. Îí îòîøåë îò îäíîçíà÷íîé ïîääåðæêè èçðàèëüñêîé îïåðàöèè è, âèäèìî, ïîä äàâëåíèåì ñîþçíèêîâ, ïðèçâàë Èçðàèëü èçáåãàòü æåðòâ ñðåäè ãðàæäàíñêîãî íàñåëåíèÿ è óíè÷òîæåíèÿ ëèâàíñêîé èíôðàñòðóêòóðû.

 âîñêðåñåíüå Áóø çàÿâèë: "Íàø ñèãíàë Èçðàèëþ òàêîâ – çàùèùàéòå ñåáÿ, íî ïîìíèòå î ïîñëåäñòâèÿõ. Òàê ÷òî ìû ïðèçâàëè ê ñäåðæàííîñòè".

Ïóòèí, ó êîòîðîãî ñêëàäûâàþòñÿ íàïðÿæåííûå îòíîøåíèÿ ñ ÑØÀ, ïðîòèâîïîñòàâèë ïîäõîä Ðîññèè îòêàçó Âàøèíãòîíà âåñòè ïðÿìûå ïåðåãîâîðû ñ Èðàíîì. Îí çàÿâèë, ÷òî Ðîññèÿ èñïîëüçóåò âñå êàíàëû, äîáàâèâ, ÷òî ýòè êàíàëû ïðîäåìîíñòðèðîâàëè âàæíîñòü îòêðûòûõ îòíîøåíèé ñ Èðàíîì è ÕÀÌÀÑîì.

Ðàçíèöà ïîäõîäîâ ñòàëà î÷åâèäíîé, êîãäà ÑØÀ äîáèâàëèñü âêëþ÷åíèÿ â çàÿâëåíèå óïîìèíàíèÿ Èðàíà è Ñèðèè è íàìåêà íà ïðè÷àñòíîñòü ýòèõ ñòðàí ê àòàêàì ïðîòèâ Èçðàèëÿ. Áåðíñ ñîîáùèë, ÷òî ýòè ïîïûòêè ïîòåðïåëè íåóäà÷ó. "Íåêîòîðûå ïðàâèòåëüñòâà ñ÷èòàëè ýòî óìåñòíûì, à äðóãèå íåò", – ñêàçàë îí, ïîä÷åðêíóâ, ÷òî è òàê ïîíÿòíî, êàêèå ñòðàíû îí èìååò â âèäó. Ïóòèí âïîñëåäñòâèè çàÿâèë, ÷òî îí ïðåäñòàâëÿåò îäíó èç ýòèõ ñòðàí.

Ïåðåâîä Èíîïðåññà
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 17 2006, 23:10:48     :

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/17/world/middleeast/17diplo.html?pagewanted=1

Despite Joint Statement on Mideast, Strains Emerge as U.S. Supports Israel’s Campaign
By JIM RUTENBERG
Published: July 17, 2006

STRELNA, Russia, July 16 — The Bush administration on Sunday appeared to give Israel tacit approval to cripple Hezbollah, casting the widening conflict in the Middle East in terms of a wider war on terrorism.

That was a central theme of both public and private statements from senior United States officials, even as President Bush and his aides issued a statement that included a call for restraint in Israel’s attacks on Lebanon. They were trying their best to minimize differences with European nations and their Russian hosts at the opening of the annual summit meeting of the Group of 8 industrialized nations here.

But the strains were clear as different leaders offered their interpretations of the statement drafted at the summit meeting that said, in an apparent allusion to Hezbollah and its Iranian and Syrian supporters, “These extremist elements and those that support them cannot be allowed to plunge the Middle East into chaos.”

President Jacques Chirac of France characterized the statement issued here as a call for a cease-fire — a word the Bush administration has sidestepped at every turn over the last few days. The host of the summit meeting, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, told reporters that “we do get the impression that the aims of Israel go beyond just recovering their kidnapped soldiers.’’

Talking to reporters here on Sunday evening, R. Nicholas Burns, the under secretary of state for political affairs, acknowledged that the statement does not present any specific order for steps to solve the crisis; rather, he said, it presumes that Israel will stand down only after Hezbollah and Hamas stop shelling Israeli towns and release captured soldiers.

In an interview on the ABC News program “This Week,” Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said: “Israel has the right to defend itself. We would expect nothing less.’’ She quickly added that the administration had been “in constant contact with the Israelis to urge restraint, to urge them to think about the consequences of what they’re doing.’’

Under renewed criticism by Democrats for engaging in the Middle East only episodically, Ms. Rice said she had made no decision about whether to go to the region. When pressed on a cease-fire, she said on “Fox News Sunday” that “a cessation of violence is crucial, but if that cessation of violence is hostage to Hezbollah’s next decision to launch missiles into Israel or Hamas’s next decision to abduct an Israeli citizen, then we will have gotten nowhere.”

Getting somewhere is clearly the American aim, said a senior official, who noted that administration officials also “want to come up with a solution where you don’t end up in the same place four weeks from now.”

The official, who spoke on condition that his name not be used because he is not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, also said Ms. Rice would travel to the region only if she thought she could influence matters. For now, the official said, the United States is relying on the Egyptians, Saudis and Jordanians to pressure Iran and Syria to pressure Hezbollah.

Ms. Rice and other officials repeatedly noted Iran’s support of Hezbollah — the Iranians appear to have supplied many of the rockets that have hit Haifa, other areas of Israel and perhaps an Israeli ship — and some administration officials said they saw this as the moment to damage the link between Iran and Syria and the Hezbollah fighters who appear to operate with impunity in southern Lebanon.

At the same time, American officials were careful in their accusations against Iran, stopping short of saying that nation inspired the current outbreak of violence. But several officials noted that the crisis had distracted the leaders from what, just days ago, appeared to be one of their main agenda items — pressing Iran to suspend its production of nuclear material in exchange for a broad economic incentives deal offered by Europe and the United States. Several officials suggested that the Iranian leadership might see the renewal of fighting as a chance to demonstrate how it could strike back at American interests in the region, both in Israel and in Iraq.

Yet Mr. Bush won a victory here on Sunday, when a statement issued by the leaders urged Israel to show the “utmost restraint’’ but also cast the new conflict in terms of a wider war on terrorism. The statement blamed militants for the start of the five-day conflict, saying they were intent on destabilizing the entire region, and more specifically were setting back progress toward democracy in Lebanon.

American officials pointed to the statement issued by the leaders of the Group of 8, which also includes Britain, Italy, Germany, Canada and Japan, as evidence of some success in getting other nations to address the root causes of terrorism in the Middle East.

While these summit meetings always have broad agendas — from economic initiatives to programs to deal with poverty, AIDS and proliferation — Mr. Bush has used every one since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks to engage allies in what he has called a “global war on terrorism,’’ a phrase many European nations are hesitant to adopt.

But many European officials privately said that Mr. Bush was facing another of the unintended consequences of the war in Iraq. They cited the administration’s claims, in 2003, that toppling Saddam Hussein would empower Middle East peace efforts; three years later, they noted, fighting has resumed and that effort is moribund. Iran, they contended, felt emboldened by the fact that the United States was distracted in Iraq.

Mr. Bush, Ms. Rice and others countered that their critics had missed a remarkable turn in events, in which some Arab nations, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, were joining in the criticism of the attacks committed by Hamas and Hezbollah.

In Mr. Bush’s view, aides said, the attacks were driven by the reaction of terrorist groups to efforts to spread democracy in the region, including in Lebanon, where a weak but democratically elected government has been in place since Syria was forced to withdraw from the country.

“We have a new day in the Middle East, and it is a day in which the people of the Middle East, the people of Lebanon without Syrian forces there, the people of the Palestinian territories with a democratic leader in Mahmoud Abbas, are seeking to find a democratic future,” Ms. Rice said. “We’re standing with all responsible parties in the region and with moderate parties in the region who want a Middle East that is different than the 30-plus years of — really, 60-plus years — of Middle East history.”

She did not dwell on the fact that elections also brought to power Hamas in the Palestinian territories and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran.

Striking the same theme as Ms. Rice, Dan Bartlett, the White House counselor, said failures to address the deeper issues in the Middle East had ultimately led to the creation of Al Qaeda. Speaking of old policies credited with creating stability in the region, Mr. Bartlett said, “All you had was resentment brewing underneath that, and that’s why you have 3,000 Americans who died’’ on Sept. 11.

Mr. Bartlett’s comments appeared to be part of a White House effort to link all Middle East militant groups together, and to suggest that strangling all of them — from Hezbollah to Al Qaeda — was critical to establishing a long-term peace.

During the talks about drafting the statement here, the United States at times seemed isolated in its support for Israel, with other countries complaining that it was not doing enough to lay blame for the escalation of the crisis on Israel’s reaction to the attacks and to the capture of Israeli soldiers — a reaction that many leaders have described as excessive.

Mr. Bush himself seemed to be struggling to calibrate his comments. He alternated between strongly worded statements supporting Israel’s campaign and, apparently in response to concerns from allies that he was not urging enough restraint, telling Israel to avoid civilian casualties and the destruction of the Lebanese infrastructure.

On Sunday Mr. Bush said of Israel: “Our message to Israel is, look, defend yourself, but as you do so, be mindful of the consequences. And so we’ve urged restraint.”

Mr. Putin, whose own relations with the United States are strained, contrasted Russia’s approach of engaging all the parties with Washington’s refusal to talk directly to Iran. “We are using all channels,” he said, later adding that those channels showed the value of having open relations with Iran and Hamas.

The difference of approach became clear when the United States pressed to cite Iran and Syria in the joint statement with the other leaders, and suggested that both countries were involved, if indirectly, in the attacks on Israel. But Mr. Burns, the under secretary of state for political affairs, said during a late-night briefing here that the effort had failed. “Some governments felt comfortable doing that and some did not,” he said, insisting that it was clear to which nations his statement referred.

Mr. Putin said later that his was one of those countries.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 20 2006, 13:33:50     :

http://www.newsru.co.il/press/20jul2006/cds_dam.html

Äèïëîìàòèè âñåãî ìèðà áîëüøå âíèìàíèÿ óäåëÿþò ïðåäñòîÿùåìó âèçèòó â ðåãèîí Êîíäîëèçû Ðàéñ, ÷åì èíèöèàòèâå Êîôè Àííàíà î ñîçäàíèè ñèë ðàçúåäèíåíèÿ íà þãå Ëèâàíà. Àìåðèêàíñêèé ãîññåêðåòàðü äîëæíà âûëåòåòü èç Íüþ-Éîðêà çàâòðà ïîñëå âñòðå÷è ñ ãåíåðàëüíûì ñåêðåòàðåì ÎÎÍ (âìåñòå ñ Âåðõîâíûì ïðåäñòàâèòåëåì ÅÑ Õàâüåðîì Ñîëàíîé) â òîì ÷èñëå è â ñâÿçè ñ çàñåäàíèåì Ñîâåòà Áåçîïàñíîñòè ÎÎÍ, êîòîðîå, êàê ïðåäïîëîæèë ïîñòîÿííûé ïðåäñòàâèòåëü ÑØÀ â ÎÎÍ Äæîí Áîëòîí, ìîæåò ñîñòîÿòüñÿ â ýòè âûõîäíûå. Âîïðîñ, êîòîðûé èíòåðåñóåò âñåõ, çàêëþ÷àåòñÿ â òîì, ÷òî îíà íàìåðåíà ïðåäïðèíÿòü è ïîåäåò ëè îíà â Äàìàñê, ÷òîáû ïîíÿòü, ìîæåò ëè îðóæèå â áëèæàéøåå âðåìÿ óñòóïèòü ìåñòî äèïëîìàòè÷åñêèì èíèöèàòèâàì. Íî äî ýòîãî åùå äàëåêî. Äåéñòâèòåëüíî, â÷åðà ñèðèéñêèé ïðåçèäåíò Áàøàð Àñàä ñêàçàë, ÷òî "íåîáõîäèìî ïðåêðàòèòü îãîíü". Íî ïðåäñòàâèòåëü Ãîñäåïàðòàìåíòà èñêëþ÷èë âîçìîæíîñòü âèçèòà ãîñïîæè Ðàéñ â Äàìàñê, êîòîðûé îòíîñèòñÿ ê ãðóïïå "èçãîåâ" âìåñòå ñ "Õèçáàëëàõ" è Èðàíîì. Ìîæíî áûëî áû ãîâîðèòü î ïîäîáíîì âèçèòå, åñëè áû îí ìîã îêàçàòüñÿ óñïåøíûì, ÷òî äëÿ àìåðèêàíöåâ îçíà÷àëî áû âíåñòè ðàñêîë â îòíîøåíèÿ ìåæäó Ñèðèåé è Èðàíîì. Èëè åñëè áû Èçðàèëü óæå çàâåðøèë ñâîè âîåííûå îïåðàöèè è ìîæíî áûëî áû ÷òî-òî íàâÿçàòü Àñàäó. Íî îá ýòîì åùå ðàíî ãîâîðèòü.

Ñ äðóãîé ñòîðîíû, Áóø ïîëàãàåò, ÷òî Äàìàñê ÿâëÿåòñÿ îäíèì èç êëþ÷åé ê óðåãóëèðîâàíèþ êðèçèñà, êàê âûÿñíèëîñü èç çíàìåíèòîãî ðàçãîâîðà ñ Òîíè Áëýðîì, "óñëûøàííîãî" áëàãîäàðÿ âêëþ÷åííîìó ìèêðîôîíó âî âðåìÿ ñàììèòà "áîëüøîé âîñüìåðêè" â Ñàíêò-Ïåòåðáóðãå. Ïðîáëåìà â òîì, ÷òî ìîëîäîé Àñàä (åìó 40 ëåò) – íîâè÷îê â êðèçèñå òàêîãî ðàçìàõà, è ñëåäóåò ïîñìîòðåòü, õâàòèò ëè ó íåãî ñèë îêàçûâàòü òâåðäóþ ïîääåðæêó "Õàìàñó". Áóäåò ëè âêëþ÷åí â ïðîãðàììó òóðíå Äàìàñê èëè íåò, ïîåçäêà Êîíäîëèçû Ðàéñ èìååò áîëüøîå çíà÷åíèå: ýòî ìàêñèìóì òîãî, ÷òî Ñîåäèíåííûå Øòàòû, ïîõîæå, ãîòîâû ïîçâîëèòü äèïëîìàòèè íà äàííîì ýòàïå.

Áóø íå íàìåðåí âìåøèâàòüñÿ â îïåðàöèè, ïðîâîäèìûå èçðàèëüñêîé àðìèåé, ïîêà îíè íå áóäóò çàâåðøåíû, è, êàê ïèøåò ãàçåòà Guardian, îí ãàðàíòèðîâàë Òåëü-Àâèâó íåäåëþ ïîëíîé ñâîáîäû äåéñòâèé. Áóø òàê ïîñòóïèë, èñõîäÿ èç ñîáñòâåííûõ èíòåðåñîâ: Áåëûé äîì ñêëîíåí ñ÷èòàòü, ÷òî äàííûé êðèçèñ ðàçãîðåëñÿ ïî èíèöèàòèâå Òåãåðàíà è Äàìàñêà, ÷òîáû âîñïîëüçîâàòüñÿ òåì, ÷òî îíè âîñïðèíèìàþò êàê ìîìåíò àìåðèêàíñêîé ñëàáîñòè. Åñëè Èçðàèëü ïðîäåìîíñòðèðóåò, ÷òî îíè ïðîñ÷èòàëèñü, òî Áóø áóäåò òîëüêî ðàä. È, íåñìîòðÿ íà ýòî, ïðèñóòñòâèå ãîññåêðåòàðÿ â ðåãèîíå íåîáõîäèìî: Áåëûé äîì îáâèíÿþò â ðàâíîäóøèè â îòíîøåíèè ñîáûòèé, ïðîèñõîäèâøèõ â ïîñëåäíèå ìåñÿöû â Ñèðèè, Ëèâàíå è Ïàëåñòèíå. Êðîìå òîãî, óñïîêîÿòñÿ àðàáñêèå ñîþçíèêè Ñîåäèíåííûõ Øòàòîâ. Â÷åðà êîðîëü Èîðäàíèè Àáäàëëà ïîòðåáîâàë àêòèâèçèðîâàòü óñèëèÿ, íàïðàâëåííûå íà ïðåêðàùåíèå îãíÿ. Åñëè âîåííûå îïåðàöèè çàòÿíóòñÿ, òî ñóùåñòâóåò îïàñíîñòü òîãî, ÷òî îáùåñòâåííîå ìíåíèå óìåðåííûõ àðàáñêèõ ñòðàí ìîáèëèçóåòñÿ è ñïðîâîöèðóåò êðèçèñ ñâîèõ ïðàâèòåëüñòâ.

Èíûìè ñëîâàìè, Êîíäîëèçå Ðàéñ ïðåäñòîèò ñëåäîâàòü â ýòîì âèçèòå òîíêîé ëèíèè. Ñ îïðåäåëåííîé äîëåé îïàñåíèÿ: íà ñåâåðå Èçðàèëÿ îíà ìîæåò óâèäåòü ïðîâàë ïîëèòè÷åñêîãî êóðñà, áîëåå ìÿãêîãî è ìåíåå îäíîñòîðîííåãî, êîòîðûé îíà íåäàâíî íàâÿçàëà Áåëîìó äîìó.  Âàøèíãòîíå åå îáâèíÿþò â òîì, ÷òî Òåãåðàí è Äàìàñê óñìîòðåëè â ýòîì êóðñå çàñòåí÷èâîñòü àìåðèêàíöåâ è ïîýòîìó îñìåëèëèñü íàïàñòü íà Èçðàèëü. Âåðîÿòíî, âðåìÿ åùå íå äî êîíöà óïóùåíî, ïîýòîìó ñòîèò ëåòåòü â ðåãèîí è äàòü ïîíÿòü, ÷òî Èðàí è Ñèðèÿ îøèáëèñü.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov Jr
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 17.03.2005
: 47
: âîññòàë èç ïåïëà

: , 22 2006, 09:41:42     :

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/22/world/middleeast/22military.html?hp&ex=1153627200&en=ccb5206208860925&ei=5094&partner=homepage

U.S. Speeds Up Bomb Delivery for the Israelis

By DAVID S. CLOUD and HELENE COOPER
Published: July 22, 2006

WASHINGTON, July 21 — The Bush administration is rushing a delivery of precision-guided bombs to Israel, which requested the expedited shipment last week after beginning its air campaign against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, American officials said Friday.

The decision to quickly ship the weapons to Israel was made with relatively little debate within the Bush administration, the officials said. Its disclosure threatens to anger Arab governments and others because of the appearance that the United States is actively aiding the Israeli bombing campaign in a way that could be compared to Iran’s efforts to arm and resupply Hezbollah.

The munitions that the United States is sending to Israel are part of a multimillion-dollar arms sale package approved last year that Israel is able to draw on as needed, the officials said. But Israel’s request for expedited delivery of the satellite and laser-guided bombs was described as unusual by some military officers, and as an indication that Israel still had a long list of targets in Lebanon to strike.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Friday that she would head to Israel on Sunday at the beginning of a round of Middle Eastern diplomacy. The original plan was to include a stop to Cairo in her travels, but she did not announce any stops in Arab capitals.

Instead, the meeting of Arab and European envoys planned for Cairo will take place in Italy, Western diplomats said. While Arab governments initially criticized Hezbollah for starting the fight with Israel in Lebanon, discontent is rising in Arab countries over the number of civilian casualties in Lebanon, and the governments have become wary of playing host to Ms. Rice until a cease-fire package is put together.

To hold the meetings in an Arab capital before a diplomatic solution is reached, said Martin S. Indyk, a former American ambassador to Israel, “would have identified the Arabs as the primary partner of the United States in this project at a time where Hezbollah is accusing the Arab leaders of providing cover for the continuation of Israel’s military operation.”

The decision to stay away from Arab countries for now is a markedly different strategy from the shuttle diplomacy that previous administrations used to mediate in the Middle East. “I have no interest in diplomacy for the sake of returning Lebanon and Israel to the status quo ante,” Ms. Rice said Friday. “I could have gotten on a plane and rushed over and started shuttling around, and it wouldn’t have been clear what I was shuttling to do.”

Before Ms. Rice heads to Israel on Sunday, she will join President Bush at the White House for discussions on the Middle East crisis with two Saudi envoys, Saud al-Faisal, the foreign minister, and Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the secretary general of the National Security Council.

The new American arms shipment to Israel has not been announced publicly, and the officials who described the administration’s decision to rush the munitions to Israel would discuss it only after being promised anonymity. The officials included employees of two government agencies, and one described the shipment as just one example of a broad array of armaments that the United States has long provided Israel.

One American official said the shipment should not be compared to the kind of an “emergency resupply” of dwindling Israeli stockpiles that was provided during the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, when an American military airlift helped Israel recover from early Arab victories.

David Siegel, a spokesman for the Israeli Embassy in Washington, said: “We have been using precision-guided munitions in order to neutralize the military capabilities of Hezbollah and to minimize harm to civilians. As a rule, however, we do not comment on Israel’s defense acquisitions.”

Israel’s need for precision munitions is driven in part by its strategy in Lebanon, which includes destroying hardened underground bunkers where Hezbollah leaders are said to have taken refuge, as well as missile sites and other targets that would be hard to hit without laser and satellite-guided bombs.

Pentagon and military officials declined to describe in detail the size and contents of the shipment to Israel, and they would not say whether the munitions were being shipped by cargo aircraft or some other means. But an arms-sale package approved last year provides authority for Israel to purchase from the United States as many as 100 GBU-28’s, which are 5,000-pound laser-guided bombs intended to destroy concrete bunkers. The package also provides for selling satellite-guided munitions.

An announcement in 2005 that Israel was eligible to buy the “bunker buster” weapons described the GBU-28 as “a special weapon that was developed for penetrating hardened command centers located deep underground.” The document added, “The Israeli Air Force will use these GBU-28’s on their F-15 aircraft.”

American officials said that once a weapons purchase is approved, it is up to the buyer nation to set up a timetable. But one American official said normal procedures usually do not include rushing deliveries within days of a request. That was done because Israel is a close ally in the midst of hostilities, the official said.

Although Israel had some precision guided bombs in its stockpile when the campaign in Lebanon began, the Israelis may not have taken delivery of all the weapons they were entitled to under the 2005 sale.

Israel said its air force had dropped 23 tons of explosives Wednesday night alone in Beirut, in an effort to penetrate what was believed to be a bunker used by senior Hezbollah officials.

A senior Israeli official said Friday that the attacks to date had degraded Hezbollah’s military strength by roughly half, but that the campaign could go on for two more weeks or longer. “We will stay heavily with the air campaign,” he said. “There’s no time limit. We will end when we achieve our goals.”

The Bush administration announced Thursday a military equipment sale to Saudi Arabia, worth more than $6 billion, a move that may in part have been aimed at deflecting inevitable Arab government anger at the decision to supply Israel with munitions in the event that effort became public.

On Friday, Bush administration officials laid out their plans for the diplomatic strategy that Ms. Rice will pursue. In Rome, the United States will try to hammer out a diplomatic package that will offer Lebanon incentives under the condition that a United Nations resolution, which calls for the disarming of Hezbollah, is implemented.

Diplomats will also try to figure out the details around an eventual international peacekeeping force, and which countries will contribute to it. Germany and Russia have both indicated that they would be willing to contribute forces; Ms. Rice said the United States was unlikely to.

Implicit in the eventual diplomatic package is a cease-fire. But a senior American official said it remained unclear whether, under such a plan, Hezbollah would be asked to retreat from southern Lebanon and commit to a cease-fire, or whether American diplomats might depend on Israel’s continued bombardment to make Hezbollah’s acquiescence irrelevant.

Daniel Ayalon, Israel’s ambassador to Washington, said that Israel would not rule out an international force to police the borders of Lebanon and Syria and to patrol southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah has had a stronghold. But he said that Israel was first determined to take out Hezbollah’s command and control centers and weapons stockpiles.
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a la guerre come a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 23 2006, 16:23:28     :

http://www.newsru.co.il/press/23jul2006/wpost.html

 ñåãîäíÿøíåì íîìåðå ãàçåòû The Washington Post îïóáëèêîâàíà ñòàòüñÿ Ðîáèíà Ðàéòà, êîòîðûé óòâåðæäàåò, ÷òî èçðàèëüñêîå ïðàâèòåëüñòâî ñìèðèòñÿ ñ ñóùåñòâîâàíèåì áåçîðóæíîé "Õèçáàëëû" â ðàìêàõ ïîëèòè÷åñêîé ñèñòåìû Ëèâàíà.

ÑØÀ, Èçðàèëü, ÎÎÍ è Åâðîïåéñêèé ñîþç ñ áîëüøîé íåîõîòîé âûíóæäåíû ïðèçíàòü, ÷òî "Õèçáàëëà" ÿâëÿåòñÿ íåîòúåìëåìîé ÷àñòüþ ëèâàíñêîé ïîëèòè÷åñêîé êàðòû, è ïîëíîñòüþ èçáàâèòüñÿ îò íåå íå óäàñòñÿ. Íåñêîëüêî âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûõ ÷èíîâíèêîâ çàÿâèëè, ÷òî "Õèçáàëëà" ïåðåñòàíåò áûòü ïðîáëåìîé â ñëó÷àå ðàçîðóæåíèÿ åå áîåâîãî êðûëà.

"Åñëè "Õèçáàëëà" ñòàíåò ïðîñòî ïîëèòè÷åñêîé ïàðòèåé, ó íàñ íå áóäåò ê íåé íèêàêèõ ïðåòåíçèé", - çàÿâèë ïîñîë Èçðàèëÿ â ÑØÀ Äàíè Àÿëîí, óòî÷íèâ ïðè ýòîì, ÷òî ïîä ïîëèòè÷åñêîé ïàðòèåé èìååò â âèäó îðãàíèçàöèþ, èíòåãðèðîâàííóþ â ïîëèòè÷åñêóþ ñèñòåìó Ëèâàíà è íå èìåþùóþ ñïîñîáíîñòè ñîâåðøàòü òåðàêòû. Ýòî çàÿâëåíèå îçíà÷àåò, ÷òî èçðàèëüòÿíå ïåðåñìîòðåëè öåëè ñâîåé îïåðàöèè â Ëèâàíå, ïîëàãàåò àâòîð ñòàòüè.

"Åñëè ìû ëèøèì "Õèçáàëëó" ðàêåò, ìû ðåøèì ïðîáëåìó äëÿ Èçðàèëÿ. Òîãäà îíà ïðåâðàòèòñÿ â îáû÷íóþ ïîëèòè÷åñêóþ ñèëó, èìåþùóþ ïîëíîå ïðàâî íà ñóùåñòâîâàíèå", - çàÿâèë âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûé èñòî÷íèê â ÅÑ.

Àìåðèêàíñêèå ÷èíîâíèêè òàêæå ãîâîðÿò, ÷òî õîòÿ "Õèçáàëëà" ôèãóðèðóåò â ñïèñêå òåððîðèñòè÷åñêèõ îðãàíèçàöèé, ïîëíîñòüþ èçáàâèòüñÿ îò îðãàíèçàöèè íåâîçìîæíî, ïîñêîëüêó îíà áûëà èçáðàíà â ëèâàíñêèé ïàðëàìåíò íà âûáîðàõ 1992 ãîäà è ñ òåõ ïîð ÿâëÿåòñÿ ÷àñòüþ ïîëèòè÷åñêîé ñèñòåìû Ëèâàíà.

Â ÑØÀ è Èçðàèëå íàäåþòñÿ, ÷òî àòàêà íà èçðàèëüñêîé ãðàíèöå 12 èþëÿ â äîëãîñðî÷íîé ïåðñïåêòèâå äèñêðåäèòèðóåò "Õèçáàëëó", ðàçâÿçàâøóþ êîíôëèêò, ïðèâåäøèé ê ðàçðóøåíèþ Ëèâàíà. Èçðàèëü, ìèðîâîå ñîîáùåñòâî è àðàáñêèå ñòðàíû âîçëîæèëè ïîëíóþ îòâåòñòâåííîñòü çà ðàçâÿçûâàíèå âîéíû íà ëèäåðà "Õèçáàëëû" øåéõà Õàñàíà Íàñðàëëó.

Âìåñòå ñ òåì, ïî îöåíêàì ýêñïåðòîâ, ïîëíîñòüþ óíè÷òîæèòü "Õèçáàëëó" íå óäàñòñÿ, ïîñêîëüêó åå ïîääåðæèâàåò áîëüøèíñòâî øèèòñêîãî íàñåëåíèÿ Ëèâàíà. "Íåçàâèñèìî îò òîãî, êàêîé óðîí íàíåñåò Èçðàèëü âîåííîìó ïîòåíöèàëó "Õèçáàëëû", îí íè÷åãî íå ñìîæåò ñäåëàòü ñ åå ïîïóëÿðíîñòüþ ñðåäè øèèòîâ", - çàÿâèë â ÷åòâåðã ãåíåðàëüíûé ñåêðåòàðü ÎÎÍ Êîôè Àíàí. Ýòî ïîäòâåðæäàåòñÿ è àìåðèêàíñêèìè ýêñïåðòàìè, óòâåðæäàþùèìè, ÷òî ïîëèòè÷åñêàÿ ïîääåðæêà "Õèçáàëëû" â Ëèâàíå íå òîëüêî íå óìåíüøèòñÿ, íî è, ñêîðåå âñåãî, âûðàñòåò.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 23 2006, 16:34:59     :

http://inopressa.ru/wp/2006/07/21/14:18:11/strife

Íåæåëàíèå ïðåçèäåíòà Áóøà îêàçàòü äàâëåíèå íà Èçðàèëü è ïîòðåáîâàòü ïðåêðàùåíèÿ âîåííîé îïåðàöèè â Ëèâàíå óõîäèò êîðíÿìè â ïðèíöèïèàëüíî èíîå ïðåäñòàâëåíèå î Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå, ÷åì áûëî ó åãî ïðåäøåñòâåííèêîâ.

Êîãäà â ïðîøëîì ðàçðàæàëèñü êîíôëèêòû, ÑØÀ îáû÷íî îòâå÷àëè íåìåäëåííûì è ïóáëè÷íûì ðàóíäîì äèïëîìàòèè, íàïðàâëåííîé íà ïðåêðàùåíèå îãíÿ, â íàäåæäå íå äîïóñòèòü ýñêàëàöèè êðèçèñà. Íî íà ýòîé íåäåëå, äàæå ïåðåä ëèöîì òðåáîâàíèé âñåãî ìèðà, Áåëûé äîì íå ïðîÿâëÿåò íèêàêîé íåòåðïåëèâîñòè â îòíîøåíèè Èçðàèëÿ. ßñíî äàâ ïîíÿòü, ÷òî õîòåëîñü áû îãðàíè÷èòü ïîòåðè ñðåäè ìèðíîãî íàñåëåíèÿ, àäìèíèñòðàöèÿ ïðè ýòîì õî÷åò, ÷òîáû Èçðàèëü íàíåñ "Õèçáàëëàõ" ìàêñèìàëüíî âîçìîæíûé óùåðá.

Êàê óòâåðæäàþò ÷èíîâíèêè Áåëîãî äîìà, ñîâåòíèêè ïðåçèäåíòà è íåçàâèñèìûå ýêñïåðòû ïî Áëèæíåìó Âîñòîêó, Áóø ñ÷èòàåò ñòàòóñ-êâî – ïðèñóòñòâèå â ñóâåðåííîì ãîñóäàðñòâå âîåíèçèðîâàííîé ãðóïïèðîâêè, èìåþùåé ðàêåòû, ñïîñîáíûå íàíåñòè óäàð ïî ñîþçíèêó ÑØÀ, – íåïðèåìëåìûì.

Ïîçèöèÿ ÑØÀ îòðàæàåò òàêæå êðåïíóùóþ óáåæäåííîñòü Áóøà â òîì, ÷òî Èçðàèëü ÿâëÿåòñÿ öåíòðîì áîðüáû ñ òåððîðèçìîì, è ïðåäñòàâëÿåò ñîáîé îòõîä îò òðàäèöèîííîé òî÷êè çðåíèÿ, ÷òî ÑØÀ äîëæíû èãðàòü ðîëü "÷åñòíîãî ïîñðåäíèêà" íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå.

Ïî ìíåíèþ àäìèíèñòðàöèè, íûíåøíèé êîíôëèêò – ýòî íå ïðîñòî êðèçèñ, êîòîðûé íàäî óðåãóëèðîâàòü. Ýòî òàêæå âîçìîæíîñòü çíà÷èòåëüíî óìåíüøèòü îãðîìíóþ óãðîçó â ðåãèîíå, òî÷íî òàê æå, êàê, ñ òî÷êè Áóøà, îí ïîñòóïàåò â Èðàêå. Íàíåñåíèå Èçðàèëåì óùåðáà "Õèçáàëëàõ", ïîëàãàþò â àäìèíèñòðàöèè, çàâåðøèò ïîñòðîåíèå ôóíêöèîíàëüíîé äåìîêðàòèè â Ëèâàíå è ïîøëåò âíÿòíûé ñèãíàë ñèðèéñêèì è èðàíñêèì ïîêðîâèòåëÿì "Õèçáàëëàõ".

"Ïðåçèäåíò ïîëàãàåò, ÷òî, íå óñòðàíèâ êîðåííûå ïðè÷èíû íàñèëèÿ íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå, íåâîçìîæíî óñòàíîâèòü äëèòåëüíûé ìèð, – çàÿâèë ñîâåòíèê Áåëîãî äîìà Äàí Áàðòëåò. – Îí ñêîðáèò î êàæäîì ïîãèáøåì. Íî îí ñ÷èòàåò ýòè òðàãè÷åñêèå ñîáûòèÿ ìîìåíòîì èñòèíû".

Áûâøèé âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûé ÷èíîâíèê àäìèíèñòðàöèè çàÿâèë, ÷òî ðåøèìîñòü Áóøà ëèøü óêðåïëÿåò äàâëåíèå ñî ñòîðîíû ÎÎÍ è åâðîïåéñêèõ ëèäåðîâ, òðåáóþùèõ îò íåãî ïðèçûâîâ ê ïðåêðàùåíèþ îãíÿ. Â÷åðà ãåíñåê ÎÎÍ Êîôè Àííàí ïîòðåáîâàë ïðåêðàòèòü áîåâûå äåéñòâèÿ â Ëèâàíå.

"Îí ñ÷èòàåò, ÷òî âåäåò èãðó ñ äîëãîñðî÷íûìè öåëÿìè, â îòëè÷èå îò òàêòèêîâ, – çàÿâèë áûâøèé ÷èíîâíèê. – Òàêòèêè ñêàçàëè áû: äîáèòüñÿ íåìåäëåííîãî ïðåêðàùåíèÿ îãíÿ; ñíà÷àëà ðåøèòü ãóìàíèòàðíûå ïðîáëåìû. Ïðåçèäåíò ñêàæåò: åñòü âîçìîæíîñòü óíè÷òîæèòü "Õèçáàëëàõ"; ñäåëàåì ýòî, äàæå åñëè ïîòîì ïðèäåòñÿ èìåòü äåëî ñ ñåðüåçíûìè ïîñëåäñòâèÿìè".

Äæåê Ðîçåí, ïðåçèäåíò Àìåðèêàíñêîãî åâðåéñêîãî êîíãðåññà, ñêàçàë, ÷òî çàÿâëåíèÿ îòðàæàþò íåäâóñìûñëåííîå âèäåíèå ñèòóàöèè. "Îí íå äàåò çàìóòèòü ñâîå çðåíèå, – îòìåòèë Ðîçåí, äåìîêðàò, êîòîðîãî âîñõèùàåò áëèæíåâîñòî÷íàÿ ïîëèòèêà Áóøà. – Îí ïîñëåäîâàòåëåí. Èçðàèëü ïðàâ. "Õèçáàëëàõ" íåïðàâà. Òåððîðèñòû äîëæíû áûòü óíè÷òîæåíû, è îí âèäèò, ÷òî Èçðàèëü âåäåò âîéíó ñ òåððîðèçìîì, êàêóþ âåë áû îí ñàì".

Ìíîãèå ýêñïåðòû ïðåäóïðåæäàþò, ÷òî ó òàêîé êîíöåïöèè ìîãóò áûòü îïàñíûå ïîñëåäñòâèÿ. Îíè ñ÷èòàþò, ÷òî Èçðàèëþ è, øèðå ãîâîðÿ, ÑØÀ ãðîçÿò ñåðüåçíûå ïðîáëåìû, åñëè ïðîäîëæàòñÿ áîìáàðäèðîâêè, ïðèâîäÿùèå ê îãðîìíûì æåðòâàì.  èñòîðèè Áëèæíåãî Âîñòîêà äîñòàòî÷íî ïðèìåðîâ òîãî, ÷òî âîåííàÿ ñèëà èìååò ïðåäåëû, ãîâîðÿò îíè, îòìå÷àÿ, ÷òî èçðàèëüñêàÿ âîéíà â Ëèâàíå â íà÷àëå 1980-õ ãîäîâ ïîìîãëà ñîçäàòü ïðåäïîñûëêè äëÿ ïîÿâëåíèÿ "Õèçáàëëàõ".

Îíè ïðåäóïðåäèëè, ÷òî âîåííàÿ îïåðàöèÿ íàñòðàèâàåò îáùåñòâåííîå ìíåíèå Ëèâàíà ïðîòèâ Èçðàèëÿ, à íå ïðîòèâ "Õèçáàëëàõ", ñïðîâîöèðîâàâøåé íàñèëèå. Àòàêè òàêæå çàòðóäíÿþò ïðàâèòåëüñòâó Ëèâàíà âîçâðàùåíèå ê íîðìàëüíîé æèçíè. È òî, ÷òî ñåãîäíÿ êàæåòñÿ ïîëèòè÷åñêîé ïîáåäîé ïðåçèäåíòà – â÷åðà ïàëàòà ïðåäñòàâèòåëåé åäèíîãëàñíî îäîáðèëà ðåçîëþöèþ â ïîääåðæêó Èçðàèëÿ, – ìîæåò îêàçàòüñÿ áðåìåíåì, åñëè âîéíà ðàñïðîñòðàíèòñÿ íà Ñèðèþ èëè ÑØÀ äîáàâÿò Ëèâàí ê ñïèñêó ñòðàí, ãäå ðàçâåðíóòû àìåðèêàíñêèå âîéñêà, â êîòîðîì óæå çíà÷àòñÿ Èðàê è Àôãàíèñòàí.

"Äîëæåí áûòü ñèãíàë, ÷òî àäìèíèñòðàöèÿ Áóøà ãîòîâà ÷òî-òî ïðåäïðèíÿòü, – çàÿâèë Ëàððè Ãàðáåð, èñïîëíèòåëüíûé äèðåêòîð àìåðèêàíñêîé îðãàíèçàöèè New Israel Fund, êîòîðàÿ áîðåòñÿ çà ïðàâà ÷åëîâåêà è ñïðàâåäëèâîñòü â Èçðàèëå. – Ïîçèöèÿ ñòîðîííåãî íàáëþäàòåëÿ ïîäðûâàåò äîâåðèå ê íàì. Åñòü îïàñíîñòü, ÷òî ìû óâèäèì ïðîñòîå ñëåäîâàíèå óêàçàíèÿì Èçðàèëÿ".

Ðîáåðò Ìîëëè, êîòîðûé çàíèìàëñÿ Áëèæíèì Âîñòîêîì â Ñîâåòå íàöèîíàëüíîé áåçîïàñíîñòè ïðè ïðåçèäåíòå Êëèíòîíå, ñîìíåâàåòñÿ, ÷òî íûíåøíèé êóðñ ïðèíåñåò ïëîäû Èçðàèëþ èëè ÑØÀ. "Îí ìîæåò íå ïðèâåñòè ê óñïåõó, "Õèçáàëëàõ" ìîæåò íå óðîíèòü ñâîå äîñòîèíñòâî è ñîõðàíèòü â ñâîåì ðàñïîðÿæåíèè ïîëèòè÷åñêèé è âîåííûé àðñåíàë. Êàêîâ áóäåò âûèãðûø?"

Òå, êòî çíàåò Áóøà, ãîâîðÿò, ÷òî åãî âèäåíèå êîíôëèêòà ñôîðìèðîâàëè íåñêîëüêî ñîáûòèé, ïðåæäå âñåãî òåðàêòû 11 ñåíòÿáðÿ 2001 ãîäà, ñäåëàâøèå áîðüáó ñ òåððîðèçìîì ãëàâíîé çàäà÷åé åãî ïðåçèäåíòñòâà. Äðóãèì òàêèì ñîáûòèåì áûë ïîëåò íà âåðòîëåòå íàä Çàïàäíûì áåðåãîì ñ Àðèýëåì Øàðîíîì â 1998 ãîäó, êîãäà Áóø áûë ãóáåðíàòîðîì Òåõàñà. Ýòîò ïîëåò, ãîâîðèë îí âïîñëåäñòâèè, ïðîäåìîíñòðèðîâàë åìó óÿçâèìîñòü Èçðàèëÿ. Èçðàèëü ïîääåðæèâàþò ìíîãèå åâàíãåëèñòû, ñîñòàâëÿþùèå çíà÷èòåëüíóþ ÷àñòü ïîëèòè÷åñêîé áàçû ïðåçèäåíòà.

Áóø è åãî êîìàíäà ñêåïòè÷íî îòíîñÿòñÿ ê áëèæíåâîñòî÷íîé ïîëèòèêå ïðåäûäóùåé àäìèíèñòðàöèè è ê òîìó, ÷òî îíè ñ÷èòàþò èçëèøíåé ïðèâåðæåííîñòüþ ìèðíîìó ïðîöåññó, ê êîòîðîìó îäèí èç ãëàâíûõ åãî ó÷àñòíèêîâ, ïàëåñòèíñêèé ëèäåð ßñèð Àðàôàò, ïðèêëàäûâàë íå ñëèøêîì áîëüøèå óñèëèÿ. Îáúÿñíÿÿ íåæåëàíèå òðåáîâàòü áûñòðîãî ïðåêðàùåíèÿ îãíÿ, âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûé ÷èíîâíèê àäìèíèñòðàöèè ñêàçàë, ÷òî ïðåæäåâðåìåííîå èñïîëüçîâàíèå äèïëîìàòèè ìîæåò äàòü "Õèçáàëëàõ" âîçìîæíîñòü ãîâîðèòü ñ ïîçèöèè ñèëû.

"Ìû íå õîòèì ïåðåìèðèÿ, êîòîðîå ïðèâåäåò ê íîâîìó êîíôëèêòó", çàÿâèë îí, äîáàâèâ, ÷òî, êîãäà ïðèäåò âðåìÿ, "âû óâèäèòå äîñòàòî÷íî äèïëîìàòèè".

Ôðåä Çàéäìàí, ïðåäïðèíèìàòåëü èç Òåõàñà, êîòîðûé ñïåöèàëèçèðóåòñÿ íà ðèñêîâàííûõ èíâåñòèöèÿõ, ïðîÿâëÿåò àêòèâíîñòü â åâðåéñêèõ äåëàõ è ìíîãî ëåò áëèçîê ê ïðåçèäåíòó, íàçâàë íûíåøíèé êðèçèñ ïîêàçàòåëåì ãëóáèíû ïðåçèäåíòñêîé ïîääåðæêè Èçðàèëÿ. "Îí íå ïîääàñòñÿ ìåæäóíàðîäíîìó äàâëåíèþ è íå îêàæåò äàâëåíèÿ íà Èçðàèëü. ß íèêîãäà íå âèäåë ÷åëîâåêà, íàñòîëüêî ïðèâåðæåííîãî Èçðàèëþ".
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 24 2006, 17:35:57     :

http://www.newsru.co.il/press/24jul2006/indik.html

Ìàðòèí Èíäèê – ïîñîë â Èçðàèëå ïðè àäìèíèñòðàöèè Êëèíòîíà, äèðåêòîð Öåíòðà Ñàáàíà ïî áëèæíåâîñòî÷íîé ïîëèòèêå â Èíñòèòóòå Áðóêèíãñà.

Ãîññåêðåòàðü ÑØÀ Êîíäîëèçà Ðàéñ íà ýòîé íåäåëå ïîñåòèò Áëèæíèé Âîñòîê, ÷òî ïîðîæäàåò íàäåæäó íà óñïåõ àìåðèêàíñêîé èíèöèàòèâû ïîëîæèòü êîíåö ëèâàíñêî-èçðàèëüñêîìó êîíôëèêòó.

Íà ïîâåðõíîñòè ìîæíî îáíàðóæèòü ôîðìèðîâàíèå ðåäêîñòíîãî êîíñåíñóñà îòíîñèòåëüíî íåîáõîäèìûõ ýëåìåíòîâ ýòîé èíèöèàòèâû: ïîëíîå ïðåêðàùåíèå îãíÿ; ðàñøèðåíèå âëèÿíèÿ ëèâàíñêîãî ïðàâèòåëüñòâà íà þæíûé Ëèâàí; ýôôåêòèâíàÿ ïîìîùü ìåæäóíàðîäíûõ ñèë ëèâàíñêîé àðìèè â ñîõðàíåíèè ìèðà íà ãðàíèöàõ Èçðàèëåì è ïðåäîòâðàùåíèÿ âîîðóæåíèÿ äâèæåíèÿ "Õèçáàëëà"; âîçâðàùåíèå ê èçðàèëüñêî-ëèâàíñêîìó ñîãëàøåíèþ î ïåðåìèðèè îò 1949 ãîäà ñ ñîâìåñòíûì êîìèòåòîì ïî óñòàíîâëåíèþ ãðàíèö äëÿ ðàçðåøåíèÿ æèâîòðåïåùóùèõ òåððèòîðèàëüíûõ äèñïóòîâ; ïåðåãîâîðû îá îáìåíå ïëåííûìè ìåæäó ïðàâèòåëüñòâàìè Èçðàèëÿ è Ëèâàíà; ìåæäóíàðîäíûé ôîíä äëÿ ðåêîíñòðóêöèè Ëèâàíà; è ïðèìåíåíèå ðåçîëþöèè ÑÁ ÎÎÍ 1559 ïî ðàçîðóæåíèþ è ðàñôîðìèðîâàíèþ âñåõ áîåâûõ îòðÿäîâ.

Áîëüøèíñòâî ýòèõ ýëåìåíòîâ áûëè î÷åð÷åíû â êîììþíèêå "áîëüøîé âîñüìåðêè" è â çàÿâëåíèÿõ ïðåìüåð-ìèíèñòðîâ Ëèâàíà è Èçðàèëÿ. Ïîòðåáîâàëîñü áû íå òàê ìíîãî äèïëîìàòè÷åñêèõ óñèëèé ÑØÀ, ÷òîáû îáåñïå÷èòü ñîãëàøåíèå ìåæäó ýòèìè ñòîðîíàìè. Îäíàêî â ýòîé ñõåìå íåäîñòàåò îäíîé äåòàëè – êàê çàñòàâèòü ñîãëàñèòüñÿ "Õèçáàëëó" – ïåðâîïðè÷èíó ýòîãî êðèçèñà. "Õèçáàëëà" â êðîâè, íî íå íà êîëåíÿõ. Çà÷åì èì ñîãëàøàòüñÿ íà ïðåêðàùåíèå ñâîåãî âëàäû÷åñòâà â þæíîì Ëèâàíå ñ ïåðñïåêòèâîé ïîñëåäóþùåãî ðàçîðóæåíèÿ?

Ïðåçèäåíò Äæîðäæ Áóø è Êîíäîëèçà Ðàéñ ïîòðåáîâàëè, ÷òîáû Ñèðèÿ ïðèçâàëà "Õèçáàëëó" – ñâîåãî ñîþçíèêà è ïîëó÷àòåëÿ ïîääåðæêè â âèäå îáåñïå÷åíèÿ – ê ïîðÿäêó. Êîãäà ñèðèéñêèå âîéñêà çàíÿëè Ëèâàí, ïðåäûäóùèå ãîññåêðåòàðè ÑØÀ îòïðàâëÿëèñü â Äàìàñê, ÷òîáû óáåäèòü èõ ñäåðæèâàòü äåÿòåëüíîñòü "Õèçáàëëû". Îäíàêî äâà ãîäà íàçàä, êîãäà íà óëèöû Áåéðóòà âûøëè ìèëëèîíû ëèâàíöåâ, òðåáóÿ âûâîäà ñèðèéñêèõ âîéñê, àäìèíèñòðàöèÿ Áóøà âîñïîëüçîâàëàñü ýòèì ìîìåíòîì, ÷òîáû íàäàâèòü íà Ñèðèþ, âûíóäèâ óéòè èç Ëèâàíà. Òåïåðü Áóø íå ìîæåò ïðåäàòü ðåâîëþöèþ "ëèâàíñêîãî êåäðà", ñíîâà ïðèãëàøàÿ Äàìàñê âòîðãíóòüñÿ â Ëèâàí. Èìåííî ïîýòîìó â ïðîãðàììå âèçèòà Ðàéñ íà ýòîé íåäåëå Äàìàñê îòñóòñòâóåò.

À ìîæåò áûòü ïîïðîñèòü Èðàí ñûãðàòü â ýòîì ðîëü? "Õèçáàëëà" ÿâëÿåòñÿ äî÷åðíåé îðãàíèçàöèåé èðàíñêîãî ðåæèìà, êîòîðûé åå ôèíàíñèðóåò, âîîðóæàåò è îáó÷àåò. Îäíàêî Èðàí íå ñîãëàñèòñÿ íà ðàñôîðìèðîâàíèå îðãàíèçàöèè "Õèçáàëëà", ñëóæàùåé åìó òî÷êîé îïîðû â ñåðäöå Áëèæíåãî Âîñòîêà. Îíà áûëà ñôîðìèðîâàíà êàê ñòðàòåãè÷åñêîå ñðåäñòâî óñòðàøåíèÿ ïðîòèâ âîåííûõ óäàðîâ Èçðàèëÿ è ÑØÀ ïî ÿäåðíîé ïðîãðàììå Òåãåðàíà. Ïî÷åìó äîëæåí Èðàí îòêàçûâàòüñÿ îò ýòîãî, åñëè åìó åùå íè ðàçó íå ïðèøëîñü ðàñïëà÷èâàòüñÿ çà ðåãóëÿðíîå íåñîáëþäåíèå ìåæäóíàðîäíûõ íîðì è îáÿçàòåëüñòâ ïî äîãîâîðàì? Îí ñîãëàñèëñÿ áû òîëüêî â ñëó÷àå, åñëè áû ñ÷åë ñôåðó âëèÿíèÿ â Ëèâàíå ðàâíîé òîé, êîòîðóþ îí îáåñïå÷èë ñåáå â Èðàêå. Ýòî, î÷åâèäíî, áåñïåðñïåêòèâíàÿ èäåÿ.

Èñïîëüçîâàíèå Èçðàèëåì âîåííîé ñèëû äëÿ ñíèæåíèÿ ðàêåòíîãî ïîòåíöèàëà äâèæåíèÿ "Õèçáàëëàõ" è ñîêðàùåíèÿ èõ îïåðàöèé â þæíîì Ëèâàíå ïðèäàåò îïðåäåëåííóþ çíà÷èìîñòü äèïëîìàòèè Ðàéñ. Èìåííî ïîýòîìó Áóø âîçäåðæèâàåòñÿ îò òðåáîâàíèé î ïðåêðàùåíèè îãíÿ. Âïðî÷åì, ìàëîâåðîÿòíî, ÷òî ïîïûòêè Èçðàèëÿ ðàçðóøèòü èíôðàñòðóêòóðó "Õèçáàëëû" ìîãóò ñàìè ïî ñåáå ñêëîíèòü òåððîðèñòè÷åñêóþ îðãàíèçàöèþ ê ïîä÷èíåíèþ ìåæäóíàðîäíûì òðåáîâàíèÿì. Äåéñòâèòåëüíî, ðàñïðåäåëÿÿ ñâîþ èíôðàñòðóêòóðó ñðåäè ãðàæäàíñêîãî íàñåëåíèÿ, "Õèçáàëëà" ïðîèçâîäèò öèíè÷íûé ðàñ÷åò íà òî, ÷òî ìèðîâîå ñîîáùåñòâî, íå æåëàÿ ìèðèòüñÿ ñ ãèáåëüþ ìèðíûõ æèòåëåé ïî ïðè÷èíå âîåííûõ äåéñòâèé Èçðàèëÿ, îáåðíåòñÿ ïðîòèâ Èçðàèëÿ è ïîòðåáóåò îò íåãî áåçóñëîâíîãî ïðåêðàùåíèÿ îãíÿ. Ýòî óæå ïðîèñõîäèò â Ñîâåòå áåçîïàñíîñòè ÎÎÍ, ãäå áëîêèðîâàíèå ñî ñòîðîíû ÑØÀ â êîíå÷íîì ñ÷åòå ñòàíåò íåñîñòîÿòåëüíûì.

Ðàéñ íóæíà äèïëîìàòè÷åñêàÿ ñòðàòåãèÿ ïðåîäîëåíèÿ ýòèõ ïðåïÿòñòâèé. Ëó÷øèé âûõîä äëÿ íåå – ýòî äîñòè÷ü ñîãëàøåíèÿ â Ñîâåòå áåçîïàñíîñòè î ïàêåòå èíèöèàòèâ ïî ïðåêðàùåíèþ îãíÿ. Îäíàêî îñóùåñòâëåíèå ýòîé ïðîãðàììû äîëæíî çàâèñåòü îò ñîãëàñèÿ äâèæåíèÿ "Õèçáàëëà" ïðèçíàòü âëàñòü ëèâàíñêîãî ïðàâèòåëüñòâà â þæíîì Ëèâàíå è ñîãëàñèå íà äîëãîâðåìåííûé âûâîä èõ âîéñê ñ ýòîé òåððèòîðèè, à òàêæå ïåðâûå øàãè "Õèçáàëëû" ê ðàçîðóæåíèþ. Çàòåì Ðàéñ äîëæíà îòïðàâèòüñÿ â Áåéðóò âìåñòå ñî ñâîèìè êîëëåãàìè ïî "áëèæíåâîñòî÷íîìó êâàðòåòó" è ìèíèñòðàìè èíîñòðàííûõ äåë Åãèïòà è Ñàóäîâñêîé Àðàâèè (àðàáñêèå ïîêðîâèòåëè Ëèâàíà), è íàñòîÿòü íà òîì, ÷òîáû ëèâàíñêîå ïðàâèòåëüñòâî ïðèíÿëî ïàêåò èíèöèàòèâ î ïðåêðàùåíèè îãíÿ.

Ýòî ïîçâîëèëî áû ïðåìüåð-ìèíèñòðó Ëèâàíà Ôóàäó Ñèíèîðå ñêàçàòü "Õèçáàëëå": "Ãîñïîäà, ìû áîëüøå íå íóæäàåìñÿ â âàøåì "ñîïðîòèâëåíèè". Ëèâàíñêèé íàðîä ñëèøêîì äîðîãî çà íåãî ðàñïëà÷èâàåòñÿ. Ìåæäóíàðîäíîå ñîîáùåñòâî òðåáóåò çàêîí÷èòü âîéíó. Ìû ìîæåì ïîëó÷èòü ñîãëàñèÿ Èçðàèëÿ íà ïðåêðàùåíèå îãíÿ, ðåøèòü âîïðîñ ïëåííûõ è Õàð-Äîâ è ïîëó÷èòü äåíüãè íà âîññòàíîâëåíèå Ëèâàíà, íî òîëüêî åñëè âû ïðåêðàòèòå îïåðàöèè, âûâåäåòå ñâîè ñèëû ñ þãà è ïîä÷èíèòå èõ êîíòðîëþ ëèâàíñêîé àðìèè".

Îäíîâðåìåííî ñ ýòèì àäìèíèñòðàöèÿ Áóøà ñî âñåìè òåìè ñîþçíèêàìè, êàêèõ îíà òîëüêî ñìîæåò îáåñïå÷èòü, äîëæíà ïîäàòü Èðàíó è Ñèðèè îò÷åòëèâûé ñèãíàë: åñëè îíè íå ïðåêðàòÿò ïîääåðæèâàòü "Õèçáàëëó" è èõ âîåííûå îïåðàöèè, òî îíè áóäóò ïðèçíàíû îòâåòñòâåííûìè çà ïðîèñõîäÿùåå. Ê ñîæàëåíèþ, òîëüêî êîãäà Èðàí è Ñèðèÿ ïî÷óâñòâóþò, ÷òî ìîãóò ñãîðåòü íà îãíå, êîòîðûé îíè ïîìîãëè ðàçæå÷ü, îíè íà÷íóò ïûòàòüñÿ ïîãàñèòü ïëàìÿ.  òàêîì êîíòåêñòå, åñëè ÑÁ ÎÎÍ ñíîâà ðàññìîòðèò ñàíêöèè ïðîòèâ Èðàíà â ñâÿçè ñ åãî ÿäåðíîé ïðîãðàììîé, åãî ïîääåðæêà "Õèçáàëëû" äîëæíà áûòü äîáàâëåíà ê ñïèñêó ïðåãðåøåíèé ýòîãî ïðîáëåìíîãî ãîñóäàðñòâà.

Äèïëîìàòè÷åñêàÿ èíèöèàòèâà Êîíäîëèçû Ðàéñ äîëæíà áûòü íàïðàâëåíà íà óñèëåíèå ëèâàíñêîãî ïðàâèòåëüñòâà è èçîëÿöèþ äâèæåíèÿ "Õèçáàëëà" ïðè ÿñíîì ïîíèìàíèè, ÷òî èìåííî îíî îòâåòñòâåííî çà ïðîäîëæåíèå êîíôëèêòà. Åñëè æå "Õèçáàëëà" îòêàæåòñÿ âûâåñòè âîéñêà è ñîãëàñèòüñÿ íà ðàçîðóæåíèå, íå ñòîèò îæèäàòü, ÷òî ÑØÀ áóäóò ñäåðæèâàòü óñèëèÿ Èçðàèëÿ ïî óíè÷òîæåíèþ âîåííîé ìîùè "Õèçáàëëû" ñèëîé.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 24 2006, 17:39:08     :

http://www.newsru.co.il/mideast/24jul2006/iranstr.html

Ãàçåòà New-York Times îïóáëèêîâàëà â÷åðà ñòàòüþ ñâîåãî êîððåñïîíäåíòà â Òåãåðàíå, â êîòîðîé ðàññêàçûâàåò î ìíåíèè èðàíñêîé óëèöû ïî ïîâîäó âîéíû â Ëèâàíå.

Íà óëèöàõ Òåãåðàíà ìîæíî ïî÷óâñòâîâàòü ãíåâ ïî ïîâîäó òîãî, ÷òî ïðîèñõîäèò â ýòè äíè â Ëèâàíå. Îäíàêî ïðè÷èíà ýòîãî ãíåâà – îòíþäü íå òîëüêî èçðàèëüñêèå áîìáû è ðàêåòû.

"Ðàçóìååòñÿ, ÿ ðàññåðæåí", - ãîâîðèò Õàìèä Àêáàðè, ðàáîòàþùèé ðàññûëüíûì – "Íàøè íàëîãè èäóò ïàëåñòèíöàì è "Õèçáàëëå".

Èðàí óæå äâà äåñÿòêà ëåò ÿâëÿåòñÿ ïàòðîíîì øèèòñêîé "Õèçáàëëû", ïîìîãàÿ åé äåíüãàìè, îðóæèåì è èíñòðóêòîðàìè. Îäíàêî òåïåðü, êîãäà "Õèçáàëëà" âñòóïèëà â îòêðûòóþ âîéíó ñ Èçðàèëåì, èðàíñêèå âëàñòè âñÿ÷åñêè íàñòàèâàþò íà ñâîåé íåïðè÷àñòíîñòè ê êîíôëèêòó.

Îò÷àñòè ýòî îáúÿñíÿåòñÿ íåæåëàíèåì îôèöèàëüíîãî Èðàíà äàòü ÑØÀ, Åâðîïåéñêîìó Ñîþçó åùå îäíó ïðè÷èíó äëÿ ââåäåíèÿ ñàíêöèé. Îäíàêî åñòü è äðóãàÿ ïðè÷èíà – èðàíñêîå ðóêîâîäñòâî î÷åíü òî÷íî ÷óâñòâóåò íàñòðîåíèå óëèöû. Âî âñåõ èíòåðâüþ, ïóáëèêóåìûõ Èðàíñêîé ïðåññîé, çâó÷èò îäèí è òîò æå ðåôðåí: "Èðàí äîëæåí çàíèìàòüñÿ ñâîèìè ïðîáëåìàìè, íå âëåçàÿ â ÷óæèå äðàêè".

" ïåðâóþ î÷åðåäü ìû äîëæíû ñïàñàòü ñâîé äîì, è òîëüêî ïîòîì ìå÷åòü", - òàê èíîñêàçàòåëüíî âûðàæàåòñÿ Àëè Ðåçà Ìîðàäè, 35-ëåòíèé õóäîæíèê, ðàáîòàþùèé íà îêðàèíå ãîðîäà, – "Áîëüøèíñòâî ëþäåé äóìàþò òàê. Ïðàâèòåëüñòâî äîëæíî äóìàòü î ñâîèõ ãðàæäàíàõ, à ëèøü ïîòîì - î ëèâàíöàõ". Âòîðèò åìó è 33-ëåòíèé Ðåçà Ìóõàììàäè, âëàäåëåö íåáîëüøîé áàêàëåè "Ïóñòü îíè äåðóòñÿ, ïîêà íå óñòàíóò. Àðàáñêèå ñòðàíû íå ïîääåðæèâàþò "Õèçáàëëó", òàê ïî÷åìó ìîÿ ñòðàíà äîëæíà îòäàâàòü ìîè äåíüãè àðàáàì?", - ãîâîðèò îí

 ïîñëåäíèå ãîäû, ïîñëå ñâåðæåíèÿ ñóííèòñêîãî ïðàâèòåëüñòâà â ñîñåäíåì Èðàêå è äâèæåíèÿ "Òàëèáàí" â Àôãàíèñòàíå, øèèòñêèé Èðàí óñèëèë ñâîå ïðèñóòñòâèå â ðåãèîíå. Ðåçêàÿ àíòèàìåðèêàíñêàÿ è àíòèèçðàèëüñêàÿ ðèòîðèêà ïðåçèäåíòà Èðàíà Ìàõìóäà Àõìàäèíåäæàäà ïðèíåñëà åìó ñèìïàòèè ìíîãèõ àðàáîâ.

Îäíàêî â ñàìîì Èðàíå ìîæíî óâèäåòü ñîâñåì äðóãóþ êàðòèíó. Õîòÿ Èðàí îáëàäàåò âòîðûì ïî ðàçìåðàì çàïàñîì íåôòè íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå, îí íå ìîæåò ïðîèçâåñòè äîñòàòî÷íî áåíçèíà äëÿ ñâîèõ íóæä, ÷òî ïðèâîäèò ê ïîâûøåíèþ öåí. Ëþäè íà óëèöàõ æàëóþòñÿ íà áîëüøóþ áåçðàáîòèöó è ñèëüíóþ èíôëÿöèþ.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 24 2006, 17:42:00     :

http://www.newsru.co.il/press/24jul2006/newsw.html

Ìàéêë Õèðø

Êîìàíäà Áóøà íå âèäåëà, ÷òî ãðÿäåò. Âîçìîæíî, ñëó÷èëîñü òàê, ÷òî îäíîâðåìåííî èçâåðãëîñü åùå ìíîãî âóëêàíîâ. Èðàê êàòèëñÿ ê ãðàæäàíñêîé âîéíå, Èðàí íàãëåë ñ êàæäûì äíåì, ñåâåðîêîðåéñêèå ðàêåòû âñêîëûõíóëè Âîñòî÷íóþ Àçèþ. Ïðåçèäåíò ìåæäó òåì áûë çàíÿò ïðåäïîëîæèòåëüíî êîíôëèêòíûì ñàììèòîì G8 ó ðîññèéñêîãî ïðåçèäåíòà Âëàäèìèðà Ïóòèíà.

Äà, äâà ãëàâíûõ àìåðèêàíñêèõ ïîñëàííèêà íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå – Äýâèä Óýë÷ è Ýëèîò Àáðàìñ – íàõîäèëèñü â ðåãèîíå, êîãäà íà÷àëèñü âîåííûå äåéñòâèÿ. Íî ëèâàíñêèå êîíòàêòû çàâåðèëè èõ, ÷òî ëèäåð "Õèçáàëëû" Õàñàí Íàñðàëëà íå ïëàíèðóåò "ïîäîãðåâàòü ñèòóàöèþ", â òî âðåìÿ êàê "Õàìàñ" è Èçðàèëü âîþþò èç-çà ïîõèùåííîãî èçðàèëüñêîãî åôðåéòîðà, ñîîáùèë àìåðèêàíñêèé äèïëîìàòè÷åñêèé èñòî÷íèê. "Ó íàñ áûëî øåñòü ñ ïîëîâèíîé ëåò åñëè íå ñïîêîéñòâèÿ, òî ñòàáèëüíîãî ñäåðæèâàíèÿ ìåæäó Èçðàèëåì è "Õèçáàëëîé", – çàÿâèë îí Newsweek. – ß íèêàê ýòîãî íå îæèäàë".

Åñëè òàê, òî íàñ – âìåñòå ñ ïðåçèäåíòîì – ââåëè â çàáëóæäåíèå, è ýòî îäíà èç ïðè÷èí òîãî, ïî÷åìó Èðàí è Ñèðèÿ áûñòðî ïîïàëè íà ïîäîçðåíèå êàê ïîäñòðåêàòåëè. Ïî ïóòè â Ðîññèþ Áóø è ãîññåêðåòàðü Êîíäîëèçà Ðàéñ áûñòðî ïðåäïðèíÿëè ìåðû, ÷òîáû îñòàíîâèòü âîéíó, õîòÿ è ïîääåðæàëè Èçðàèëü â åãî ïðàâå âåñòè íàñòóïëåíèå íà "Õèçáàëëó". Ñ áîðòà ñâîåãî ñàìîëåòà ïðåçèäåíò ïîçâîíèë àðàáñêèì ñîþçíèêàì, ïðåæäå âñåãî – â Åãèïåò è Èîðäàíèþ, ïîä÷åðêèâàÿ, ÷òî íàðóøåíèå "Õèçáàëëû" ãðàíèöû èäåò âðàçðåç ñ ìåæäóíàðîäíûì ïðàâîì. Áóø õîòåë ïîñòàâèòü àðàáñêèõ ëèäåðîâ â èçâåñòíîñòü, ÷òî îí ïðîñèò Èçðàèëü èçáåãàòü äåéñòâèé, ñïîñîáíûõ ïðèâåñòè ê ñâåðæåíèþ ïðàâèòåëüñòâà Ëèâàíà è âîçâðàùåíèþ ñòðàíû ïîä êîíòðîëü Ñèðèè. Íî çà ýòî îí ïðîñèë èõ îêàçàòü äàâëåíèå íà "Õèçáàëëó" íà ÷ðåçâû÷àéíîì ñàììèòå Ëèãè àðàáñêèõ ãîñóäàðñòâ â Êàèðå.  ýêñêëþçèâíîì èíòåðâüþ Áóø ñîîáùèë Newsweek, ÷òî ñêàçàë àðàáñêèì ëèäåðàì: "Äàâàéòå îáåñïå÷èì, ÷òîáû ñàììèò íå ïðåâðàòèëñÿ â îáû÷íîå îñóæäåíèå Èçðàèëÿ, òàê êàê â ýòîì ñëó÷àå óõîäèò íà âòîðîé ïëàí ãëàâíûé âèíîâíèê" – "Õèçáàëëà" è ÕÀÌÀÑ.

Ê óäîâîëüñòâèþ Áóøà, ñîþçíèêè åãî ïîääåðæàëè. Ñàóäîâñêàÿ Àðàâèÿ âûñòóïèëà ñ çàÿâëåíèåì, íåäâóñìûñëåííî âîçëàãàþùèì íà "Õèçáàëëó" âèíó çà êîíôëèêò, ïîä÷åðêíóâ, ÷òî "íåîáõîäèìî ïðîâåñòè ãðàíü ìåæäó çàêîííûì ñîïðîòèâëåíèåì îêêóïàöèè è áåçîòâåòñòâåííûì àâàíòþðèçìîì íåêîòîðûõ ýëåìåíòîâ â ãîñóäàðñòâå". Ïðåçèäåíò Åãèïòà Õóñíè Ìóáàðàê è êîðîëü Èîðäàíèè Àáäàëëà II â ñîâìåñòíîì çàÿâëåíèè, ñäåëàííîì â Êàèðå, ïîâòîðèëè ýòó òî÷êó çðåíèÿ.

Íî â äîëãîñðî÷íîé ïåðñïåêòèâå èìåííî ïðèçûâû, ñ êîòîðûìè Áóø íå âûñòóïèë èëè íå ñìîã âûñòóïèòü, âîçìîæíî, îïðåäåëÿò ðàçëè÷èå ïîäõîäîâ ê îáóçäàíèþ î÷åðåäíîãî áëèæíåâîñòî÷íîãî êîíôëèêòà.  ðàìêàõ ñâîåé ïîëèòèêè èçîëÿöèè îðãàíèçàöèé è ñòðàí, ïîääåðæèâàþùèõ òåððîðèçì, àäìèíèñòðàöèÿ Áóøà íå èìååò ñâÿçåé ñ äðóãèìè ó÷àñòíèêàìè âîéíû èëè ñòîÿùèìè çà íèìè ãîñóäàðñòâàìè. Ýòî ïîäðàçóìåâàåò îòñóòñòâèå äèàëîãà, äàæå ïî òàéíûì êàíàëàì, ñ Èðàíîì, Ñèðèåé, "Õèçáàëëîé" è ÕÀÌÀÑ. Âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûå àìåðèêàíñêèå èñòî÷íèêè çàÿâèëè òàêæå, ÷òî Áóø è Ðàéñ â íàñòîÿùåå âðåìÿ íå ñîáèðàþòñÿ íàçíà÷àòü ïîñëàííèêà. (Óýë÷ ïîñëå ðÿäà âñòðå÷ ïðåäñòàâèòåëÿìè Èçðàèëÿ è ïàëåñòèíñêèì ïðåçèäåíòîì Ìàõìóäîì Àááàñîì â âûõîäíûå, êàê è áûëî çàïëàíèðîâàíî, óåõàë â Ëèâèþ.)  ðåçóëüòàòå ïðåçèäåíò äîëæåí ñìîòðåòü è íàäåÿòüñÿ, â òî âðåìÿ êàê åãî áëèæíåâîñòî÷íûé êóðñ – ïîñòàâëåííàÿ èì öåëü òðàíñôîðìàöèè ðåãèîíà ÿâëÿåòñÿ ïåðâîïðè÷èíîé èñëàìñêîãî òåððîðèçìà – îêàçàëñÿ â îïàñíîñòè.  åãî ñòðàòåãèþ âõîäèò òàêæå èçîëÿöèÿ Èðàíà ïðè ðîñòå íàïðÿæåííîñòè ìåæäó Âàøèíãòîíîì è Åâðîïîé èç-çà äåéñòâèé Èçðàèëÿ. " ïðîøëîì, åñëè ãäå-òî íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå ñëó÷àëñÿ êðèçèñ, ÑØÀ íåìåäëåííî îòïðàâëÿëè ïîñëàííèêà âûñîêîãî óðîâíÿ, – çàÿâèë Èìàä Ìóñòàôà, ïîñîë Ñèðèè â Âàøèíãòîíå, ïîäòâåðäèâ, ÷òî ïðàâèòåëüñòâî ÑØÀ ñâÿçàëîñü ñ åãî ïðàâèòåëüñòâîì ëèøü ïî ïîâîäó âèç äëÿ àìåðèêàíöåâ, áåãóùèõ èç Ëèâàíà â Äàìàñê. –  ýòîò ðàç àìåðèêàíöû òîëüêî îáâèíÿþò ñòîðîíû, âîçëàãàþò âèíó. È áîëüøå íè÷åãî".

Ýòî íå ñîâñåì òàê. Àìåðèêàíñêèå äèïëîìàòû ïðèëàãàþò óñèëèÿ, ÷òîáû óäåðæàòü èçðàèëüòÿí îò óáèéñòâà ìèðíûõ ëèâàíöåâ, íåñìîòðÿ íà ïðèçûâû èçðàèëüñêèõ ñòîðîííèêîâ æåñòêîé ëèíèè ê óäàðàì "áèáëåéñêîé" ñóðîâîñòè. "Èçðàèëüòÿíå íàìåðåíû ïîòðåïàòü "Õèçáàëëó", ÷òî, ïîæàëóé, õîðîøî, – çàÿâèë àìåðèêàíñêèé äèïëîìàòè÷åñêèé èñòî÷íèê. – Íå äóìàþ, ÷òî èõ íàäî íåìåäëåííî ïðèçâàòü ê ïðåêðàùåíèþ îãíÿ. Íî ìû ãîâîðèì, ÷òî óäàðû íå äîëæíû áûòü ðàçíóçäàííûìè". Ïî ñóùåñòâó, Áóø ïðîñèò Èçðàèëü ñîçäàòü ñîáñòâåííóþ âåðñèþ "äîêòðèíû Áóøà", â öåíòðå êîòîðîé ñòîÿò ñòðàíû, îòâå÷àþùèå çà òåððîðèñòè÷åñêèå ãðóïïèðîâêè. " äàííîì ñëó÷àå ìû íå ñ÷èòàåì Ëèâàí îòâåòñòâåííûì, – ñêàçàë Óýë÷ Newsweek â òåëåôîííîì èíòåðâüþ èç Èåðóñàëèìà. – Ìû ïðîâîäèì ðàçëè÷èå ìåæäó ïðàâèòåëüñòâîì Ôóàäà àñ-Ñèíüîðû è "Õèçáàëëîé". Èìåííî ïîýòîìó ïðåçèäåíò ãîâîðèë î çàùèòå äåìîêðàòèè â Ëèâàíå".

Äðóãàÿ ÷àñòü àìåðèêàíñêîé ñòðàòåãèè, çàÿâèë Óýë÷, çàêëþ÷àåòñÿ â òîì, ÷òîáû íå äàòü Íàñðàëëå ïðåâðàòèòü ïîòåíöèàëüíûé àëüÿíñ ñ ÕÀÌÀÑ ïî ïîâîäó çàõâà÷åííûõ èçðàèëüòÿí â åäèíûé ôðîíò ñî ñòîÿùèìè çà íèì Èðàíîì è Ñèðèåé. (Íåïîñðåäñòâåííî ïåðåä àòàêîé "Õèçáàëëû" Èçðàèëü è ÕÀÌÀÑ áûëè áëèçêè ê ñîãëàøåíèþ îá îáìåíå çàêëþ÷åííûìè ïðè ïîñðåäíè÷åñòâå Åãèïòà. Ïîçæå Êàèð â ÷àñòíîì ïîðÿäêå ïðèçíàâàëñÿ àìåðèêàíöàì, ÷òî Íàñðàëëà, Èðàí è Ñèðèÿ îêàçûâàëè äàâëåíèå íà ÕÀÌÀÑ, òðåáóÿ âûéòè èç ïåðåãîâîðîâ.) "Áóäüòå óâåðåíû, ÷òî ìû íå äàåì èðàíöàì è Íàñðàëëå, ðàâíî êàê è èõ ñóáïîäðÿä÷èêó Õàëåäó Ìàøàëþ, ëèäåðó ÕÀÌÀÑ, æèâóùåìó â Ñèðèè, òîãî, ÷òî îíè õîòÿò, à îíè õîòÿò ñâÿçàòü äâå âåùè, – ñêàçàë Óýë÷. – Íå çíàþ, ñëó÷èòñÿ ýòî èëè íåò, íî òàê äîëæíî áûòü. Ïðîáëåìó Ãàçû íàäî ðåøàòü îòäåëüíî".

Âîïðîñ â òîì, ïðèìóò ëè àðàáñêèå øèèòû ýòó àðãóìåíòàöèþ. ÑØÀ âíèìàòåëüíî ñëåäÿò çà îáùåñòâåííûì ìíåíèåì ëèâàíöåâ, êîòîðûì ïîêà íå çà ÷òî áëàãîäàðèòü Âàøèíãòîí. Àìåðèêà, ïðè ïîìîùè Ôðàíöèè, çàñòàâèëà Ñèðèþ âûâåñòè âîéñêà èç Ëèâàíà ïîñëå ïîäîçðèòåëüíîãî óáèéñòâà áûâøåãî ëèâàíñêîãî ïðåìüåðà Ðàôèêà Õàðèðè â ïðîøëîì ãîäó. (Ïðîáëåìà: ïîääåðæèâàåìàÿ Ñèðèåé "Õèçáàëëà" áûëà èçáðàíà â íîâûé ïàðëàìåíò Ëèâàíà, íà êîòîðûé Èçðàèëü âîçëàãàåò ÷àñòü îòâåòñòâåííîñòè.) "Òåïåðü àäìèíèñòðàöèÿ ñòîëêíóëàñü ñ ñèòóàöèåé, êîãäà èçðàèëüòÿíå âðåäÿò óìåðåííîìó àíòèñèðèéñêîìó ïðàâèòåëüñòâó Ëèâàíà, – ãîâîðèò Ààðîí Ìèëëåð, áûâøèé àìåðèêàíñêèé ïîñëàííèê íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå, ðàáîòàþùèé ñåé÷àñ â Öåíòðå Âóäðî Âèëüñîíà â Âàøèíãòîíå. – Âñÿ ýòà îïåðàöèÿ ïðîâîöèðóåò àíòèèçðàèëüñêèå è àíòèàìåðèêàíñêèå íàñòðîåíèÿ". Âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûé ëèâàíñêèé ÷èíîâíèê íà óñëîâèÿõ àíîíèìíîñòè çàÿâèë, ÷òî äàâëåíèå ÑØÀ íà Èçðàèëü â ëó÷øåì ñëó÷àå íåçíà÷èòåëüíî. "Íà äåëå îíè êàê áû ãîâîðÿò èçðàèëüòÿíàì: âìåñòî òîãî ÷òîáû ñáðîñèòü íà ìîñò ïÿòü áîìá, îãðàíè÷üòåñü ÷åòûðüìÿ", – ãîðüêî çàìåòèë îí.

Áóø ïðåêðàñíî çíàåò, ÷òî äâå ãëàâíûå çàäà÷è åãî ïðåçèäåíòñòâà – áîðüáà ñ òåððîðèçìîì è ïðîäâèæåíèå äåìîêðàòèè – ðèñêóþò ñòîëêíóòüñÿ â Ëèâàíå. Íåóäèâèòåëüíî, ãîâîðèò âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûé èçðàèëüñêèé èñòî÷íèê, ÷òî åãî ñòðàíà ïîëó÷àåò èç Âàøèíãòîíà ïðîòèâîðå÷èâûå ñèãíàëû. "Ìû ïîëó÷àåì ïîääåðæêó è îäíîâðåìåííî – ïðîñüáû ñáàâèòü òîí. Íî â ýòîì ñëó÷àå äàâëåíèÿ íåò". Íåñîìíåííî, èçðàèëüòÿíå íàïîìíèëè àäìèíèñòðàöèè, êàê â ïðîøëîì ãîäó ïðåäóïðåæäàëè Âàøèíãòîí, ÷òî îí òîðîïèòñÿ ñ ïàëåñòèíñêèìè âûáîðàìè – ïîñïåøíàÿ äåìîêðàòèÿ ïðèâåëà ê âëàñòè ÕÀÌÀÑ. Êîìàíäà Áóøà îòìåëà ýòè ïðåäóïðåæäåíèÿ.

Íî äàæå èçðàèëüñêèé èñòî÷íèê ãîâîðèò, ÷òî ïðè íûíåøíåé ýñêàëàöèè âîéíû ïîíàäîáèòñÿ ïîñðåäíèê. Îí ñ÷èòàåò, ÷òî ýòó ìèññèþ ìîã áû âçÿòü íà ñåáÿ Âàøèíãòîí èëè ÎÎÍ. Íî îí äîáàâëÿåò: "Êòî âîçüìåò íà ñåáÿ ëèäåðñòâî?" Î÷åíü ñêîðî Áóøó, âîçìîæíî, ïðèäåòñÿ âíîâü çàäàòüñÿ ýòèì âîïðîñîì.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 27 2006, 09:23:20     :

http://www.newsru.co.il/press/27jul2006/jpost.html

Õåðá Êåéíîí

Êàê óäàëîñü óçíàòü ãàçåòå The Jerusalem Post, ÑØÀ "ðåêîìåíäóþò" Èçðàèëþ ïðîâåñòè ïåðåãîâîðû ñ Ëèâàíîì ïî âîçìîæíîìó âûâîäó ñèë ñ òåððèòîðèè, èìåíóåìîé Ôåðìàìè Øåáàà (ãîðà Äîâ), â ðàìêàõ äîëãîñðî÷íîãî óðåãóëèðîâàíèÿ îòíîøåíèé.

Ýòîò âîïðîñ áûë îäíîé èç ãëàâíûõ òåì ïåðåãîâîðîâ ãîññåêðåòàðÿ ÑØÀ Êîíäîëèçû Ðàéñ ñ ïðåìüåð-ìèíèñòðîì Èçðàèëÿ Ýõóäîì Îëüìåðòîì â Èåðóñàëèìå âî âòîðíèê.

Îäíàêî ýòîò âîïðîñ, òàê æå êàê è äèñêóññèè ïî ìàíäàòó è ñîñòàâó âîçìîæíîãî ìèðîòâîð÷åñêîãî êîíòèíãåíòà â Ëèâàíå, â ñðåäó îòîäâèíóëñÿ íà âòîðîé ïëàí èç-çà îæåñòî÷åííûõ ñðàæåíèé è ïîòåðü Àðìèè îáîðîíû Èçðàèëÿ â Áèíàò-Äæàáèëå.

Ïðåìüåð-ìèíèñòð Ýõóä Îëüìåðò â ñðåäó âå÷åðîì ñîáðàë âåäóùèõ ìèíèñòðîâ ñâîåãî ïðàâèòåëüñòâà – ýòó ãðóïïó íàçûâàþò "ôîðóìîì ñåìè" – ñ öåëüþ îáñóæäåíèÿ âåäóùèõñÿ áîåâ è èõ ïîñëåäñòâèé.

Ïîìèìî Îëüìåðòà, â ýòîò ôîðóì, óïîëíîìî÷åííûé êàáèíåòîì áåçîïàñíîñòè ïðèíèìàòü îïåðàòèâíûå ðåøåíèÿ êàñàòåëüíî áîåâûõ äåéñòâèé, âêëþ÷àåò ìèíèñòðà îáîðîíû Àìèðà Ïåðåöà, ìèíèñòðà èíîñòðàííûõ äåë Öèïè Ëèâíè, âèöå-ïðåìüåðà Øèìîíà Ïåðåñà, ìèíèñòðà ïðîìûøëåííîñòè è òîðãîâëè Ýëè Èøàÿ, ìèíèñòðà âíóòðåííåé áåçîïàñíîñòè Àâè Äèõòåðà è ìèíèñòðà òðàíñïîðòà Øàóëÿ Ìîôàçà.

Îëüìåðò ñîáðàë ôîðóì â ñâîåì îôèñå â Òåëü-Àâèâå ïîñëå ïîåçäêè íà âåðòîëåòå íà ñåâåð ñòðàíû, ãäå îí âñòðåòèëñÿ ñ ìýðàìè è ãëàâàìè ìåñòíûõ ñîâåòîâ è áûë ïðîèíôîðìèðîâàí î áîåâûõ äåéñòâèÿõ, ïðîâåäåííûõ â ñðåäó.

Ïîñëå âñòðå÷è ñ ìýðîì Ñàôåäà Èøàåì Ìàéìîíîì Îëüìåðò çàÿâèë, ÷òî íûíåøíÿÿ âîéíà "îòëè÷àåòñÿ îò âñåõ òåõ, ÷òî ìû âåëè â ïðîøëîì". Îí íå óêàçàë, êîãäà çàêîí÷èòñÿ îïåðàöèÿ ÖÀÕÀËà.

Îäíàêî, îäíèì èç îùóùåíèé ïîñëå âñòðå÷ Ðàéñ, ïðîâåäåííûõ âî âòîðíèê, áûëî îùóùåíèå ñðåäè àìåðèêàíöåâ, ÷òî "ïðåêðàùåíèå áîåâûõ äåéñòâèé" äàñò Èçðàèëþ è Ëèâàíó – Ëèâàíó, à íå "Õèçáàëëå" – âîçìîæíîñòü äîñòèãíóòü ñâîåãî ðîäà ïîáåäû. Ñîãëàñíî ýòîé ôîðìóëå, ïîáåäîé äëÿ Èçðàèëÿ ñòàíåò ïîëíîå ñîêðóøåíèå "Õèçáàëëû", îòòåñíåííîé ñ ñåâåðíûõ ãðàíèö Èçðàèëÿ. Äëÿ ëèâàíöåâ ïîáåäîé ìîæåò áûòü âûâîä èçðàèëüñêèõ ñèë èç ðàéîíà ãîðû Äîâ, è êðóïíûé ìåæäóíàðîäíûé ïàêåò ãóìàíèòàðíîé ïîìîùè.

Ëèâàíñêèé ïðåìüåð-ìèíèñòð Ôóàä Ñèíüîðà ñîñëàëñÿ íà ýòîò âîïðîñ íà ïðåññ-êîíôåðåíöèè ïî îêîí÷àíèè êîíôåðåíöèè â Ðèìå â ñðåäó, çàÿâèâ, ÷òî êîíôåðåíöèÿ ïðåäîñòàâèëà âîçìîæíîñòü îçâó÷èòü "òðåáîâàíèÿ Ëèâàíà êàñàòåëüíî òîãî, ÷òî óæå ìíîãèå ãîäû ÷àñòü íàøåé ñòðàíû ïî-ïðåæíåìó îêêóïèðîâàíà – Ôåðìû Øåáàà, êîòîðûå äî ñèõ ïîð îêêóïèðîâàíû Èçðàèëåì".

ÑØÀ íå äàâÿò íà Èçðàèëü â ýòîì âîïðîñå, îäíàêî îáñóæäàþò ñ Èåðóñàëèìîì òî, êîãäà åãî ñòîèò âûíåñòè íà îáñóæäåíèå. Ñîãëàñíî èíôîðìàöèè, ïîëó÷åííîé The Jerusalem Post, è Âàøèíãòîí, è Èåðóñàëèì îáåñïîêîåíû òåì, ÷òîáû ãîòîâíîñòü âåñòè òàêèå ïåðåãîâîðû íå áûëà âîñïðèíÿòà êàê ïîáåäà "Õèçáàëëû". Òåì íå ìåíåå, ÑØÀ ñîâåòóþò Èçðàèëþ îáäóìàòü âûíåñåíèå ýòîãî âîïðîñà íà ïåðåãîâîðû.

Ðåãèîí, î êîòîðîì èäåò ðå÷ü – ýòî 100 êâ. ìèëü çåìëè ó ïîäíîæèÿ ãîðû Õåðìîí, ãäå âñòðå÷àþòñÿ ñèðèéñêàÿ, ëèâàíñêàÿ è èçðàèëüñêàÿ ãðàíèöû. Èçðàèëü óñòàíîâèë êîíòðîëü íàä ýòîé òåððèòîðèåé ïîñëå Øåñòèäíåâíîé âîéíû â 1967 ãîäó, è ñ òåõ ïîð ïîñòðîèë ðÿä âîåííûõ ïîñòîâ íà ñòðàòåãè÷åñêèõ âûñîòàõ.

ÎÎÍ ïîñòàíîâèëà, ÷òî ýòîò ðàéîí ÿâëÿåòñÿ îêêóïèðîâàííîé Èçðàèëåì ÷àñòüþ Ñèðèè, è ñèðèéöû íèêîãäà íå õîòåëè îòäàâàòü åå ëèâàíöàì. Òàê ÷òî ëþáàÿ ñäåëêà ïî ýòîìó âîïðîñó ïîòðåáóåò ñîãëàñèÿ Ñèðèè.

Ïðåññ-ñåêðåòàðü ìèíèñòåðñòâà èíîñòðàííûõ äåë Èçðàèëÿ Ìàðê Ðåãåâ íà âîïðîñ î òîì, ãîòîâ ëè Èçðàèëü îáñóæäàòü ýòó òåìó ñ ëèâàíöàìè, çàÿâèë: "Íàñêîëüêî ÿ çíàþ, íèêòî â ìåæäóíàðîäíîì ñîîáùåñòâå íå ñ÷èòàåò Ôåðìû Øåáàà ÷àñòüþ Ëèâàíà".

Èäåÿ î ïðèâíåñåíèè Ôåðì Øåáàà â óðàâíåíèå áûëà âïåðâûå âûñêàçàíà íà ïðîøëîé íåäåëå ïîñëàííèêîì ÎÎÍ Òåðüå Ðîä-Ëàðñåíîì âî âðåìÿ âèçèòà â ðåãèîí. Â õîäå âñòðå÷ â Èåðóñàëèìå îí ïðåäñòàâèë ýòó èäåþ êàê òî, ÷òî èçðàèëüòÿíå ìîãóò îòæàòü ëèâàíöàì. Èçðàèëü îòðåàãèðîâàë íà ýòî ïðåäëîæåíèå óêàçàíèåì íà òî, ÷òî îáñóæäàòü ýòîò âîïðîñ ïîêà ïðåæäåâðåìåííî.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 27 2006, 16:21:19     :

http://www.newsru.co.il/press/27jul2006/wpost.html

Ïèòåð Áåéêåð

Î÷åðåäíîé êðèçèñ íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå íàðóøèë âíóòðè- è âíåøíåïîëèòè÷åñêèå ïëàíû ïðåçèäåíòà Áóøà íà âàæíîì ïåðåêðåñòêå, âíîâü ïîðîäèâ ðàçíîãëàñèÿ ñ çàðóáåæíûìè ñîþçíèêàìè è ïîñòàâèâ ïîä óãðîçó ïîïûòêè âîññòàíîâèòü äîâåðèå äîìà, ñ÷èòàþò ÷èíîâíèêè, àíàëèòèêè è äèïëîìàòû.

Ðàçëàä íà â÷åðàøíåé êîíôåðåíöèè â Ðèìå ïî ïîâîäó ïðåäïîëàãàåìîãî ïðåêðàùåíèÿ îãíÿ ìåæäó Èçðàèëåì è Ëèâàíîì âûñâåòèë óâåëè÷èâàþùååñÿ ðàñõîæäåíèå ìåæäó ÑØÀ è Åâðîïîé ïî ïîâîäó ñöåíàðèåâ ïðåêðàùåíèÿ âîåííûõ äåéñòâèé. À êàðòèíû íåðàçáåðèõè, ïîñòóïàþùèå èç ðåãèîíà, ãäå èäåò ýòà äâóõíåäåëüíàÿ âîéíà, â ñî÷åòàíèè ñ ðîñòîì ÷èñëà ïîãèáøèõ â Èðàêå åùå áîëüøå ïóãàþò àìåðèêàíñêóþ àóäèòîðèþ, è áåç òîãî, êàê ïîêàçûâàþò îïðîñû, êîëåáëþùóþñÿ â ñâîåì îòíîøåíèè ê ïðåçèäåíòñòâó Áóøà.

Äëÿ ïðåçèäåíòà íåëüçÿ áûëî âûáðàòü âðåìÿ õóæå. Âî âòîðîì ñðîêå, íà ïðîòÿæåíèè êîòîðîãî îäíà íåóäà÷à ñìåíÿåò äðóãóþ, Áåëûé äîì áûë çàñòèãíóò ïîñðåäè âîññòàíîâèòåëüíûõ óñèëèé, íàïðàâëåííûõ íà ïîëèòè÷åñêîå îçäîðîâëåíèå ïåðåä âàæíûìè íîÿáðüñêèìè âûáîðàìè çàêîíîäàòåëüíîé âëàñòè. Òåïåðü ïðåçèäåíò ñòîëêíóëñÿ ñ íåîáõîäèìîñòüþ ðåàãèðîâàòü íà ñîáûòèÿ, êîòîðûå, ïîõîæå, îïÿòü âûõîäÿò èç-ïîä êîíòðîëÿ, ïî÷òè âûòåñíÿÿ íà îáî÷èíó åãî âíóòðèïîëèòè÷åñêèå çàäà÷è è çàòðóäíÿÿ åìó ïîïûòêè ñïëîòèòü ìèð âîêðóã ïðåêðàùåíèÿ ÿäåðíûõ ïðîãðàìì â Èðàíå è ÊÍÄÐ.

Êðèçèñ ñòàâèò ïîä óãðîçó îäíó èç ôèðìåííûõ àìáèöèé Áóøà. Ýòî ïðåçèäåíò, êîòîðûé îòâåðã ïðåäûäóùèå ìèðîòâîð÷åñêèå óñèëèÿ íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå êàê áåñïëîäíûå, ïðåäëîæèâ âçàìåí ãðàíäèîçíûé ïëàí ïðåâðàùåíèÿ ðåãèîíà â áîëåå äåìîêðàòè÷íîå è ìèðíîå ìåñòî. Ãîä íàçàä êàçàëîñü, ÷òî ïîøëà âîëíà ðåôîðì. Íî ñåãîäíÿ ðàäèêàëèçì íà ïîäúåìå, Èðàí, êàê ïîëàãàþò, ïðèáëèçèëñÿ ê ïîëó÷åíèþ ÿäåðíîãî îðóæèÿ, à Áóø ïîñûëàåò åùå òûñÿ÷è âîåííîñëóæàùèõ â Áàãäàä ïîäàâëÿòü íàðàñòàþùåå ïî ñïèðàëè íàñèëèå.

"Âû èìååò Ëèâàí, Èçðàèëü è ïîëûõàþùèå ïàëåñòèíñêèå òåððèòîðèè, âû èìååòå äî ñèõ ïîð ïîëûõàþùèé Èðàê, âû èìååòå íåðåøåííóþ èðàíñêóþ ïðîáëåìó, – ãîâîðèë âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûé ÷èíîâíèê Ãîñäåïàðòàìåíòà Êàðëîñ Ïàñêóàëü äî íûíåøíåãî ãîäà. – Ýòî âðåäèò ÑØÀ íà ìèðîâîé àðåíå, òàê êàê çàêðåïëÿåò â óìàõ ìûñëü î òîì, ÷òî ÑØÀ íå ìûñëèëè ñòðàòåãè÷åñêè, íå äóìàëè çàðàíåå î òîì, êàê ðåøèòü âåñü íàáîð ïðîáëåì, ÷òîáû ýòî áûëî ðåàëèñòè÷íî è ýôôåêòèâíî".

Ñîâåòíèêè Áóøà, èñïûòàâøèå â ïðîøëîì ãîäó äàâëåíèå â ñâÿçè ñ êàòàñòðîôè÷åñêèì óðàãàíîì, ðàñòóùèìè öåíàìè íà áåíçèí, ïðîâàëîì èíèöèàòèâû â ñôåðå ñîöèàëüíîãî ñòðàõîâàíèÿ, áóíòàìè ðåñïóáëèêàíöåâ, óãîëîâíûìè ðàññëåäîâàíèÿìè è áåçæàëîñòíîé âîéíîé çà ãðàíèöåé, ñêàçàëè, ÷òî îíè ïðèâûêëè ê ïîñòîÿííîìó êðèçèñó. " ïîñëåäíþþ ïàðó ëåò ýòî íîðìà äëÿ íàøåé àäìèíèñòðàöèè, – çàÿâèë âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûé ÷èíîâíèê. – Íà÷èíàåøü æäàòü íåîæèäàííîñòåé".

Ïðèîðèòåòîì äëÿ Áóøà áóäåò ïðåâðàùåíèå êðàòêîñðî÷íîé òðóäíîñòè â äîëãîñðî÷íóþ âîçìîæíîñòü. "Ñåé÷àñ ýòè êàäðû èç Ëèâàíà, ñèòóàöèÿ ñ ëþäüìè, êîòîðûå ïûòàþòñÿ âûáðàòüñÿ îòòóäà, ÿ óâåðåí, âûáèâàþò ëþäåé èç êîëåè, – çàÿâèë ÷èíîâíèê íà óñëîâèÿõ àíîíèìíîñòè, ÷òîáû èìåòü âîçìîæíîñòü îáñóæäàòü ñòðàòåãèþ. – Íî â áëèæàéøèå íåäåëè ñèòóàöèÿ áóäåò ðàçâèâàòüñÿ, óâèäÿò ìåæäóíàðîäíóþ ðåàêöèþ, è ìîæåò âîçíèêíóòü ìîìåíò, êîãäà ëþäè ïîéìóò, ÷òî ïîñòàâëåíî íà êîí è ïî÷åìó ìû äåëàåì òî, ÷òî äåëàåì, íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå".

Ïî êðàéíåé ìåðå ñåé÷àñ ðåøèòåëüíàÿ çàùèòà Áóøåì ïðàâà Èçðàèëÿ îòâå÷àòü íà àòàêè "Õèçáàëëû" ïîëó÷èëà ïîääåðæêó îáåèõ ïàðòèé â êîíãðåññå, ÷òî äàåò åìó íåêîòîðîå ïðîñòðàíñòâî äëÿ ìàíåâðà. Åñëè óãîäíî, íåêîòîðûå äåìîêðàòû ïûòàþòñÿ ïðåäñòàâèòü ñåáÿ áîëåå ïðîèçðàèëüñêèìè, ÷åì îí, íàïàäàÿ íà ïðåçèäåíòà èç-çà òîãî, ÷òî èðàêñêèé ïðåìüåð Íóðè àëü Ìàëèêè îñóäèë èçðàèëüñêèå óäàðû ïî Þæíîìó Ëèâàíó.

Íî ðåçêîå ðàçëè÷èå ìåæäó ïðîèçðàèëüñêîé ïîçèöèåé Âàøèíãòîíà è êðèòèêîé Èçðàèëÿ âî ìíîãèõ åâðîïåéñêèõ è àðàáñêèõ ñòîëèöàõ âûñâå÷èâàåò äåéñòâèå âíåøíåé ïîëèòèêè Áóøà. Ñ ìîìåíòà ñâîåãî ïåðåèçáðàíèÿ Áóø ðàáîòàåò íàä âîññòàíîâëåíèåì îòíîøåíèé ñ åâðîïåéñêèìè ñîþçíèêàìè, ðàññûïàâøèìèñÿ ïîñëå âòîðæåíèÿ â Èðàê, è, ïî ìíåíèþ ìíîãèõ àíàëèòèêîâ, îí â çíà÷èòåëüíîé ìåðå äîáèëñÿ óñïåõà.

Îí ãîòîâèëñÿ ïîæèíàòü ïëîäû ñâîåé äèïëîìàòèè, êîãäà â èþëå åõàë â Åâðîïó è íà ñàììèò "áîëüøîé âîñüìåðêè" â Ïåòåðáóðãå, óâåðåííûé, ÷òî èìååò ïðèíöèïèàëüíûé êîíñåíñóñ ñ Áðèòàíèåé, Ôðàíöèåé, Ãåðìàíèåé, Ðîññèåé è Êèòàåì ïî ïîâîäó áîëåå æåñòêèõ ìåð ïðîòèâ Èðàíà, áðîñàþùåãî èì âûçîâ ñâîåé ÿäåðíîé ïðîãðàììîé.

Íî ê ìîìåíòó ïðèáûòèÿ Áóøà â Ïåòåðáóðã ðàçðàçèëñÿ íîâûé êîíôëèêò, è Èðàí îòîäâèíóëè íà çàäíèé ïëàí. Õîòÿ åâðîïåéñêèå ëèäåðû ñîãëàñèëèñü, ÷òî â âîåííûõ äåéñòâèÿõ âèíîâíà "Õèçáàëëà", îíè îñóäèëè òî, ÷òî íàçâàëè íåïðîïîðöèîíàëüíûì îòâåòîì Èçðàèëÿ, è íàñòàèâàëè íà íåìåäëåííîì ïðåêðàùåíèè îãíÿ, òîãäà êàê Áóø âûñòóïèë ïðîòèâ íåìåäëåííîãî ïðåêðàùåíèÿ âîåííûõ äåéñòâèé è ôàêòè÷åñêè äàë Èçðàèëþ âðåìÿ óíè÷òîæèòü "Õèçáàëëó", íàñêîëüêî ýòî âîçìîæíî.

Áîëåå òîãî, ïåðâîíà÷àëüíî êàçàëîñü, ÷òî àäìèíèñòðàöèÿ íå óâåðåíà, êàê ðåàãèðîâàòü, îòìåòèëè íåêîòîðûå àíàëèòèêè. Êîãäà ÷ëåíû G8 ïðèíÿëè çàÿâëåíèå, ïðèçûâàþùåå ðàññìîòðåòü âîçìîæíîñòü îòïðàâêè â Þæíûé Ëèâàí ìåæäóíàðîäíûõ ñèë ïî îêîí÷àíèè âîåííûõ äåéñòâèé, íåêîòîðûå àìåðèêàíñêèå ÷èíîâíèêè òîëüêî ÷òî íå îòâåðãëè ýòó èäåþ. Íî òåïåðü îíà ñòîèò â öåíòðå òîãî, ÷åãî ïûòàåòñÿ äîáèòüñÿ ãîññåêðåòàðü Êîíäîëèçà Ðàéñ.

"Ýòî íà÷èíàåò ïåðåãðóæàòü ñèñòåìó, – çàÿâèë Ïàñêóàëü, ñòàâøèé òåïåðü âèöå-ïðåçèäåíòîì àíàëèòè÷åñêîãî öåíòðà Brookings Institution. – Åñòü î÷åíü ìàëåíüêàÿ êîìàíäà, êîòîðàÿ ðåàëüíî ñòîèò â öåíòðå âåäåíèÿ äåë ïî âñåì ýòèì âîïðîñàì. Ñ ìîåé òî÷êè çðåíèÿ, óæå ìîæíî âèäåòü, ÷òî ñîâåðøàþòñÿ êàêèå-òî îøèáêè".

Áëèæíèé Âîñòîê âûøåë íà ïåðåäíèé ïëàí, à èðàíñêàÿ ïðîáëåìà ñíîâà óâÿçëà â Ñîâåòå Áåçîïàñíîñòè ÎÎÍ, ãäå Ðîññèÿ ïðîòèâèòñÿ æåñòêîé ðåçîëþöèè, ãðîçÿùåé ñàíêöèÿìè, õîòÿ, ïî ìíåíèþ àìåðèêàíñêèõ ÷èíîâíèêîâ, îíà ñîãëàñèëàñü íà òàêîé ïîäõîä íà ñîâåùàíèè â Ïàðèæå íåçàäîëãî äî òîãî, êàê íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå âñïûõíóë êîíôëèêò. Àíàëîãè÷íî èç ïîëÿ çðåíèÿ èñ÷åçëà ÊÍÄÐ, ëèøü íåäåëè ñïóñòÿ ïîñëå ïðîâîêàöèîííûõ èñïûòàíèé ðàêåò.

Âìåñòî òîãî ÷òîáû âîçãëàâèòü êîàëèöèþ, Áóø ðàçúÿñíÿåò ñîþçíèêàì ñâîþ ïîçèöèþ, âîñêðåøàÿ âîñïîìèíàíèÿ î ïðèíöèïèàëüíûõ ðàçíîãëàñèÿõ âðåìåí ñâîåãî ïåðâîãî ñðîêà. "Êîãäà äåëî âûãëÿäèò òàê, êàê áóäòî ìû ïðåäïî÷èòàåì îäèíî÷åñòâî, ýòî çàêðåïëÿåò îïðåäåëåííûå îáðàçû, – çàÿâèë Äåííèñ Ðîññ, áëèæíåâîñòî÷íûé ïåðåãîâîðùèê ïðè ïðåçèäåíòàõ Äæîðäæå Áóøå-ñòàðøåì è Áèëëå Êëèíòîíå. – ÑØÀ äåéñòâèòåëüíî âåäóò ñåáÿ ïðàâèëüíî. Íî ñ÷èòàþò ëè íàñ äîñòàòî÷íî àêòèâíûìè â ñîçäàíèè êîíñòðóêòèâíîãî ïëàíà?"

Ðîññ îòìåòèë, ÷òî Áóø ìîæåò èñïîëüçîâàòü ñèòóàöèþ, ÷òîáû óêðåïèòü ñâîþ ïîçèöèþ ïî ïîâîäó óãðîçû ñî ñòîðîíû ÿäåðíîãî Èðàíà, ó÷èòûâàÿ åãî ñâÿçè ñ "Õèçáàëëîé". "Èðàí âåäåò ñåáÿ äåðçêî, êîãäà ó íåãî íåò ÿäåðíîãî ùèòà. Êàê áû îí ñåáÿ âåë, åñëè áû ó íåãî áûë ÿäåðíûé ùèò?" – ñêàçàë îí.

Äîìà, îòìåòèëè ïîëèòè÷åñêèå ñòðàòåãè, Áóøó ãðîçèò ìíåíèå, ÷òî îí êîíòðîëèðóåò îäíó ëîêàëüíóþ âîéíó çà äðóãîé, ÷òî ñòàâèò ïîä óãðîçó åãî ïîïûòêè ïðîâîäèòü ïîçèòèâíóþ ïðîãðàììó â ïåðèîä, êîãäà ðåñïóáëèêàíöû êîíòðîëèðóþò êîíãðåññ. Åãî âåäóùèé âíóòðèïîëèòè÷åñêèé ïðèîðèòåò ãîäà, âñåîáúåìëþùèé èììèãðàöèîííûé ïëàí, ïîõîæå, óæå çàñòðÿë äî îêîí÷àíèÿ âûáîðîâ. Ýñêàëàöèÿ ñìåðòåé â Èðàêå, âîçìîæíî, óæå ðàçðóøèëà âñå øàíñû íà ìàñøòàáíûé âûâîä îòòóäà àìåðèêàíñêèõ âîéñê äî âûáîðîâ. À ñåé÷àñ â ðàçãîâîðàõ ïðåîáëàäàþò ðàêåòû, ëåòÿùèå â Þæíûé Ëèâàí è èç íåãî.

"Ýòî ñèëüíî ñïîñîáñòâóåò îáùåìó îùóùåíèþ, ÷òî ó íàñ íåò ôîðìóëû óïðàâëåíèÿ è ðóêîâîäñòâà, – çàÿâèë Ñòèâ Ðè÷åòòè, êîòîðûé áûë çàìåñòèòåëåì ãëàâû àïïàðàòà Áåëîãî äîìà ïðè Êëèíòîíå. – Äëÿ ïðåçèäåíòà íåò íè÷åãî âàæíåå, ÷åì ìíåíèå îáùåñòâà, ñ÷èòàþùåãî, ÷òî ó íåãî åñòü îïðåäåëåííàÿ êîíöåïöèÿ è ñïîñîáíîñòü ðóêîâîäèòü. ß äóìàþ, ÷òî ïî îòíîøåíèþ ê íèì ýòî ÷óâñòâî îñëàáëî, è ýòî îãðîìíàÿ ïîëèòè÷åñêàÿ ïðîáëåìà".

Êàíäèäàòû îò ðåñïóáëèêàíöåâ, êîòîðûå è áåç òîãî íåðâíè÷àëè ïî ïîâîäó ãëàâíîêîìàíäóþùåãî, ÷åé ðåéòèíã çàñòðÿë â ðàéîíå 30%, âñå ñèëüíåå áåñïîêîÿòñÿ î âëèÿíèè íûíåøíåé âîéíû.

"Îíà ìîæåò íå ïðîñòî âìåøàòüñÿ â âûáîðû, îíà ìîæåò îêóòàòü èõ", – çàÿâèë Ëàíñ Òýððàíñ, âåäóùèé êîíñóëüòàíò ðåñïóáëèêàíöåâ. Ñ îäíîé ñòîðîíû, ñêàçàë îí, ýòî ìîæåò äàòü Áóøó øàíñ "ïðîäåìîíñòðèðîâàòü ëèäåðñòâî ïðåçèäåíòà", à èçáèðàòåëè íå ëþáÿò îùóùàòü ðóêîâîäñòâî âî âðåìÿ êðèçèñà. Ñ äðóãîé ñòîðîíû, "ýòî ìîæåò ñïðîâîöèðîâàòü ìàñøòàáíûé ðåãèîíàëüíûé êîíôëèêò, êîòîðûé óâåëè÷èâàåò" ãîëîñîâàíèå ïðîòèâ äåéñòâóþùåé âëàñòè "äî òàêîé ñòåïåíè, ÷òî ëþäè íà÷èíàþò áåñïîêîèòüñÿ çà ñòðàíó".

Áåëûé äîì âèäèò ðèñê, íî â êàêîé-òî ìåðå ñòàâèò íà òðàäèöèîííîå íåóìåíèå äåìîêðàòîâ èçâëåêàòü âûãîäó èç òàêèõ ìîìåíòîâ. Ñîâåòíèêè Áóøà íàïîìèíàþò î 2004 ãîäå, êîãäà ñèòóàöèÿ â Èðàêå âûãëÿäåëà îñîáåííî ìðà÷íîé, è òåì íå ìåíåå ïðåçèäåíòà ïåðåèçáðàëè, à ðåñïóáëèêàíöû ñîõðàíèëè çà ñîáîé îáå ïàëàòû êîíãðåññà.

Êðîìå òîãî, îòìå÷àþò îíè, ó Áóøà åñòü òðè ìåñÿöà íà òî, ÷òîáû âïèñàòü áëèæíåâîñòî÷íûé êîíôëèêò â ñâîþ êîíöåïöèþ âîéíû ñ òåððîðèçìîì.

"Óðåãóëèðîâàíèå ìîæåò çàíÿòü íåêîòîðîå âðåìÿ, – çàÿâèë âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûé ÷èíîâíèê Áóøà. – Ïðîèçîéäåò ýòî äî âûáîðîâ èëè ïîñëå, ÿ íå çíàþ".
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 4 2006, 15:34:07     :

http://www.newsru.co.il/press/04aug2006/dw_bz.html

Íàòàí Ãàðäåëñ

Áûâøèé àìåðèêàíñêèé ñîâåòíèê ïî íàöèîíàëüíîé áåçîïàñíîñòè Çáèãíåâ Áæåçèíñêèé î âîéíå Èçðàèëÿ ñ ýêñòðåìèñòàìè è îá èðàíñêîé áðàâàäå - Èçðàèëü ñìîã ñïðàâèòüñÿ ñ áîëüøèìè àðàáñêèìè ãîñóäàðñòâàìè çà øåñòü äíåé, íî "Õèçáàëëà" îñòàåòñÿ íåïîáåæäåííîé â òå÷åíèå äåñÿòèëåòèé. Îçíà÷àåò ëè ýòî ïîáåäó "Õèçáàëëû"?

- Íàäî ÷åòêî ïîíèìàòü, ÷òî Èçðàèëü îäåðæàë ïîáåäó íàä òðàäèöèîííûìè àðìèÿìè, ðóêîâîäñòâî êîòîðûìè â áîëüøèíñòâå ñëó÷àåâ îñóùåñòâëÿëîñü íåýôôåêòèâíûìè è çà÷àñòóþ êîððóìïèðîâàííûìè ðåæèìàìè. "Õèçáàëëà" âåäåò ïðîòèâ Èçðàèëÿ "àñèììåòðè÷íóþ" âîéíó, îïèðàÿñü íà ïîääåðæêó âñå áîëåå ðàäèêàëüíûõ è äàæå ôàíàòè÷íî íàñòðîåííûõ ìàññ. Ñîîòâåòñòâåííî, Èçðàèëþ ãîðàçäî òðóäíåå âåñòè äàííóþ âîéíó, ÷åì ïðåäûäóùèå.

- Çà ïîñëåäíèå ãîäû òàêèå èçðàèëüñêèå "ÿñòðåáû", êàê Àðèýëü Øàðîí è Áèíüÿìèí Íåòàíèÿãó, íå ðàç ïîä÷åðêèâàëè, ÷òî ó Èçðàèëÿ òðóäíûå ñîñåäè, ÷òî åãî îêðóæàþò èñêëþ÷èòåëüíî âðàãè, êîòîðûå ïîíèìàþò òîëüêî ÿçûê ñèëû. Ïðèìåðíî òå æå àðãóìåíòû ïðèâîäÿò àìåðèêàíñêèå íåîêîíñåðâàòîðû – âòîðæåíèå â Èðàê èìåëî äåìîíñòðàöèîííûé ýôôåêò. Âû ñîãëàñíû ñ òàêîé îöåíêîé?

- Ýòè íåîêîíñåðâàòèâíûå ðåöåïòû, àíàëîãè êîòîðûõ èìåþòñÿ òàêæå â Èçðàèëå, ôàòàëüíû äëÿ Àìåðèêè è áóäóò òàêîâûìè æå äëÿ Èçðàèëÿ. Îíè ïðèâåäóò ê òîìó, ÷òî ïîäàâëÿþùåå áîëüøèíñòâî ëþäåé íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå îòâåðíóòñÿ îò ÑØÀ. Óðîêè Èðàêà ãîâîðÿò ñàìè çà ñåáÿ. Åñëè è äàëüøå ñëåäîâàòü íåîêîíñåðâàòèâíîé ñòðàòåãèè, ÑØÀ â êîíöå êîíöîâ áóäóò âûäàâëåíû èç ðåãèîíà, è ýòî ñòàíåò íà÷àëîì êîíöà Èçðàèëÿ.

- Êàê â äàëüíåéøåì áóäóò îáñòîÿòü äåëà ñ àìåðèêàíñêîé äèïëîìàòèåé â ðåãèîíå, à èìåííî çà ïðåäåëàìè Èçðàèëÿ?

- Ñåãîäíÿ ñóùåñòâóåò íîâûé êîìïîíåíò: âñå òðóäíåå ñòàíîâèòñÿ îòäåëèòü äðóã îò äðóãà êîíôëèêò ìåæäó èçðàèëüòÿíàìè è ïàëåñòèíöàì, ïðîáëåìû Èðàêà è Èðàíà. Íè ÑØÀ, íè Èçðàèëü íå ìîãóò íàâÿçàòü Áëèæíåìó Âîñòîêó îäíîñòîðîííåå ðåøåíèå. Êîíå÷íî, åñòü ëþäè, êîòîðûå ïðèòâîðÿþòñÿ, áóäòî îíè ìîãóò ÷òî-òî ñäåëàòü. Íî ðåøåíèå âîçìîæíî òîëüêî ÷åðåç èçðàèëüñêî-ïàëåñòèíñêèé âîïðîñ, ïðè óñëîâèè ñåðüåçíîãî ìåæäóíàðîäíîãî ïðèñóòñòâèÿ, êîòîðîå ïîääåðæèò óìåðåííûå ñèëû ñ îáåèõ ñòîðîí è îäíîâðåìåííî áóäåò ñïîñîáñòâîâàòü ñîçäàíèþ ñèòóàöèè, êîãäà êëþ÷åâûå ñòîðîíû, çàäåéñòâîâàííûå â âîéíå, îêàæóòñÿ çàèíòåðåñîâàííûìè ñêîðåå â òîì, ÷òîáû ïîéòè íàâñòðå÷ó äðóã äðóãó, ÷åì â êîíôðîíòàöèè. Ñ îäíîé ñòîðîíû, ïî ïðè÷èíå îïðåäåëåííûõ ñòèìóëîâ, ñ äðóãîé – ïîòîìó ÷òî èçäåðæêè âîçüìóò íà ñåáÿ âíåøíèå ïîñðåäíèêè. Ðåçêàÿ êðèòèêà äåéñòâèé Èçðàèëÿ â Ëèâàíå ñî ñòîðîíû èðàêñêîãî ïðåìüåð-ìèíèñòðà Äæàâàäà àëü-Ìàëèêè – ýòî ïðèìåòà áóäóùèõ ïðîöåññîâ. Ïðåäñòàâëåíèå, áóäòî ó Ñîåäèíåííûõ Øòàòîâ ïîëó÷èòñÿ ñîçäàòü ãèáêèé, äåìîêðàòè÷åñêèé, ñòàáèëüíûé, ïðîàìåðèêàíñêèé è ëþáÿùèé Èçðàèëü Èðàê, îêàçàëîñü ìèôîì, êîòîðûé ñòðåìèòåëüíî ðóøèòñÿ.

- Êàê âû îöåíèâàåòå ïîëîæåíèå â Èðàíå?

- Ìû ñäåëàëè èðàíöàì áëàãîðàçóìíîå ïðåäëîæåíèå. ß íå çíàþ, õâàòèò ëè ó íèõ èíñòèíêòà, ÷òîáû îòâåòèòü íà íåãî ïîëîæèòåëüíî èëè õîòÿ áû íå îòâå÷àòü îòðèöàòåëüíî. ß ñêëîíÿþñü ê ïðåäïîëîæåíèþ, ÷òî îíè, ñêîðåå âñåãî, íå îòðåàãèðóþò íè îòðèöàòåëüíî, íè ïîëîæèòåëüíî è áóäóò ïûòàòüñÿ òàêèì îáðàçîì ïðèãëóøèòü ïðîöåññ.

- È ÷òî ïðîèçîéäåò â ýòîì ñëó÷àå?

- Ïðåäïîëîæèì, ÷òî îíè íå îòêàæóòñÿ îò ïðåäëîæåíèÿ, ýòî óæå íåïëîõî. Õîòÿ èðàíñêàÿ àòîìíàÿ ïðîãðàììà ïðåäñòàâëÿåò ñîáîé ñåðüåçíóþ ïðîáëåìó è õîòÿ èðàíöû â íåçíà÷èòåëüíîì îáúåìå ó÷àñòâóþò â äåëàõ Ëèâàíà, ðå÷ü íå èäåò î êàêîé-òî íåïîñðåäñòâåííîé óãðîçå. Èòàê, ó íàñ åñòü âðåìÿ, ÷òîáû ðåøèòü ýòó ïðîáëåìó. Èíîãäà âî âíåøíåé ïîëèòèêå ðàçóìíåå óñòðàíÿòü îïàñíîñòè ïî îäíîé, à íå âñå ñðàçó. Ïîñëåäíåå ìîæåò ñïðîâîöèðîâàòü äåñòðóêòèâíóþ îáðàòíóþ ðåàêöèþ. Ó íàñ åñòü âðåìÿ, ÷òîáû ïðîâåñòè ïåðåãîâîðû ñ Èðàíîì è ðåøèòü ïðîáëåìó àòîìíîé ýíåðãåòèêè, äàæå åñëè ïðîöåññ ïðåäïîëîæèòåëüíî óæå çàïóùåí. Ïðè ýòîì âîçìîæíî ðàñïðîñòðàíåíèå ïåðåãîâîðîâ íà òåìó áåçîïàñíîñòè â ðåãèîíå.  êîíöå êîíöîâ, îïàñåí Èðàí, à íå Èðàê. Èðàí – âîò îí. Èðàí áóäåò èãðàòü âàæíóþ ðîëü. È â èñòîðè÷åñêîé ïåðñïåêòèâå îí èìååò âñå óñëîâèÿ äëÿ êîíñòðóêòèâíîãî âíóòðåííåãî ðàçâèòèÿ – ñ ó÷åòîì ãðàìîòíîñòè åãî íàñåëåíèÿ, äîñòóïà ê õîðîøåìó îáðàçîâàíèþ è ðîëè æåíùèíû â îáùåñòâå. Ìóëëû – ýòî ÷àñòü ïðîøëîãî ñòðàíû, íî íå áóäóùåå. Îäíàêî ïåðåìåíû â Èðàíå äîëæíû ïðîèñõîäèòü ïîä âëèÿíèåì ïåðåãîâîðîâ, à íå êîíôðîíòàöèè. Åñëè ìû áóäåì ñëåäîâàòü ýòîìó ïóòè, ìû ñìîæåì ïðåäîòâðàòèòü íàèõóäøåå ðàçâèòèå ñîáûòèé. Åñëè íåò, òî, ÿ áîþñü, ýòî âçîðâåò ðåãèîí. Òîãäà Èçðàèëü íàäîëãî îêàæåòñÿ â áîëüøîé îïàñíîñòè.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 10 2006, 09:57:11     :

http://www.newsru.co.il/press/10aug2006/lastampa.html

Òåêñò ðåçîëþöèè ÎÎÍ ïî ïðåêðàùåíèþ îãíÿ â Ëèâàíå ðàçäåëèë Ôðàíöèþ è Ñîåäèíåííûå Øòàòû: ðàçíîãëàñèÿ ñâÿçàíû ñî ñðîêàìè è ñïîñîáàìè ðàçìåùåíèÿ ìåæäóíàðîäíîãî êîíòèíãåíòà.

Ïîñòîÿííûé ïðåäñòàâèòåëü Âåëèêîáðèòàíèè â ÎÎÍ Ýìèð Äæîíñ-Ïýððè çàÿâèë î íàëè÷èè "öåëîãî ðÿäà ðàçíîãëàñèé ïî òåêñòó", â òî âðåìÿ êàê åãî ôðàíöóçñêèé êîëëåãà Æàí-Ìàðê äå ëÿ Ñàáëèåð è àìåðèêàíñêèé êîëëåãà Äæîí Áîëòîí ñòàðàþòñÿ èçáåãàòü ïîäîáíûõ âûðàæåíèé ñ ÿâíûì æåëàíèåì ñêðûòü ïðîòèâîðå÷èÿ, ÷òîáû èçáåæàòü ïîâòîðåíèÿ ïîëåìèêè, âîçíèêøåé â 2003 ãîäó ïî Èðàêó. Íî íèêàêèå óõèùðåíèÿ íå ñïîñîáíû ñêðûòü ðàçíîãëàñèé ìåæäó äâóìÿ êîñïîíñîðàìè îáñóæäàåìîãî ïðîåêòà ðåçîëþöèè. ×òîáû óáåäèòüñÿ â ýòîì, îñòàòî÷íî ñðàâíèòü ñëîâà, ïðîèçíåñåííûå ôðàíöóçñêèì ïðåçèäåíòîì Æàêîì Øèðàêîì â Òóëîíå: â áëèæàéøèå ÷àñû "Ïàðèæ ìîæåò ñàìîñòîÿòåëüíî ïðåäñòàâèòü ñâîé òåêñò ðåçîëþöèè" – ñ òåì, ÷òî ñêàçàë Òîíè Ñíîó, ïðåññ-ñåêðåòàðü Áåëîãî äîìà: "Íåâîçìîæíî ñïðîãíîçèðîâàòü â äàííûé ìîìåíò, êîãäà ïðîéäåò ãîëîñîâàíèå â ÑÁ ÎÎÍ".

Ðàçíîãëàñèÿ ìåæäó Ôðàíöèåé è Ñîåäèíåííûìè Øòàòàìè âîçíèêëè âîêðóã ìåõàíèçìà îáåñïå÷åíèÿ ïðåêðàùåíèÿ îãíÿ. Ïàðèæ, ïîääåðæàâ ëèâàíñêèå ïðåäëîæåíèÿ, îäîáðåííûå Ëèãîé àðàáñêèõ ãîñóäàðñòâ, õî÷åò èçìåíèòü ñóùåñòâóþùèé ïðîåêò è ââåñòè ìåõàíèçì, â ñèëó êîòîðîãî èçðàèëüñêàÿ àðìèÿ "íåçàìåäëèòåëüíî" ïîêèíåò òåððèòîðèþ Ëèâàíà ïîñëå ïðåêðàùåíèÿ áîåâûõ äåéñòâèé. Èçðàèëüòÿíå äîëæíû áóäóò ïåðåäàòü ñâîè ïîçèöèè íàáëþäàòåëÿì UNIFIL (âðåìåííûõ ñèë ÎÎÍ â Ëèâàíå), à òå "â òå÷åíèå 72 ÷àñîâ" ïåðåäàäóò èõ 15 òûñÿ÷íîìó êîíòèíãåíòó àðìèè Áåéðóòà, êîòîðûé ïðåìüåð Ôóàä Ñèíüîðà îáÿçàëñÿ íàïðàâèòü íà þã ñòðàíû. Íî òàêîé ñöåíàðèé íå óäîâëåòâîðÿåò Âàøèíãòîí, ïîòîìó ÷òî îí ïîçâîëèò áîåâèêàì "Õèçáàëëàõ" âíîâü çàêðåïèòüñÿ â Þæíîì Ëèâàíå.

Èçâåñòíû òðè ïðè÷èíû îòêàçà àìåðèêàíñêîé ñòîðîíû: "ãîëóáûõ êàñîê" UNIFIL ìàëî, è îíè ïëîõî âîîðóæåíû; 72 ÷àñà, îáîçíà÷åííûå äëÿ ïåðåäà÷è ïîëíîìî÷èé, ñîçäàþò îïàñíûé âàêóóì âëàñòè; ëèâàíñêèå ñèëû ñàìîñòîÿòåëüíî íå ñïîñîáíû ïðîòèâîñòîÿòü äàâëåíèþ ñî ñòîðîíû õîðîøî ïîäãîòîâëåííûõ ïîâñòàíöåâ øåéõà Õàñàíà Íàñðàëëû. Ïðåäëîæåíèå ÑØÀ, óæå ñîäåðæàùååñÿ â èçâåñòíîì ïðîåêòå ðåçîëþöèè, çàêëþ÷àåòñÿ â òîì, ÷òî ïîçèöèè, êîòîðûå îñòàâèò Èçðàèëü, äîëæåí çàíÿòü ìåæäóíàðîäíûé êîíòèíãåíò – ÷òîáû "íå áûëî âàêóóìà âëàñòè" â îæèäàíèè ïðèáûòèÿ ëèâàíñêîé àðìèè, "êîòîðàÿ ñàìîñòîÿòåëüíî íå ìîæåò ñäåëàòü ýòîãî", î ÷åì è çàÿâèë Ñíîó.

"Ìû èñõîäèì èç óáåæäåíèÿ, ïîäòâåðæäåííîãî è â çàêëþ÷èòåëüíûõ äîêóìåíòàõ G8, ÷òî öåëü ìèðîâîãî ñîîáùåñòâà – íå äîïóñòèòü âîçâðàùåíèÿ áîåâèêîâ "Õèçáàëëàõ" òóäà, ãäå îíè áûëè, ïîñêîëüêó ýòî ÷ðåâàòî íîâûìè êðèçèñàìè", – óòâåðæäàåò Áîëòîí, ïîä÷åðêèâàÿ, ÷òî "ñ ñàìîãî íà÷àëà ìû ãîâîðèëè î òîì, ÷òî õîòåëè áû èçìåíèòü íà äëèòåëüíóþ ïåðñïåêòèâó ñèòóàöèþ â Þæíîì Ëèâàíå", è ýòî îçíà÷àåò ïîñòàâèòü "Õèçáàëëàõ" "â óñëîâèÿ, ëèøàþùèå âîçìîæíîñòè ðàçâÿçûâàòü êîíôëèêòû". Íå ñëó÷àéíî Ñíîó, íàõîäÿñü íà òåõàññêîì ðàí÷î â Êðîóôîðäå, îòìåòèë: "Åñëè íå áóäåò íîâîé ðåçîëþöèè, áóäåò äîñòàòî÷íî ïðèìåíèòü óæå ñóùåñòâóþùóþ ðåçîëþöèþ 1559", ïðåäóñìàòðèâàþùóþ ïîëíîå ðàçîðóæåíèå ëèâàíñêèõ ìèëèöèîííûõ ôîðìèðîâàíèé. Äðóãèìè ñëîâàìè: ðåøåíèå åñòü äàæå â ñëó÷àå ïàðàëè÷à Ñîâåòà Áåçîïàñíîñòè.

Èòàê, ïîçèöèÿ ÑØÀ îòðàæàåò ïîäõîä Èçðàèëÿ, â òî âðåìÿ êàê ïîçèöèÿ Ôðàíöèè îòðàæàåò òðåáîâàíèÿ Ëèâàíà: ìåæäó Áîëòîíîì è äå ëÿ Ñàáëèåðîì ìîæåò ïðîèçîéòè "êîðîòêîå çàìûêàíèå", êðîìå òîãî, íåëüçÿ èñêëþ÷àòü âåðîÿòíîñòè äèïëîìàòè÷åñêîé èãðû, öåëüþ êîòîðîé áóäåò äâèæåíèå ñòîðîí ê êîìïðîìèññó, ÷òîáû ãîëîñîâàíèå ñîñòîÿëîñü óæå ñåãîäíÿ èëè çàâòðà. "Îòêàç îò ïðåêðàùåíèÿ îãíÿ áûë áû àìîðàëüíûì", – ïðåäóïðåäèë Øèðàê, â òî âðåìÿ êàê Áåëûé äîì ïðîñèò êàê Èçðàèëü, òàê è "Õèçáàëëàõ" "èçáåãàòü ýñêàëàöèè".

 ïîïûòêå ïðåîäîëåòü òóïèê ýìèññàð ÑØÀ Äýâèä Óýë÷ âñòðåòèëñÿ â Áåéðóòå ñ Ñèíüîðîé è ïðîñèë åãî ñîãëàñèòüñÿ ñ ðàçìåùåíèåì ìíîãîíàöèîíàëüíûõ ñèë ïîñëå óõîäà èçðàèëüòÿí, íî ïðåìüåð-ìèíèñòð ïîñëå âñòðå÷è ñî ñïèêåðîì ïàðëàìåíòà Íàáèõîì Áåððè è ìèíèñòðàìè "Õèçáàëëàõ" îòâåòèë îòêàçîì. Íàñðàëëà âûñòóïèë ïî òåëåâèäåíèþ, íàçâàâ "íåñïðàâåäëèâîé" íûíåøíþþ âåðñèþ ðåçîëþöèè è ïîääåðæàâ ïîçèöèþ Ñèíüîðû â îòíîøåíèè ðàçìåùåíèÿ ëèâàíñêèõ ñîëäàò äî ïðèõîäà ñèë ÎÎÍ, è òåì ñàìûì ëèøü ïîêàçàë Âàøèíãòîíó è Èåðóñàëèìó, ÷òî áîåâèêè "Õèçáàëëàõ" óâåðåíû, ÷òî ñìîãóò âåðíóòüñÿ íà Þã, èñïîëüçóÿ â êà÷åñòâå ùèòà ëèâàíñêèõ ñîëäàò.
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 10 2006, 10:07:26     :

http://www.newsru.co.il/press/10aug2006/nyt.html

Õåëåí Êóïåð

 èþëå, êîãäà ðàçãîðàëèñü áîåâûå äåéñòâèÿ ìåæäó "Õèçáàëëîé" è Èçðàèëåì, ãîññåêðåòàðü Êîíäîëèçà Ðàéñ âñþ íî÷ü ðàáîòàëà â ñâîåì ãîñòèíè÷íîì íîìåðå íà ïîáåðåæüå Áàëòèêè â Ðîññèè íàä àìåðèêàíñêîé ðåàêöèåé íà ðàçâîðà÷èâàþùèéñÿ êðèçèñ.

Ñòðàòåãèÿ, íàìå÷åííàÿ åþ â òó íî÷ü, íàêàíóíå ñàììèòà "áîëüøîé âîñüìåðêè", îáîøëàñü áåç îáû÷íûõ äèïëîìàòè÷åñêèõ âèíüåòîê.  íåé íå áûëî ïðèçûâîâ ê íåìåäëåííîìó ïðåêðàùåíèþ îãíÿ è îäíîçíà÷íî ãîâîðèëîñü, ÷òî Èçðàèëü èìååò ïðàâî çàùèùàòü ñåáÿ.

Ïîäõîä, îäîáðåííûé íàóòðî ïðåçèäåíòîì Áóøåì è ñòàâøèé ôóíäàìåíòîì àìåðèêàíñêîé ñòðàòåãèè â õîäå êðèçèñà, áûë íå ïðîñòî ïîëèòè÷åñêèì ïëàíîì. Ýòî áûë òàêæå îòâåò Ðàéñ ëàãåðÿì åå ïðîòèâíèêîâ â àäìèíèñòðàöèè Áóøà. Ðàéñ, çàÿâèë âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûé ÷èíîâíèê â àäìèíèñòðàöèè, "íàìåòèëà ïîçèöèþ, ñîâñåì íå ïîõîæóþ íà îáû÷íûé Ãîñäåïàðòàìåíò", ïîäõîä, óäîâëåòâîðÿþùèé êîíñåðâàòîðîâ, âêëþ÷àÿ âèöå-ïðåçèäåíòà Äèêà ×åéíè, äîáèâàþùåãîñÿ ñèëüíîé àìåðèêàíñêîé ïîääåðæêè Èçðàèëÿ.

 ïîñëåäíèå ÷åòûðå íåäåëè, â òî âðåìÿ êàê Ðàéñ áüåòñÿ íàä áëèæíåâîñòî÷íûì êðèçèñîì, îêàçàëîñü, ÷òî îíà ïûòàåòñÿ áûòü íå òîëüêî ìèðîòâîðöåì çà ãðàíèöåé, íî è ïîñðåäíèêîì ìåæäó ñîïåðíè÷àþùèìè ñòîðîíàìè ó ñåáÿ äîìà.

Ïðîòèâîäåéñòâèå Âàøèíãòîíà ïðåêðàùåíèþ îãíÿ è åãî òâåðäàÿ ïîääåðæêà Èçðàèëÿ îñëîæíèëè Ðàéñ êîíòàêòû ñ äðóãèìè ñòðàíàìè, âêëþ÷àÿ íåêîòîðûõ ñîþçíèêîâ ÑØÀ, â ïîèñêå ôîðìóëû, êîòîðàÿ îñòàíîâèò íàñèëèå è îáåñïå÷èò äëèòåëüíîå ïðåêðàùåíèå îãíÿ.

 íåäàâíèõ ïîåçäêàõ íà Áëèæíèé Âîñòîê Ðàéñ ñîïðîâîæäàëè äâå ïåðñîíû ñ î÷åíü ðàçíûìè òî÷êàìè çðåíèÿ íà êîíôëèêò: Ýëèîò Àáðàìñ, âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûé ïðåäñòàâèòåëü Ñîâåòà íàöèîíàëüíîé áåçîïàñíîñòè, è Äýâèä Óýë÷, êàäðîâûé äèïëîìàò è áûâøèé ïîñîë â Åãèïòå, ÿâëÿþùèéñÿ çàìåñòèòåëåì ãîññåêðåòàðÿ ïî áëèæíåâîñòî÷íûì âîïðîñàì.

Óýë÷ îòñòàèâàåò òðàäèöèîííóþ ïîçèöèþ Ãîñäåïàðòàìåíòà: ÑØÀ äîëæíû áûòü íåéòðàëüíûì ïîñðåäíèêîì íà Áëèæíåì Âîñòîêå. Àáðàìñ, íåîêîíñåðâàòîð, òåñíî ñâÿçàííûé ñ ×åéíè, äîáèâàåòñÿ îò àäìèíèñòðàöèè îêàçàíèÿ ïîääåðæêè Èçðàèëþ. Âî âðåìÿ ïîåçäîê Ðàéñ îí íàõîäèëñÿ â ïðÿìîì êîíòàêòå ñ àïïàðàòîì ×åéíè.

Èñòî÷íèê â àäìèíèñòðàöèè ðàññêàçàë, êàê âî âðåìÿ ïîåçäêè, âêëþ÷àÿ äèñêóññèþ, ïðîøåäøóþ 29 èþëÿ â íîìåðå Ðàéñ "Ðàáèí" â èåðóñàëèìñêîì îòåëå David Citadel Hotel, îòêóäà îòêðûâàåòñÿ ïàíîðàìíûé âèä íà Ñòàðûé ãîðîä, Óýë÷ è Àáðàìñ âûñòóïàëè ñèìâîëè÷íî: Óýë÷ âûñêàçûâàë àðàáñêóþ òî÷êó çðåíèÿ, â Àáðàìñ âûðàæàë èçðàèëüñêóþ ïîçèöèþ.

Ðàéñ íàçíà÷èëà Àáðàìñà â Ñîâåò íàöèîíàëüíîé áåçîïàñíîñòè â 2002 ãîäó, êîãäà îíà áûëà ñîâåòíèêîì ïî íàöèîíàëüíîé áåçîïàñíîñòè. Åãî âîçâðàùåíèå íà ãîñóäàðñòâåííóþ ñëóæáó ñòàëî íåîæèäàííîñòüþ. Êîãäà ïðåçèäåíò Áóø ñòàðøèé ïîìèëîâàë Àáðàìñà â 1992 ãîäó â ñâÿçè ñ ðîëüþ, êîòîðóþ îí èãðàë â èñòîðèè "Èðàí-êîíòðàñ" â 1980-å ãîäû, Àáðàìñ çàÿâèë, ÷òî íèêîãäà áîëüøå íå áóäåò çàíèìàòüñÿ ïîëèòèêîé.

Èñòî÷íèêè â Ãîñäåïå óòâåðæäàþò, ÷òî Àáðàìñ ñëóæèò áóôåðîì ìåæäó Ðàéñ è íåîêîíñåðâàòîðàìè, êðèòèêóþùèìè åå êóðñ. "Ãåíèé Ýëèîòà Àáðàìñà â òîì, ÷òî îí Ýëèîò Àáðàìñ, – çàÿâèë âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûé èñòî÷íèê â àäìèíèñòðàöèè. – Êàê ìîæíî îáâèíèòü åãî â íåäîñòàòî÷íîé ïîääåðæêå Èçðàèëÿ?"

Íåñêîëüêî ÷èíîâíèêîâ Ãîñäåïàðòàìåíòà â ÷àñòíîì ïîðÿäêå âîçðàæàþò ïðîòèâ àêöåíòà, êîòîðûé àäìèíèñòðàöèÿ äåëàåò íà Èçðàèëü, è îòìå÷àþò, ÷òî Âàøèíãòîí íå ãîâîðèò ñ Ñèðèåé â ïîïûòêå óðåãóëèðîâàòü êðèçèñ. Äàìàñê äàâíî îêàçûâàåò ïîääåðæêó "Õèçáàëëå", è ïðåäûäóùèå êîíôëèêòû ìåæäó ýòîé îðãàíèçàöèåé è Èçðàèëåì áûëè óðåãóëèðîâàíû ïóòåì ÷åëíî÷íîé äèïëîìàòèè ñ Ñèðèåé.

Äâå íåäåëè íàçàä Ðàéñ äàëà Ñòèâåíó Ñå÷ó, ïîâåðåííîìó â äåëàõ ïîñîëüñòâà ÑØÀ â Äàìàñêå, óêàçàíèå ïîäñòóïèòüñÿ ê ñèðèéñêîìó ìèíèñòðó èíîñòðàííûõ äåë Âàëèäó àëü Ìóàëëåìó â Äàìàñêå. Îíè âñòðåòèëèñü, íî Ìóàëëåì "íå ïðîäåìîíñòðèðîâàë íèêàêèõ ïðèçíàêîâ, ÷òî ïåðåãîâîðû áóäóò õîòÿ áû óìåðåííî êîíñòðóêòèâíûìè", çàÿâèë âûñîêîïîñòàâëåííûé èñòî÷íèê â àäìèíèñòðàöèè, è ñ òåõ ïîð íèêàêèõ ïîïûòîê íå ïðåäïðèíèìàëîñü.

Íàïðÿæåííîñòü â ðåãèîíå è òðåíèÿ â àäìèíèñòðàöèè ÿâíî óòîìèëè Ðàéñ, è ïîðîé îíà ãîâîðèò â íåõàðàêòåðíîé äëÿ íåå ëè÷íîé è ýìîöèîíàëüíîé ìàíåðå. Ïîñëå ñîâåùàíèÿ â îòåëå Ðàéñ, Àáðàìñ, Óýë÷ è àìåðèêàíñêèé ïîñîë â Èçðàèëå Ðè÷àðä Äæîíñ îáåäàëè ñ ïðåìüåð-ìèíèñòðîì Ýõóäîì Îëüìåðòîì. Òàì Ðàéñ ïðîÿâèëà ðåäêóþ âñïûøêó ðàçäðàæåíèÿ. Êîãäà Îëüìåðò îòâåòèë íà åå ïðîñüáó ïðèîñòàíîâèòü áîìáàðäèðîâêè íà 48 ÷àñîâ, çàÿâèâ, ÷òî Èçðàèëü ïðåäóïðåæäàåò æèòåëåé î íåîáõîäèìîñòè ïîêèíóòü ñâîè äîìà, Ðàéñ, ïî ñëîâàì àìåðèêàíñêèõ èñòî÷íèêîâ, ïîêà÷àëà ãîëîâîé.

"Ñëóøàéòå, ó íàñ áûë òàêîé îïûò ñ "Êàòðèíîé" – ìû äóìàëè, ÷òî âñå äåëàåì ïðàâèëüíî, – ïî èõ ñëîâàì, ñêàçàëà îíà. – Íî âûÿñíèëîñü, ÷òî ìíîãèå, êòî õî÷åò óåõàòü, íå ìîãóò óåõàòü".

Õîòÿ Ðàéñ íàïðÿìóþ íå ó÷àñòâîâàëà â ìåðàõ ïðàâèòåëüñòâà ïî ëèêâèäàöèè ïîñëåäñòâèé óðàãàíà "Êàòðèíà", ïðîøëûì ëåòîì îíà ñêàçàëà êîëëåãàì, ÷òî âîçìóùåíà ìåäëåííîé ðåàêöèåé, è ïðîñèëà Áóøà ñäåëàòü áîëüøå äëÿ îáëåã÷åíèÿ æèçíè ìåñòíîãî íàñåëåíèÿ, çàïåðòîãî â çàòîïëåííîì ãîðîäå, ñðåäè êîòîðîãî ìíîãî ÷åðíîêîæèõ.

Ðàéñ ïîëó÷èëà îò Èçðàèëÿ ïåðåðûâ, êîòîðîãî äîáèâàëàñü, íî îí îêàçàëñÿ íåäîëãîâå÷íûì. Åäâà åå ñàìîëåò ïîêèíóë âîçäóøíîå ïðîñòðàíñòâî Èçðàèëÿ, áîìáàðäèðîâêè âîçîáíîâèëèñü, õîòÿ íà ïðîòÿæåíèè 48 ÷àñîâ áûëè íå òàêèìè èíòåíñèâíûìè.

Íåêîòîðûå êîíñåðâàòîðû ðåçêî êðèòèêóþò Ðàéñ çà èçëèøíåå äàâëåíèå íà Èçðàèëü ñ òðåáîâàíèåì ïðåêðàòèòü âîåííóþ îïåðàöèþ â Ëèâàíå. "Êîíäè – íà ñâàëêó. Âíåøíåïîëèòè÷åñêèå êîíñåðâàòîðû â Ãîñäåïå ïåðåõâàòèëè ïðîãðàììó ó Áóøà" – ãëàñèë 25 èþëÿ çàãîëîâîê íà îáëîæêå îíëàéíîâîé âåðñèè åæåíåäåëüíèêà Insight Magazine, êîòîðûé èçäàåò ãàçåòà The Washington Times.

"Ïî íåé áüþò òå, êòî ñ÷èòàåò, ÷òî íûíåøíèé êðèçèñ áóäåò óðåãóëèðîâàí ëèøü ñòðàòåãè÷åñêîé ïîáåäîé Èçðàèëÿ ïðè ïîääåðæêå ÑØÀ, – çàÿâèë Ààðîí Äýâèä Ìèëëåð, èññëåäîâàòåëü àíàëèòè÷åñêîãî öåíòðà Woodrow Wilson Center, êîòîðûé áûë ñîâåòíèêîì ïî àðàáî-èçðàèëüñêèì îòíîøåíèÿì ïðè òðåõ ïðåäûäóùèõ ïðåçèäåíòàõ. – Ýòà òåîðèÿ ãëàñèò, ÷òî, åñëè "Õèçáàëëà" íå îáðàòèòñÿ â ñòðàòåãè÷åñêîå îòñòóïëåíèå, ýòî áóäåò óæàñíûì ïîðàæåíèåì â âîéíå ñ òåððîðèçìîì".

Íî, äîáàâèë Ìèëëåð, "ïî íåé áüþò òàêæå åâðîïåéöû è àðàáû, êîòîðûå ñ÷èòàþò, ÷òî îíà áåçäåéñòâóåò".

Ïîïóëÿðíûé èìèäæ Ðàéñ êàê áåçóïðå÷íî îäåòîãî, âûäåðæàííîãî è ýíåðãè÷íîãî àìåðèêàíñêîãî äèïëîìàòà – èìèäæ, êîòîðûé ïîääåðæèâàþò åå ñîâåòíèêè, – óñòóïàåò ìåñòî áîëåå ìðà÷íîé ôèãóðå, ïûòàþùåéñÿ, êàê è ìíîãèå åå ïðåäøåñòâåííèêè, óðåãóëèðîâàòü áëèæíåâîñòî÷íûé êîíôëèêò.

Òùàòåëüíî ïðîðàáîòàííûå Ðàéñ òåìû äëÿ ðàçãîâîðà ïîðîé ðóøàòñÿ. Åå çàìå÷àíèå, ÷òî èçðàèëüñêî-ëèâàíñêàÿ âîéíà ÿâëÿåòñÿ "ðîäîâûìè ìóêàìè íîâîãî Áëèæíåãî Âîñòîêà" – â ìîìåíò, êîãäà òåëåêàíàëû ïîêàçûâàëè òðóïû ëèâàíñêèõ äåòåé, – ïîðîäèëè íàñìåøëèâûå è äàæå ðàñèñòñêèå êàðèêàòóðû. Ïàëåñòèíñêàÿ ãàçåòà "Àëü Êóäñ" èçîáðàçèëà Ðàéñ, êîòîðàÿ áåðåìåííà âîîðóæåííîé îáåçüÿíîé, ñ ïîäïèñüþ: "Ðàéñ ãîâîðèò î ðîæäåíèè íîâîãî Áëèæíåãî Âîñòîêà".

Îíà ðàññåðäèëàñü, êîãäà æóðíàëèñò, ïîñëå òîãî êàê îáåùàííîå Èçðàèëåì 48-÷àñîâîå ïðåêðàùåíèå áîìáàðäèðîâîê êîí÷èëîñü íà 36 ÷àñîâ ðàíüøå, ñïðîñèë åå, ÷òî îíà ïî÷óâñòâîâàëà, êîãäà óçíàëà îá ýòîì. "Ìíå óæå çàäàâàëè âîïðîñû î òîì, ÷òî ÿ ÷óâñòâóþ, – ñêàçàëà îíà. – Âîïðîñ â òîì, ÷òî ìû äåëàåì. À äåëàåì ìû ñëåäóþùåå: âûÿñíÿåì ó ïðàâèòåëüñòâà Èçðàèëÿ, ïðèäåðæèâàåòñÿ îíî ýòîãî ñîãëàøåíèÿ èëè íåò".

Ïåðåä îòúåçäîì íà Áëèæíèé Âîñòîê îíà, ñ îòòåíêîì îáðå÷åííîñòè, ñêàçàëà çíàêîìîìó, ÷òî êàæäîìó ãîññåêðåòàðþ ðàíî èëè ïîçäíî ïðèõîäèòñÿ ïîñðåäíè÷àòü â êîíôëèêòå â ýòîì ðåãèîíå. "Ïîõîæå, ïðèøëà ìîÿ î÷åðåäü".
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A la guerre comme a la guerre èëè âòîðàÿ ðåäàêöèÿ Çàáóãîðíîâà
Zabougornov
Äîáðûé Àäìèíèñòðàòîð (èíîãäà)


: 06.03.2005
: 12000
: Îáåð-ãðóïïåí-äîöåíò, ñò. ðóêîâîäèòåëü ãðóïïû ñêîðîñòíûõ ñâèíãåðîâ, îí æå Çàáàøëåâè÷ Îöààò Ïîýëåâè÷

: , 16 2006, 14:44:06     :

http://www.newsru.co.il/mideast/16aug2006/welch.html

Çàìåñòèòåëü Ãîññåêðåòàðÿ ÑØÀ ïî áëèæíåâîñòî÷íûì äåëàì Äýâèä Óýë÷ çàÿâèë, ÷òî âûñòóïëåíèÿ ëèäåðîâ "Õèçáàëëû", â êîòîðûõ ñîäåðæèòñÿ îòêàç âûïîëíÿòü ïóíêòû ðåçîëþöèè ÑÁ ÎÎÍ ¹1701, âûçûâàþò ñåðüåçíóþ îçàáî÷åííîñòü âî âñåì ìèðå. Âìåñòå ñ òåì, îí ïîä÷åðêíóë, ÷òî îòâåòñòâåííîñòü çà ñèòóàöèþ â Ëèâàíå íåñåò ïðàâèòåëüñòâî ýòîé ñòðàíû.

Ïî ìíåíèþ Óýë÷à, èìåííî ïðàâèòåëüñòâî Ëèâàíà äîëæíî â êðàò÷àéøèå ñðîêè äîáèòüñÿ îò "Õèçáàëëû" âûâîäà âîîðóæåííûõ ñèë ýòîé îðãàíèçàöèè èç Þæíîãî Ëèâàíà è ðàçîðóæåíèÿ áîåâèêîâ.

Ñëåäóåò îòìåòèòü, ÷òî â òåêñòå ðåçîëþöèè 1701 íåò íåïîñðåäñòâåííîãî óïîìèíàíèÿ î âûâîäå ñèë "Õèçáàëëû" èç Þæíîãî Ëèâàíà. Â ðåçîëþöèè ãîâîðèòñÿ î "ñîçäàíèè ìåæäó "ñèíåé ëèíèåé" è ðåêîé Ëèòàíè çîíû, ñâîáîäíîé îò ëþáûõ âîîðóæåííûõ ôîðìèðîâàíèé è îðóæèÿ, êðîìå òàêîâûõ îò ïðàâèòåëüñòâà Ëèâàíà è UNIFIL". "Õèçáàëëà", ñîãëàñíî ýòîé ðåçîëþöèè, ëèøü ïðèçûâàåòñÿ ê "ïîëíîìó ïðåêðàùåíèþ âîåííûõ äåéñòâèé". Ðàçîðóæåíèå "Õèçáàëëû" ïðåäóñìàòðèâàëîñü ðåçîëþöèåé 1559 îò 2004-ãî ãîäà, êîòîðàÿ òàê è íå áûëà âûïîëíåíà.

Ðåçîëþöèÿ 1701, ïðåæäå âñåãî, ðåãëàìåíòèðóåò óñëîâèÿ ïðåêðàùåíèÿ îãíÿ, ãëàâíûì èç êîòîðûõ ÿâëÿåòñÿ ââîä ìåæäóíàðîäíûõ ìèðîòâîð÷åñêèõ ñèë è ïîäðàçäåëåíèé ëèâàíñêîé ðåãóëÿðíîé àðìèè â Þæíûé Ëèâàí.  òî æå âðåìÿ, â ðåçîëþöèè ãîâîðèòñÿ î íåîáõîäèìîñòè "ïîëíîãî âûïîëíåíèÿ ñîîòâåòñòâóþùèõ óñëîâèé Òàèôñêèõ ñîãëàøåíèé è ðåçîëþöèé 1559 (2004) è 1680 (2006), òðåáóþùèõ ðàçîðóæåíèÿ âñåõ âîîðóæåííûõ ôîðìèðîâàíèé â Ëèâàíå".

Â÷åðà Äýâèä Óýë÷ åùå ðàç ïîä÷åðêíóë, ÷òî ÑØÀ íå ïëàíèðóþò îòïðàâëÿòü ñâîèõ ìèðîòâîðöåâ â Ëèâàí.
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